MLB best bets: Picks and predictions for Thu. 5/16

Rays vs. Red Sox

Thursday, May 16, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 (Play to -110, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

We should have a good pitching duel with right-handers Zack Littell and Cooper Criswell slated to face off. Statistically, both guys have been excellent to start the year, boasting ERA south of 3.03 and WHIPs below 1.29.

Analytically, that success is likely to continue as each ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in xERA. And while both lineups aren't terrible, they aren't great, either.

Both teams fail to crack the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. This total is only set as high as 8.5 because Tampa Bay possesses one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

That's a fair argument to make, but I'd counter by saying that it's offset by the fact that Boston boasts one of the best relief staffs in the league.

Additionally, the weather should also give us a slight boost as the forecast calls for winds blowing directly in from center field.

Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to -110)

Rays vs. Red Sox

Thursday, May 16, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 (Play to 7.5, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Zack Littell has been a tremendous addition to the Tampa Bay Rays' starting rotation. He is starting to pitch more than five innings, which is a great development for a Rays’ bullpen that has been below average this season.

Littell owns a 3.02 ERA against a 2.97 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are well above average and he doesn't give up many barrels. His walk rate is under 4% and he strikes out over 24% of hitters.

Littell will face Cooper Criswell and the Boston Red Sox today. Criswell has also been solid. He strikes out an above average number and only walks 5% of batters. His ERA is 2.10 against a 3.47 xERA. He does not pitch as deep into games, but has enough in relief to protect him

The kicker here is that Tampa Bay owns a 98 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. The Rays walk over 9% of the time, but Criswell won't issue free passes.

The Red Sox have a 105 wRC+ in the past month off of righties and their 24% strikeout rate isn't impressive.

Boston's relievers should have enough to get by Tampa Bay's hitters. Tampa Bay’s relievers have struggled, but if Littell can throw more than five innings, as he is accustomed to, he will reduce the strain on that weak bullpen.

Take the under in this game from 8.5 to 7.5. The starting pitching is better than the offense.

Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to 7.5)