Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Gabriel Moreno

This projection expects Moreno's batting average to slightly decline, but account for a little bit more power in the young right-handed batter's swing. His ISO (isolated power) is expected to rise an average of 11 points, while his slugging and OPS will both slightly increase. His OPS hasn't been the most impressive number, despite his ability to hit and get on base at a very solid rate in his short career.

His walk rate is expected to hover around the same clip, while Steamer expects his strikeout rate to decrease by nearly two full points. While his slug is expected to hover around league average, its average is projected to be his career high. Steamer has nearly a 20 point increase in slug, while ZiPS gives Moreno a miniscule decline. 

While not expected to offer a great deal more power, Moreno's batting average and on-base are both indicative of a productive 2024 season at the plate. His aWAR sees a slight increase, likely due to an increase in plate appearances and starts behind home. ZiPS expects Moreno to reduce his number of plate appearances, while Steamer sees nearly 140 more for the young stud.

Why Moreno might outperform his projection

Moreno started slow, and unsurprisingly so. A young player coming off just 78 major league plate appearances with Toronto, it took him a while to get situated with Arizona. 

But Moreno hit .300 or better for the final three straight months of the regular season. He continued to play solidly in the postseason, hitting over half his regular season home run total in the month of October (4), including an iconic "second-chance" home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game three of the NLDS. 

While slug was an issue for him statistically as a season total, he began to come alive in the power department in July and August of 2023. He slugged .522 in July, and raised it to an impressive .612 in August. Being such a young player, he could easily continue an upward trajectory in his slug, pop and power, and with a larger workload, his already elite defense could fund an increase in aWAR, and his overall production at the plate will see more opportunity.

All this to say, Moreno's power could continue to improve. He looked better and better at the plate as the season progressed and eventually became one of Arizona's most clutch hitters. Moreno hit .291 with runners on, .280 with them in scoring position and .290 in high leverage. It wasn't about how he hit the ball, it was when he hit it. Clutch hitting is an inherent blueprint for an excellent player, and a good baseline to improve the more nitty gritty aspects of hitting upon.

Moreno rarely whiffed, and his strikeout rate, chase rate and xBA were all solidly above average. An already consistent contact hitter, some slight tweaks to his swing could make him a terrifying matchup for opposing pitchers, especially left-handers, who Moreno hit .352 against.

Why Moreno might underperform his projection

Coming off such an excellent season defensively, it could be difficult to see him maintain such a high standard. It's possible the defensive metrics will dip, affecting his aWAR.

As far as offensive production is concerned, Moreno's biggest issues come from his ground ball rate and relatively little pop. His ground ball rate was over 55% in 2023. Couple that with below-average sprint speed, and that's a recipe for plenty of ground outs and double play balls, both issues that Gabi struggled with in early 2023.

As a pure hitter, Moreno's metrics are a bit concerning, ranking below average in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and sweet-spot rate. While these are all hitting issues that can be worked on, there is still a potential for a sophomore slump in Gabi's second full season. It's reasonable to think his average could dip, and his tendency to make weaker contact and slug below average could drop his numbers as a whole.

Summary

Moreno's projections offer another productive season, although with only minor improvements in the less impactful aspects of his game. Defensively, we can easily expect him to remain steady behind the plate. Ultimately, 2024 will likely become another instance of "when, not how" for Moreno's production, as his mechanics could hinder his less impactful plate appearances as a whole.