Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Tucker Barnhart

Our playing time projection shows Barnhart getting just 135 plate appearances, a slight increase from his 2023, as he is our de facto winner of the backup camp battle, but still only slated for a smaller workload offensively. 

Barnhart is projected to put up another ineffective slash, going .222/.294/.304/.598. As bad as this might look, all four percentages would be a moderate to significant upgrade from his poor 2023, and even exceed his 2022 season.

Coming off a season where he struck out an astounding 34.1% of the time, he's expected to severely improve his strikeout rate, although 28.2% is still not a number the D-backs would want out of him.

Despite such a brutal projection, he is still projected positive WAR for the first time since 2021 to go along with his "best" offensive numbers since that season.

Why Barnhart might outperform this projection

Barring an injury to Moreno, Barnhart has little to no chance of seeing significantly more plate appearances than his projection. Coming off two terrible offensive seasons, he could be due for a bit of a resurgence at the plate.

Although it would signal improvement for Barnhart, a projected slash that low is well within the range to be outperformed, even with a mediocre-at-best season at the plate. 

The D-backs don't need their backup catcher to be a heavy slugger, but if Barnhart can improve his plate discipline and reach base at a slightly more consistent rate, that could do wonders for his numbers and confidence, and the D-backs offense as a whole.

Oddly, Barnhart boasted reverse splits in 2023, hitting .267 against southpaws, while only putting up .191 against right-handers. This could be an asset for the D-backs, and if he can regain his footing against righties, he could see a bit of an offensive resurgence.

Defensively, Barnhart is coming off a rough season as well, but is only a year removed from a 2019-2022 run of being a very solid defensive catcher, and was the gold glove winner for the Reds in 2017 and 2020. 

He's also familiar with new D-backs' left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez, as he was the starting catcher for the majority of E-Rod's starts back in 2022. 

Even the slightest return to form defensively could significantly impact his aWAR, and some increased plate discipline would also help him exceed his overall numbers.

Why Barnhart might underperform this projection

The veteran's offensive numbers have been declining steadily over the last few years of his career. Although he has hit around average a few times, his best season showed a .270 average, his career high by 13 points. 

Barnhart has never been a heavy hitter, and has hit barely above .200 twice in the last four years. At 32 years old and coming off a career high in strikeouts, he could provide little to no offensive improvement. 

2023 was the first minor league action Barnhart had faced since 2019, and even then, his numbers looked barely better than the majors. In just seven games, he slashed .227/.370/.273. While he did walk at a better rate in that small sample size, he still wasn't able to provide any power or even consistent contact hitting. 

His Statcast metrics were all well below average, with the exception of chase and whiff rate. Despite this, he still sported an unimpressive 24.0% strikeout percentage.

Defensively, it's possible Barnhart has lost a bit of the skill that won him a Gold Glove. As of now, his only positive defensive metric is his framing, and while that is a category in which both Moreno and Herrera struggle, it won't help his aWAR if he can't throw runners out or provide decent blocking. 

It's very possible that Barnhart continues his downward trajectory, and we see the D-backs put Herrera back in the backup role in 2024.

Summary

The veteran catcher Barnhart seems to be the easy choice to back up Moreno heading into 2024, but his offensive numbers are concerning at best. His projections expect solid improvement, but that translates to a well below average season anyway. While he could certainly find his swing, he'll have an uphill battle to be a contributor on either side of the plate for this team.