Cardinals beat writer upsets Twins fans with Pablo Lopez trade idea

Twins fans and some bloggers are irate with a St. Louis Cardinals reporter who dared put his thoughts on paper when talking about the next moves the Cardinals could make in an attempt to reclaim glory in the National League Central Division. 

John Denton, who has been covering the Cardinals for MLB.com since 2022 and has nearly three decades of experience as a sports reporter, including 11 years as the team reporter for the Orlando Magic, wondered if the Twins would entertain the idea of trading starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. He wrote: 

"What the Cardinals are likely still pondering is what to do with lefty starter Steven Matz, who saw his second straight season in St. Louis marred by injuries. Following a rocky start and a bullpen demotion, Matz pitched well over a seven-start stretch before injuries hit again. Could the Cards flip his relatively modest $11 million annual salary to the cost-cutting Rays (for Tyler Glasnow), to the White Sox (for Dylan Cease) or to the Twins (for long-time St. Louis target Pablo López)?"

That last thought about dealing Steven Matz to the Twins for Lopez generated irritated reactions from fans and bloggers, including one site calling it a "delusional report."

For starters, it doesn't appear to be a report, rather a question of whether the Rays, White Sox or Twins would be willing to deal their respective aces to save money. Is it delusional to think that the Twins, who have outwardly confirmed to fans that the 2024 payroll will be reduced after the franchise record $156 million spent on players in 2023? 

“We’ve pushed our payroll to heights that we had never pushed it before with the support, certainly, of ownership,” Falvey said at the GM meetings in early November. “We know there is some natural ebb and flow to that. Will it be where it was last year? I don’t expect that. I expect it less than that.”

The Twins cutting payroll in 2024 isn't delusional. It's a fact. Lopez probably doesn't make sense as the most likely candidate to be dumped to save money, but floating an idea about a team that is going to spend less in 2024 isn't delusional. 

Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported that the Twins' 2024 payroll could be between $125 million and $140 million. According to FanGraphs, Minnesota's estimated 2024 payroll is $125 million. 

The question to ask is if the Twins plan to reduce payroll only in 2024? Without a TV contract set, there's no telling how much revenue the Twins will lose out on in 2024 and beyond. Losing tens of millions in TV revenue is a surefire way to subtract payroll, which becomes a bigger issue with Lopez after 2024. 

In 2024, Lopez is due to make $8.25 million. Matz, meanwhile, will make $12 million, so trading Lopez for Matz would help the Twins save money next season. But Lopez's pay surges to $21.75 million in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Matz will earn $12 million in 2025 before becoming a free agent. 

If the long game is to cut down on payroll, Lopez being one of the highest-earning Twins (second only to Correa) makes a lot of sense. Denton is probably just a year early with his thought. 

Matz had a 3.86 ERA in 25 games (17 starts) with the Cardinals last season. He had 98 strikeouts and a 1.33 WHIP in 105 innings. Lopez finished seventh in the Cy Young vote with a 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 194 innings. 

The Twins have $100 million in guaranteed money owed to Carlos Correa ($33.3m), Lopez ($8.25m), Byron Buxton ($15.1m), Jorge Polanco ($10.5m), Max Kepler ($10m), Christian Vazquez ($10m) and Chris Paddack ($2.5m). 

Polanco and Kepler seem to be the most likely players to be traded to dump salary because they're on one-year deals. Trading both would save the Twins $20.5 million next season and open up starting jobs for the surplus of young talent in the organization. 

Denton doesn't deserve to be bashed for wondering if a team that historically has gone the cheap route will take the cheap exit again. The idea makes no sense for the Twins if they're looking to contend and save money in 2024, but the long term financial issues the Twins may be facing without a TV rights holder is nothing to scoff at.