James Outman, breakout man

As a fan of dad joke-level wordplay, I was tempted to title this post “James Outman Came Outta Nowhere,” except that wasn’t really the case.  The Athletic’s Keith Law had Outman on his list (in 89th) of the 100 best prospects in baseball heading into the 2023 season, the outfielder tore up minor league pitching in 2021-22, and Outman even had a 1.409 OPS over the very small sample size of the 16 plate appearances he received with the Dodgers in 2022.  That put Outman in good stead to win a spot on Los Angeles’ Opening Day roster, and he indeed secured his place with a big Spring Training.

From there, it isn’t a stretch to call Outman one of the Dodgers’ most valuable players of 2023.  In fact, Outman and Will Smith tied for third on the club with 4.4 fWAR, as only NL MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman has more fWAR among all Dodgers position players.

The season had its share of ups and downs for Outman, as his hot start in April was followed up by a .551 OPS over 166 plate appearances in May and June.  Just when it looked like Outman might’ve just been a flash in the pan, his bat steadied once more, and he posted an .852 OPS over 292 PA over the remainder of the regular season.  It all added up to a .248/.353/.437 slash line and 23 home runs, which translated to a 118 wRC+.  Beyond the offense, Outman was also a stellar center field defender in the view of the Outs Above Average metric (+9), and the UZR/150 (+1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (+1) metrics at least had his glovework slightly above average.

This defensive performance ended up being particularly important given how center field might’ve otherwise been a big problem area for Los Angeles.  With Cody Bellinger gone to the Cubs in free agency, the Dodgers went into 2023 prepared to give Trayce Thompson a big chunk of center field time, as Thompson unexpectedly hit very well after coming to L.A. in 2022.  Thompson was slated for the majority of playing time up the middle, with a pair of left-handed bats (Outman and veteran minor league signing Jason Heyward) in position as complements for platoon purposes.

Unfortunately for Thompson, everything went downhill after a three-homer performance in his first game of the season.  Thompson struggled badly over the first two months and then missed two more months on the 60-day injured list due to an oblique strain before he was included in the trade package that brought Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox prior to the trade deadline.  Heyward was having a nice comeback year but had an increased amount of playing time in right field, as Mookie Betts was needed at second base and shortstop due to injuries in the Dodgers’ middle infield.

That left center field for Outman, who rose to the occasion.  Heyward, Chris Taylor, Jonny Deluca, and deadline pickup Enrique Hernandez chipped in for playing time, but by and large, Outman was the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder.  This looks to be the case heading into 2024 as well, even though the 26-year-old has some flaws to correct in his game.

The .343 BABIP could indicate some natural regression is in order, even if Outman has a lot of speed and can challenge for hits even on weak-ish contact.  This baserunning skill came in handy since Outman’s hard-contact numbers were nothing special — a 39.9% total that ranked in the 44th percentile of all hitters, even if his strong barrel and sweet-spot rates generated some power.  The bigger issues were a 31.9% strikeout rate that was among the worst in the league, and an overall lack of production against left-handed pitching.  Outman had just a .665 OPS over 154 PA against southpaws, compared to an .836 PA against righties.

These splits and the high strikeout totals also troubled Outman in the upper minors, and even Law’s positive scouting report praised Outman’s other tools but noted that “there’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter.”  The obvious volatility within Outman’s numbers might make him a candidate for a sophomore slump, now that opposing teams have more of a book on him and know to keep throwing him breaking balls.

On the other hand, Outman could be partially shielded simply by becoming a bit more of a platoon player.  He’d still get the bulk of at-bats as the left-handed side of a center field platoon, but having a righty-swinger to split time would help Outman avoid southpaws.  As to who that right-handed center fielder might be, Taylor, Deluca, and Andy Pages are in the mix, even if Deluca might be the only real center field option of that group from a defensive standpoint.  Hernandez is a free agent and a candidate to be re-signed.  Betts might even factor in for the occasional cameo in center field, even if the Dodgers would ideally like to see Betts mostly back in his normal right field spot, and the middle infield shored up by a healthy Gavin Lux and perhaps a new acquisition to join veteran Miguel Rojas.

The Dodgers have enough pressing offseason needs that a platoon center fielder is relatively down their list of priorities, not to mention the fact that left field is a bigger question mark in the outfield alone.  That said, Outman’s emergence provides some major relief for Los Angeles, and gives hope that despite all the middle infield issues, the Dodgers can at least get some strength up the middle with a solid center field option.