Phillies’ fatal flaw that will derail hot start to 2024 season

In 2023, the story with the Phillies was mostly the same, a reasonable conclusion given the roster remains largely unchanged. They set a franchise record for home runs in a single month last August and hit 220 for the season, good enough for eighth in the league. But in the postseason, the dependence on the home run really increased.

The Phillies hit 24 home runs in 13 postseason games last year, the most of any postseason team per game and second behind the eventual champion Texas Rangers’ 30 in total. They were led by Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, who all hit five. But in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS, at their own home park no less, the Phillies hit just one longball.

When this offense is rolling, it can feel absolutely invincible. Just ask the 103-win Atlanta Braves, who got steamrolled by the Phillies in four games and got cricks in their necks from watching all the balls the team was blasting out of Citizens Bank Park. But sometimes, you don’t need a home run, but a two-out base hit to drive in a run. And in Games 6 and 7, the Phillies went a combined 2-17 with runners in scoring position.

Home run dependence continues in 2024

Once again, the Phillies are among the best offenses—and top home run teams—in the new season. They’ve got 40 longballs, trailing only the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees for the MLB lead. But they’re only 12th in scoring offense, although it’s awfully early to call that a weakness.

Yet it seems whether or not the Phillies are able to cash in the home run ball plays an outsized role in whether they walk away victorious on any given day. They have 35 home runs in the 21 games they’ve won, but just five in the 11 they’ve lost. Obviously, all stats are going to look much worse in losses than wins, but that’s nearly quadruple the difference on a per-game basis.

Maybe it’s a moot point. After all, the Phillies already look like a certainty to make the playoffs and once they get there, they could easily crush a boatload of home runs all postseason instead of fizzling out near the finish line. But just mark it down as a concern.

Phillies’ other flaws that could hold them back

As I said before, I’m staking my professional reputation on this team winning it all. So while we’re here, I’d like to get all my other fears out of the way too.

The Phillies don’t have the deepest bench. And they barely ever pinch-hit, so when they inevitably need to in the postseason, they don’t have anyone ready to take on the clutch pinch-hitting role if called upon. The team is just 1-for16 in pinch hitting situations this year.

The bullpen is another obvious concern, given that it aided their demise a season ago. If they had won Game 4 in Arizona in the NLCS, they would have easily advanced to the World Series, but instead, Craig Kimbrel imploded. With Kimbrel gone, one could argue the issue is solved, or they could argue the Phillies don’t really have a closer. It remains to be seen which side is the real truth.

At the end of the day, the Phillies are a really, really good team. They’ve got a deep lineup, they’ve got perhaps the best rotation in the game and they’ve got postseason experience and incredible team chemistry. But there’s no such thing as building the perfect baseball team, and the championship just goes to whoever works around their flaws in October. The Phillies are just as likely to meet their demise again as any of the other contenders.