'TNF' best bets: Woof, woof! Bark Bets backs the home 'dog

NFL Week 4 is upon us, and it figures to be an absolute treat. Some of these primetime games have been duds up to this point, but these are the two teams vying for the NFC North crown this year. Yes, we're comfortable already saying it's either Green Bay or Detroit winning this division: have you seen who else is in it? Minnesota and Chicago are both 0-3 with serious defensive issues, among other things.

Meanwhile, the Lions and Packers both sit at 2-1, so while this game is early, it's going to go a long way to determining who wins this division.

Hitting the home 'dog here

Detroit is favored on the road, currently two-point favorites. We get it. The Lions are one of the darlings of the NFL and coming off a decisive 20-6 win over Atlanta. We certainly like the Lions and the weapons they've got on offense, but there's some value here in backing the Packers.

Last week's comeback win over New Orleans, in which Green Bay scored 18 unanswered in the final 11 minutes to win 18-17, is the type of win that can build a momentum run. Jordan Love has looked poised and explosive in his first season as a starter, and it seems he's getting some reinforcements back tonight.

Aaron Jones is set to return, and with how inefficient AJ Dillon has been: that's a big deal. Then there's WR Christian Watson set to make his 2023 debut. Watson was one of the league's most explosive catchers last year, and the hope is that in Year Two his hands are a bit more reliable.

The Lions have had serious issues slowing down tight ends, allowing the most catches and yards to the position since they lost star safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Rookie TE Luke Musgrave has been an impact player off the bat for the Packers and figures to remain so here.

In a division game between two evenly-matched teams, we're opting for the home dogs.

Betting: Green Bay moneyline (+110 DraftKings)

In the news ...

Damian Lillard traded to Bucks — After weeks (or months?) of rumors and reports, the domino finally fell: Damian Lillard has been traded. Rather than Miami, who Lillard preferred, the Bucks swooped in to grab the All-Pro guard, pairing him with Giannis Antetokounmpo to form a menacing duo in the Eastern Conference. Prior to the trade, Milwaukee was +850 to win the NBA title in 2024. Now? +390. Portland received Jrue Holiday from the Bucks and Deandre Ayton from the Suns as part of the three-team trade that included Phoenix. The Suns added four depth pieces as part of the move.

Ryder Cup starts early Friday morning — The Ryder Cup action gets going early Friday from Rome, and we're ready to see some competitive golf again! As we look at the matchups and the dynamics between the USA and Europe, we're drawn to betting on the Americans here. The average Official World Golf Ranking for the U.S. is 12.9 compared to 29.25 for the Europeans, and the USA has far more experience on this type of stage. Give us USA to win this weekend at -120.

Ronald Acuna Jr. becomes first member of 40/70 club — We saw history last night in baseball, as Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. swiped his 70th bag of the season, becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 40+ homers and steal 70+ bases. Not only is that impressive versatility, but Acuna became the first player to steal 70 bases since 2009. It's been quite the year for Acuna and Atlanta. The Braves are the World Series favorites at +310 and Acuna is expected to win MVP, with the odds off the board.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. For more content to help fuel your betting picks, follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.