UConn vs. Marquette pick and prediction: Huskies feel inevitable in Big East

UConn vs. Marquette Odds

Saturday, March 16, 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

This will be the year's third meeting between the Huskies and Golden Eagles. In the first, the Huskies hosted and laid waste to Marquette, leading by as many as 29 points behind a dominant two-way performance.

Marquette put up a better fight in the rematch but was shorthanded. All-American point guard Tyler Kolek wasn't in the lineup, battling an oblique injury.

He's remained sidelined, even through Friday's semifinal matchup with Providence. No word about his status has come through, leading most (including me) to believe he won't return until the NCAA Tournament.

With or without Kolek, Connecticut holds several advantages in this game, the largest of which is on the offensive glass. Marquette is the second-worst defensive-rebounding team in the Big East, while UConn is the league's best offensive-rebounding team.

This leads to put-back buckets and kick-out 3s from the conference's best 3-point shooting team (38%).

Those extra possessions, especially when they lead to such immediate high-value scoring chances, are a significant reason the UConn offense has risen to tops nationally in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric.

The Huskies' attack is old-school, looking more like something Danny Hurley's father ran in his heyday than many other teams in college basketball. UConn runs long, developing set plays, with passes that swing the ball and defenders back and forth until UConn sets up the right matchup for one of its playmakers.

Hurley's scheme can manufacture good looks for shooters, slashers, or dominant big man Donovan Clingan. Connecticut seems to have a counter, regardless of your defensive strategy or personnel.

With Kolek sidelined, the Marquette offense has lost its identity.

However, at Madison Square Garden this week, the Golden Eagles have played well enough to survive upset bids from Villanova and Providence. Neither of those teams is liable to force you into a shootout, and Marquette's ad-libbed, Kolek-free game plan put Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro in the right spot enough times for the Golden Eagles to secure two narrow wins.

Facing a more profound, bigger, sharper UConn team is a much tougher ask.

Even if Kolek dons his best Willis Reed impression and dresses, UConn feels inevitable.

Yes, those kinds of statements often get made to look stupid in March. I'm not guaranteeing anything for the rest of the month, but on Saturday, UConn looks poised to win the elusive Big East crown, the program's first since 2011, against the Marquette team that beat the Huskies en route to last year's tournament title.

I'm on the Huskies at the opening number of -8.5 and would take them up to -10.

Pick: Connecticut -8.5 | Play to -10

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