Blue Jays 2024 Projections – Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi

Bassitt is very artistic when it comes to his offerings and repertoire which is what enhances his performances in every matchup he endures. Some go to Las Vegas to see magic shows, and some attend the Rogers Center to see Bassitt work magic using eight-pitch options to carve hitters. Sinker, cutter, curveball, sweeper, slider, split-finger, changeup, and a four-seam fastball are all of his pitch options. Five of the eight options have above a 15% put-away percentage. Five of the eight options have a value of 20+ strikeouts in 2023. This shows the effectiveness of each option, rather than just a working project pitch amongst some stronger offerings.

In 2023, Bassitt recorded a 3.60 ERA with 186 strikeouts and only 59 walks. Similar to Kevin Gausman, he does not allow a ton of free 90s. As we look forward to 2024, it is hard to see Bassitt sway away from this type of performance, however, the intelligence of his repertoire is noted and is somewhat common knowledge throughout the league. In addition to this, the potential of the lack of run support can reduce his projections to a 14-7 record with an ERA around 3.20 and a similar strikeout-to-walk rate. He’s also had a tough start to the season (7.71 ERA with eight earned so far), which he will need to overcome.

Yusei Kikuchi was another individual with similarities to Bassitt from a numbers perspective. He faced 700 hitters within 167 2/3 innings across 32 starts and produced a 3.86 ERA, a great bounce-back after his dreadful 2022 season. Kikuchi struck out 181 hitters while only walking 48 as well as using half of the pitch options that Bassitt works with, which is about average for a major league pitcher. His arsenal options are also very effective and well used, with three of the four pitches sitting above 15% put-away percentage last year and three of the four values finishing with 20+ strikeouts.

Kikuchi is calculated in his counts and is smart in how he works batters. His knowledge of the hitters he faces and his abilities gives him an advantage through the majority of his matchups. He stays on top of the count, starting with a strike which equalled a 59.4% first-pitch strike rate in 2023. The deeper he gets into counts with advantage, the more wiggle room he has to execute his effective off-speed and breaking options.

Kikuchi’s projections for 2024 should be similar to 2023 in the strikeout categories as well as ERA. The win-loss category should be no less than 10 but possibly between 10-13 wins with 7-8 losses. So far he carries one loss with 11 strikeouts, five walks, and one no-decision through two starts in 2024.