Predicting the 2018 Academy Award nominees

In a year of unprecedented upheaval, very few insiders are willing to declare a frontrunner for the top prize. But when it comes to the contenders, the field is pretty firmly set. If one of the top seven titles isn’t announced on January 23, there will be gasps in the auditorium. If there’s an eighth nomination (and that will depend on vote totals), that spot will be fought over by “Darkest Hour,” “The Florida Project,” “The Big Sick,” "Mudbound” and “I, Tonya.” There are compelling arguments for each, but “Darkest Hour” just feels more Oscar-y than the others.

Predicted nominations for Best Picture: 

• “Dunkirk”
• “Lady Bird
• “Call Me By Your Name”
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• “Get Out”
• “The Post”
• “The Shape of Water”
• “Darkest Hour”

For weeks, this has been considered the most settled of the main categories, but “All the Money in the World” screeners went out really late due to the unexpected Plummer reshoots. Now that Academy members have seen it, some insiders say they’re talking up Michelle Williams’s performance as worthy of a win (important to note that this chatter was happening before the salary controversy, which broke five days before the voting deadline). If Williams gets in, who falls out? Probably Robbie, who’s terrific in the divisive “I, Tonya.”

Predicted nominations for Best Actress: 

• Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Soairse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
• Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Meryl Streep, “The Post”
• Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

This was supposed to be Gary Oldman’s year, but his stunning portrayal of Winston Churchill (under loads of latex) is suddenly getting outshined by young Timothée Chalamet’s turn as a love-struck teenager in the magnificent “Call Me By Your Name.” Both have more than enough support to get nominated, but the rest of the field could feature a surprise or two. Daniel Kaluuya from "Get Out" is very close to a lock. Hanks is Hanks, but “The Post” is Streep’s show. Daniel Day-Lewis should be a lock, but “Phantom Thread” went out so late to voters that some insiders say he’s in danger of falling outside the top five. James Franco could make the cut, but recent allegations of sexual misconduct will knock him off a lot of voters’ lists.

Predicted nominations for Best Actor: 

• Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
• Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
• Tom Hanks, “The Post”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Janney and Metcalf have won multiple Emmys throughout their illustrious careers, but neither has been nominated for an Academy Award. One of these brilliant ladies will have won one come March, which means the only suspense here is who’s playing for third, fourth and fifth place. This is more wide open than it might seem. “Phantom Thread” was a latecomer to awards season, but it’s hard to believe that anyone who’s seen it would leave Lesley Manville off their top five. Hong Chau has hung in there despite the commercial and critical travails of “Downsizing,” but her luck could run out here. Hunter is an Academy favorite, and she’s brilliant in “The Big Sick.” Ditto Spencer and “The Shape of Water.” “Mudbound” got a tepid awards push by Netflix, but Mary J. Blige has a high enough profile to potentially overcome this.

Predicted nominations for Best Supporting Actress: 

• Alison Janney, “I, Tonya”
• Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
• Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
• Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Dafoe racked up critics group wins early in awards season, but Rockwell seems to have seized the momentum over the last couple of weeks. Michael Stuhlbarg should be here for delivering one of the most heartbreaking monologues in film history in “Call Me By Your Name,” but he’s an even longer shot than Kevin Spacey replacement Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World.” If either cracks the final five, Harrelson will be the one to go. There’s only the slimmest of chances both make the cut (although there is some talk that Stuhlbarg might be outpacing Hammer in preferential voting).

Predicted nominations for Best Supporting Actor: 

• Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
• Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”
• Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

The DGA nominations are usually an accurate predictor of the AMPAS’ Best Director nominees, but it just seems extraordinary that the Academy would again nominate a Steven Spielberg movie for Best Picture without nominating Spielberg himself (as they did in 2015 with “Bridge of Spies”). First choices will rule the day here, so it’s up to the old-timers: will they rally around Spielberg, or are they already committed to “Dunkirk?” And did the “Three Billboard” backlash pick up steam too late in the nomination process? If it’s between Martin McDonagh and Spielberg, how do you go against Spielberg?

Predicted nominations for Best Director: 

• Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
• Steven Spielberg, “The Post”
• Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
• Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird”
• Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

This is usually the category where an underdog like “The Big Sick” could sneak in for a nomination, but it’s packed with heavyweight contenders this year. All five of these predicted nominees are locks or near-locks for Best Picture. Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece “Dunkirk” has inexplicably been written off as a potential nominee here. If “The Big Sick” duo of Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon crack the top five, “The Post” would be the casualty. This would be a stunning upset.

Predicted nominations for Best Original Screenplay: 

• Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
• Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
• Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”
• Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, “The Post”

For fanboys hoping this might be the year a comic book movie gets nominated for Best Picture… well, it won’t be. But the elegiac “Logan” could make the cut this year if “Molly’s Game” and “The Disaster Artist” – which seem to have as many supporters as detractors – come up short on votes. James Ivory is a lock to get a shot at his fourth Oscar win with "Call Me By Your Name,” while Virgil Williams and Dee Rees of "Mudbound" should receive enough first-place votes to vie for their first nomination. The well-liked sleeper hit “Wonder” will round out the group.

Predicted nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay:

• James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”
• Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
• Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, “Mudbound”
• Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, “The Disaster Artist”
• Stephen Chbosky and Steve Conrad and Jack Thorne, “Wonder”

Brett Morgen’s “Jane,” about revolutionary primatologist Jane Goodall, has been playing to raves since premiering at September’s Toronto International Film Festival, and would appear to be the frontrunner. But this category is notoriously tricky to predict, and late campaigning has reportedly boosted the profiles of a few dark horses. French New Wave legend Agnès Varda’s “Faces Places” may be the sentimental favorite (she turns ninety in May), while the sobering Syrian docs “City of Ghosts” and “Last Men in Aleppo” are both serious contenders. “Icarus,” about the Russian doping scandal that got the country’s national team banned from the 2018 Winter Olympics, should round out the group.

Predicted nominations for Best Documentary: 

• “Jane”
• “City of Ghosts”
• “Faces Places”
• “Icarus”
• “Last Men in Aleppo”

Pixar’s critically acclaimed “Coco” is the prohibitive favorite to win it all in March, but which four films will get to claim “it’s just an honor to be nominated?” The animated Van Gogh biopic “Loving Vincent” has been a surprise art house smash, while the Afghanistan-set drama “The Breadwinner” is reportedly winning over Academy members. “The Lego Batman Movie” did well commercially and critically, which should get be sufficient for a nomination. The final spot is a toss-up between “Ferdinand” and “Mary and the Witch’s Flower” (sorry “Boss Baby”). The celebrated Japanese production should prevail.

Predicted nominations for Best Animated Feature: 

• “Coco”
• “The Breadwinner”
• “Loving Vincent”
• “LEGO Batman”
• “Mary and the Witch’s Flower”

Traditionally a crapshoot, this year’s Foreign Film category would appear to have three locks in Ruben Östlund’s audacious satire “The Square,” Sebastián Lelio’s moving “A Fantastic Woman” and Samuel Maoz’s controversial military drama, “Foxtrot.” There is no such thing as “smart money” when it comes to betting on nominees in this category, but it would be surprising to see Fatih Akin’s acclaimed (and Golden Globe winner) “In the Fade” fall outside of the final five. Andrey Zvyagintsev, nominated in 2014 for “Leviathan,” has the best shot at rounding out this group with his drama “Loveless.”

Predicted nominations for Best Foreign Film: 

• “A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
• “The Square” (Sweden)
• “Foxtrot” (Israel)
• “Loveless” (Russia)
• “In the Fade” (Germany)

“The Greatest Showman” entered awards season as a critical laughingstock, but the corny musical about P.T. Barnum has won the hearts of moviegoers due in large part to its catchy songs. While most insiders believe “Remember Me” from “Coco” is the frontrunner, “This Is Me” is gaining. But will this furious neck-and-neck finish between show tunes produce an upset victory for singer-songwriter Sufjan Stevens’s “The Mystery of Love?” These are the three locks for nominations. Filling out the field should be “Mighty River” and “Evermore,” though keep an eye out for Andra Day and Common’s empowering “Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall.”

Predicted nominations for Best Original Song: 

• “Remember Me” from “Coco”
• “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”
• “The Mystery of Love” from “Call Me By Your Name”
• “Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
• “Evermore” from “Beauty and the Beast”

Hans Zimmer and Alexandre Desplat are mortal locks for, respectively, their eleventh and ninth nominations, and it’s a near certainty that Radiohead’s Jonny Greenwood will finally get his first nod after controversial snubs for "There Will Be Blood," "The Master" and "Inherent Vice." The final two spots are up for grabs. The legendary John Williams will split votes between “The Last Jedi” and “The Post,” which should open the door for Dario Marianelli (“Darkest Hour”) and Michael Giacchino (“Coco”). If Williams gets in, it would most likely be over Marianelli.

Predicted nominations for Best Score: 

• Hans Zimmer, "Dunkirk"
• Alexandre Desplat, "The Shape of Water"
• Jonny Greenwood, "Phantom Thread"
• Dario Marianelli, "Darkest Hour"