Yankees OF Curtis Granderson is expected to miss 10 weeks after getting hit by a pitch and fracturing his right forearm on Sunday. Ten weeks from the date of the injury brings us to May 5, and for planning purposes, let's be a bit conservative about Granderson's recovery and assume a May 15 return. That would keep Granderson out for about a quarter of the 2013 season.
Most projection systems seemed to have Granderson in the 35-homer, 100-RBI, 100-run range before the injury. Take away a quarter of those, and we're down to about 27, with something like 75-80 homers and RBI. Granderson's stolen-base projections were hard to figure, as he's had 12-25-10 in his last three seasons. Let's assume that he'll get a dozen even in an abbreviated season, and plan for the sub-.250 batting average for which we had already braced ourselves.
Before the weekend, I had Granderson ranked as OF21 - making him a low-end second outfielder in standard mixed leagues - and 60th overall. Due to his expected absence and the uncertainty that comes with any injury, he's been moved to OF35/104th overall, just behind Baltimore's Chris Davis. Granderson will probably be fine when he returns, but a 30-40 game absence can't be easily dismissed.
Don't spend too much time trying to make a score on Granderson's real-life replacement. According to the Yankees' website, the in-house candidates are journeymen Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz, along with non-prospects Zoilo Almonte, Melky Mesa and Ronnier Mustelier. We'll need to let spring training play out further to see which one (or two or three) of those guys will get Granderson's at bats, but none of them are worth considering as more than temporary replacements in AL-only leagues. Keep an eye on Mustelier's bat in March - he's older (28) than Almonte and Mesa, and his numbers suggest that he's less likely to be overmatched as a big leaguer in the short term. The Yankees like Mesa's defense, but he'll strike out enough to make Granderson look like a contact hitter.
Unfortunately, GM Brian Cashman said Sunday that SS/3B Eduardo Nunez isn't an option to replace Granderson. Boooooo, Brian Cashman!