MLB Wild Card Series: New format means more baseball ... and more action

When you look at both these teams on paper, they are both structured similarly. Both teams have super small payrolls — Cleveland, third-lowest; Tampa Bay, sixth-lowest — and both teams have strong pitching staffs, don't hit for much power, and like to run. But there's one glaring number that stands out, which is why I'm taking Cleveland in this series: offensive strikeouts. The Guardians struck out the least in baseball. And in a three-game series, that's huge. 

No doubt these teams pitching staffs are more than capable of striking out 12+ batters in a game, but that doesn't happen all that often to Cleveland. The pesky Guardians do a ton of the small things right — put the ball in play, take the extra base, make the routine defensive play, etc. — and that's not to say Tampa Bay doesn't, but that don't do it nearly as well as Cleveland. Plus, the Guardians have the home-field advantage. Even if Tampa Bay takes Game 1 Friday with AL Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan starting on the mound, still take Cleveland. The Guardians were 4-2 against the Rays this season, and even if they go down 1-0, they've got a strong enough starting staff to win Games 2 and 3. Cleveland has been resilient all season, were the best team in September, and rarely beat themselves.

The Bet: Cleveland over Tampa Bay

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays 

Seattle Mariners to win AL Wild Card Series vs. Toronto (+148)

Toronto Blue Jays to win AL Wild Card Series vs. Seattle (-174)

Two teams that pundits weren't super high on at the start of the season are in the postseason. How about that. Especially the Mariners. Who saw that coming? The Mariners return to the postseason for the first time since 2001, and are heavy underdogs. But they're used to that. They've been the underdog all season long, despite winning 90 games. 

Toronto made the postseason in 2020, but that was as the lowest seed during the COVID-19 60-game shortened season. Expectations for the Blue Jays were to return in 2022, and they met those expectations with a 92-win season.

But don't forget, they had the giant advantage of playing against teams at the Rogers Centre who weren't at full strength due to Canada's vaccination policy. To simply put it, if you weren't vaccinated and were playing the Blue Jays in Canada, you couldn't play. Obviously, the Royals had the hardest time with that when 10 of their players couldn't travel with the team back in July, but that's not the case anymore. Canada lifted its COVID-19 restrictions as of October 1, so vaccinated or not, the Mariners won't have any issue with that.

But remember, Seattle went 5-2 against Toronto in the regular season, and I don't think that's just a coincidence. The Blue Jays definitely have the better offense, but Seattle has the better pitching staff. For me this series is going to come down to who wins game one, and I like the Mariners bullpen more than the Blue Jays bullpen. Expect both starters — Toronto's Alek Manoah and Seattle's Luis Castillo — to pitch well and go deep, but don't expect more than seven innings from either. And that's where the game will be in the hands of the bullpen, and Seattle's is simply better. 

The Bet: Seattle over Toronto

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies to win NL Wild Card Series vs. St. Louis (+114)

St. Louis Cardinals to win NL Wild Card Series vs. Philadelphia (-134)

Out of the four Wild Card Series, this is the one I expect to be the least competitive. Despite an 11-14 record in September, the Phillies held off the Brewers for the final wild-card seed, and are in the playoffs. But don't expect a Philly miracle this October. To be honest, I'd be shocked if they even win a game in this series. St. Louis dominated the second-half of the season at 43-25, and make no mistake about it, Albert Pujols' second-half surge makes the Cardinals a lot more dangerous.

Not only does St. Louis have the NL MVP in Paul Goldschmidt, they've got a locked-in Pujols at the plate, one of the best third basemen in Nolan Arenado, and overall, a really good offensive club. Maybe not as good as the Dodgers or Braves, but pretty darn close. The Cardinals pitching isn't as good as its offense, but it's still good enough to hold off the Phillies. The ageless Adam Wainwright has plenty of postseason experience, and Miles Mikolas and Jordan Montgomery have been solid all season. Same with Jack Flaherty, despite only making nine starts in the regular season. 

Zack Wheeler will be a tough task for St. Louis, but potential Game 2 and/or Game 3 starters in Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Gibson and/or Aaron Nola for Philadelphia won't faze the Cardinals. Plus, the Phillies were just 11-14 in September, and even with Bryce Harper back, Philadelphia hasn't been overly impressive. Don't let Philly's 4-3 head-to-head record vs. the Cardinals deter you. St. Louis is the better club, and probably sweep this series. 

The Bet: St. Louis over Philadelphia

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

San Diego Padres to win NL Wild Card Series vs. New York (+164)

New York Mets to win NL Wild Card Series vs. San Diego (-194)

The Padres went all-in right before the trade deadline, and the Mets went all-in during the offseason. So unsurprisingly, out of the four Wild Card Series, this should be the one that gets the most attention. If Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't test positive for PEDs back in August and was able to play in the postseason, the line would be much more even. But that's not the case. Both teams still have a ton of superstar talent, but missing Tatis Jr. is huge for San Diego. Even if he was able to play, I'd still take the Mets. 

Why? Because no team in baseball has a better 1-2 starting punch than the Mets with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Both are future Hall of Famers, and both are healthy for the postseason. That's not a knock on San Diego's Yu Darvish or Joe Musgrove, but they're not on the same level as deGrom and Scherzer.

San Diego has been the more consistent club offensively, but the Mets can still score too. Even with the trade deadline additions of Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader, the Mets have more than enough to hold off the Padres. Expect this series to be close, but potential NL Manager of the Year Buck Showalter has plenty of postseason managing experience, and has done a really nice job in his first season with the Mets. 

Even after losing out on the division to the Braves last week, the Mets were still 43-26 in the second half and 15-11 in September. Don't let New York's 2-4 record against San Diego deter you from taking the Mets in this series. They've got the better overall club, and much more veteran experience than the Padres.

The Bet: New York Mets over San Diego