NCAAF News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Prediction and Odds: In a Battle Between Winless and Unbeaten, can the Bearkats Keep It Close Against the 4-0 Flames?

Originally posted on Gridiron Heroics | By Alec Musa | Last updated 10/5/23

The Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4) will look for their first win of the season against the Liberty Flames (4-0) on Thursday night. Sam Houston State fell apart in last Thursday’s 35-28 overtime loss to the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The Gamecocks outscored the Bearkats 28-7 in the second half. Meanwhile, Liberty blew the doors off the Florida International Panthers last Saturday. The Flames ran wild, going for 364 rushing yards, with running backs Billy Lucas and Quinton Cooley each crossing the century mark.

Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Odds and Match Details

Team	Spread	Total	MoneyLine
Sam Houston State	+20.5 -110	O46.5 -105	+1000
Liberty	-20.5 -110	U46.5 -115	-1800
Odds Subject to Change

Fixture: Sam Houston State @ Liberty

Date and Time: October 5, 2023, at 7:00 p.m. EST

Location: Williams Stadium

Field Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: Partially Cloudy, 68 degrees

Key Stats

Sam Houston State Bearkats

The Sam Houston State Bearkats score a conference-low 9.5 points per game. Quarterback Keegan Shoemaker has been brutal, throwing for 476 yards and two scores with four interceptions in his team’s first four games. They are also dead last in the C-USA in rushing yards per game (66) and rushing yards per attempt (2.0).

Defensively, Sam Houston has done a much better job on defense. They allow 25 points per game while keeping passers to 177 yards per game. They also keep backfields to 4.5 yards per rush attempt. The Bearkats are in the top half of the C-USA in yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. However, they average just one turnover forced per game.

Liberty Flames

The Liberty Flames score a conference-best 40.0 points per game. Despite completing just 58% of his passes, quarterback Kaidon Salter has thrown for 11 touchdowns against one pick. He also has five scores and 268 yards on the ground. The Flames lead the conference with 271 rushing yards per game. They also do a fantastic job protecting the football.

The Flames trail just Jacksonville State for the fewest points allowed per game (18.5). Opposing passers have gotten held to a laughable 49% completion percentage and 152 passing yards per game against Liberty. Liberty also does a great job against the run. They hold their opponents to 4.2 yards per rush attempt while forcing a conference-best 3.0 turnovers per game.

Game Prediction

I like the under in this matchup. The Liberty Flames have been fantastic on offense, but their defense is one of the best in the C-USA. Meanwhile, the Sam Houston State Bearkats have been abysmal on offense all season. If they can hold up just a bit against the Flames’ unreal rushing attack, I like this game to go under the total, mainly if Sam Houston stays under double-digit points.