Offseason outlook for the Chicago White Sox

Getz spent seven seasons as an MLB player, mostly for the White Sox and Royals, before taking on a player development role with Kansas City.   He then spent seven seasons in charge of minor league operations and player development for the White Sox, picking up an assistant GM title along the way.

To be frank, it’s not clear what specific skills or successes made Getz qualified to be the GM of the White Sox in Reinsdorf’s eyes.  Negatives include the Omar Vizquel-Wes Helms situation, and a generally poor record of White Sox minor leaguers meeting or exceeding expectations.  Getz kicked off his tenure by committing to manager Pedro Grifol for next year, despite the club’s massively disappointing 61-101 record and several examples of clubhouse problems.  Reliever Keynan Middleton, for example, spoke of “no rules or guidelines to follow,” later backed up by Lance Lynn.

From ownership to GM to manager, there is little to inspire confidence in the quick White Sox resurgence of which Reinsdorf spoke.  However, we are mainly here to discuss how Getz might address the team’s many shortcomings in his first offseason.  Reinsdorf said, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” so we’ll take him at his word even though the Sox would need a lot to compete in 2024.  This post also takes under consideration that the White Sox have never paid the competitive balance tax, have never committed more than $75M to a player, and have never paid a player $20M per year.

Most of the team’s current catching depth was added by Hahn in a three-day span in late July, as a Kendall Graveman trade brought Korey Lee from the Astros and Edgar Quero was the key return in shipping Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels.  MLB catchers averaged a 90 wRC+ this year as hitters, and neither the defensively-minded Lee nor the bat-first Quero seems capable of that in 2024.  A veteran backstop in the Victor Caratini/Tom Murphy mold would make sense here.

Andrew Vaughn, 26 in April, was used at first base this year after being previously miscast as a corner outfielder based on the team’s needs.  But the bar for offense is higher at first base, and Vaughn’s wRC+ dropped from 113 to 103 this year.  A replacement level first baseman is hardly a win for the club, but the other holes seem more pressing so Vaughn’s job is likely secure.

In particular, the White Sox don’t have much going on in the middle infield for 2024.  They ran through Elvis Andrus, Lenyn Sosa, Zach Remillard, and Romy Gonzalez at second base this year.  The result was some of the worst production in baseball at the position.  Prospect Jose Rodriguez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, reached the majors this year and will be an option.  Adam Frazier could represent an affordable veteran free agent pickup, though for a team that seems oddly obsessed with the Royals, Whit Merrifield may be tempting to the front office.  On the trade market, Jonathan India, Gleyber Torres, or Brandon Drury could be available.

Top prospect Colson Montgomery had his season debut delayed until mid-June with oblique and back injuries but acquitted himself well at High-A and Double-A.  His likely MLB debut next year will be a bright spot for White Sox fans, and hopefully he’ll have shortstop locked up for the foreseeable future.

The White Sox hold a $14M club option with a $1M buyout on longtime shortstop Tim Anderson.  Anderson sounds willing to play some second base, and could serve as a bridge to Montgomery next year.  But given an abysmal 60 wRC+ this year, a lengthy injury history, and a complicated legacy, Anderson does not make sense at his option price.  The loyal-to-a-fault White Sox could bring him back at a lower rate, but moving on entirely might be helpful in rebooting the clubhouse.  A shortstop-capable addition such as Amed Rosario could be helpful in keeping the seat warm for Montgomery and adding middle infield depth.

With Hahn having shipped off Jake Burger to the Marlins, Yoan Moncada remains the primary option at third base for the White Sox.  Moncada, 29 in May, offered a glimmer of promise with a 125 wRC+ over the final two months, though that included striking out a third of the time.  There’s too much money owed to Moncada to trade him in anything other than a bad contract swap.  If Getz is able to find a way out of Moncada’s contract via trade, he could turn to free agency to fill the void.  If Jeimer Candelario isn’t in the team’s price range, perhaps Gio Urshela could be.  Perhaps more likely, the Sox will look to promote prospect Bryan Ramos early in the season after a solid year at Double-A.

Eloy Jimenez had one of his healthiest seasons in a years, but also slipped to a 105 wRC+ mostly out of the DH spot.  Getz hasn’t said much to indicate his offseason plans, but his mention of getting more athletic has led some to speculate that Jimenez could be on the trading block.  With DH being a relatively easy spot to fill, trading Jimenez for pitching could help with the team’s threadbare rotation.  Jimenez will turn 27 in November and has club options for 2025 and ’26, and perhaps Getz can find a club enticed by his solid Statcast marks and 2020/2022 levels of offense.

Left field is a bit like first base for the White Sox: it’s hard to be happy with Andrew Benintendi’s replacement-level work out there this year, but the team has bigger fish to fry.  Benintendi, signed through 2027, dropped to a career-worst 87 wRC+ at the plate and also alarmingly struggled defensively.  There’s not much to do here beyond putting in offseason work for a hopeful bounceback.

Center fielder Luis Robert is the best reason to watch the 2024 White Sox.  The 26-year-old managed to stay healthy this year with 145 games played, putting up 38 home runs and a 128 wRC+ with strong center field defense.  Robert’s 5-WAR potential was finally realized in 2023, and the Sox have him under control through 2027.

Right field, on the other hand, continues to befuddle the White Sox.  The team mostly turned to Oscar Colas and Gavin Sheets this year, to disastrous results.  Despite coming off a down year, a free agent like Teoscar Hernandez might require topping the largest contract in White Sox history (currently Benintendi’s $75M).  Even a bargain bin Hunter Renfroe or Chicago return for Jason Heyward would be an upgrade over what the Sox had in ’23.  Given the way Merrifield’s defensive homes match up with the club’s biggest needs at second base and right field and the team’s attraction toward Royals connections, is there any way this match doesn’t happen?

We’ve established that the White Sox have four major holes position-wise, even if we pencil in their mostly-questionable incumbents.  You might already be covering your eyes, but we have to talk about the rotation.

Dylan Cease offered up roughly similar strikeout, walk, and groundball rates as last year, but his ERA ballooned from 2.20 to 4.58.  Hot take: it’ll land between those figures next year.  The bigger question is whether Cease should be traded with two years of control remaining, which most teams would be taking a hard look at given the lack of talent on hand.  But again, Reinsdorf says he’s seeking a quick turnaround (that’s why he didn’t interview any GM candidates other than Getz), in which case the team pretty much has to keep Cease.

Michael Kopech struggled as a starter this season, moving to the bullpen for a few September outings before succumbing to knee surgery. Grifol has already statedKopech will be viewed as a starter next year.  Once Kopech recovers from surgery (a 6-8 week timeline), new hire Brian Bannister will get to work on turning his career around.  Presumably pitching coach Ethan Katz will be involved as well.

Former prospect Touki Toussaint picked up 15 starts for the White Sox this year, but he displayed the control problems so prevalent in their rotation.  Jesse Scholtens made 11 starts, most of which went poorly after a nice three-start run.  Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito were traded, while Mike Clevinger is set for free agency.

Clevinger, 33 in December, will likely seek a two-year deal after posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts.  Clevinger’s subpar strikeout and groundball rates don’t support that ERA, but it’s possible the White Sox bring him back.  The White Sox should add at least three credible starters this winter if they’re looking to contend in 2024.

Assuming the White Sox will not play at the top of the market means ruling out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Aaron Nola.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga are potentially out of their price range as well.  Aside from Clevinger, free agents such as Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen seem possible here.  The club could also take on injury or bounceback cases like Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, or Luis Severino.  Guaranteed Rate Field is not viewed as a pitcher’s park, so the Sox may have to pay extra to land any somewhat-desirable free agent.

It’s a bit early to predict the trade market, as few if any teams both hold quality starting pitching and have committed to rebuilding for 2024.  Starting pitchers were rarely traded last offseason, beyond Pablo Lopez.

Getz knows the farm system well (a key reason he was hired), so it’s safe to assume he’s got internal candidates for the 2024 rotation.  The White Sox do not have any major Double or Triple-A successes knocking on the door for next year’s rotation, however.  One sleeper could be former first rounder Garrett Crochet, who is is currently healthy after missing most of the season due to April 2022 Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder strain.

The White Sox have an interesting decision to make in the bullpen.  When Hahn devised Liam Hendriks’s odd club option for 2024 – $15M with a $15M buyout – the pitcher being out for the season was the only possible reason.  If the option is declined, that $15M is paid out in 10 annual installments from 2024-33.  Financially, that’s preferable to picking it up paying it out throughout 2024 for a guy who won’t pitch next season due to recent Tommy John surgery.  So barring a fresh contract with the White Sox, Hendriks is likely to become a free agent.  He seems likely to land a two-year deal with an eye on 2025, so both parties will have to decide whether to pursue that.

The White Sox shed most of their veteran relievers in midseason trades, and holdover Bryan Shaw is a free agent.  In terms of relievers the Sox used in high-leverage situations this year, they’re mostly left with Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos.  Bummer, who posted a 6.79 ERA, is under contract through next year.  Santos showed promise, and Crochet will be in the bullpen if he’s not used as a starter.

One of Hahn’s faults as GM was using too much of his limited budget on the bullpen, but Getz should probably add veteran relief help this winter.  Under the previous regime, the Sox went especially big on the David Robertson (2014-15 offseason) and Hendriks (2020-21) contracts.  But with so many needs to fill, it seems unlikely the team springs for a record Josh Hader deal.  The club could otherwise consider bringing Reynaldo Lopez back, or explore the remainder of the top of the market for Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, or Jordan Hicks.  Aside from those players, we don’t see too many likely deals of three-plus years.

At the least, a competent 2024 White Sox team would seem to need a catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple relievers.  They’d need Robert to stay healthy again and most of the other holdovers to improve upon 2023.  As daunting as that sounds, the White Sox could reasonably add around $75M in 2024 money without increasing their payroll.  If Getz is given that level of spending power, he’ll at least have the chance to remake the team in his image over the winter.