Phillies Re-sign Zack Wheeler, Impacting the Free Agent Market for Max Fried

The Atlanta Braves just had one of their worst-case scenarios happen as it pertains to Max Fried and his pending free agency after the 2024 season. 

Because now there will be both more demand for Fried's services across the league and a higher price to pay for it. 

Per multiple reports (first from ESPN's Buster Olney), the Philadelphia Phillies and pending free agent starter Zack Wheeler have agreed to a three-year contract extension that will pay the veteran righty $126M, an average annual value of $42M per season. 

That annual salary is the highest in Phillies history and fourth highest for any player in MLB, behind the $43.3M AAV of pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and the $70M AAV of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. 

The deal for the 33-year-old Wheeler kicks in after the 2024 season, keeping him in Philadelphia through 2027 and is, according to Olney, expected to be the final contract of his career. 

Since signing with Philadelphia before the 2020 season, Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, making 101 starts with 43 wins and an ERA barely over 3. 

The ramifications for Atlanta are several and far-reaching: 

Max Fried's free-agent price just went up

The lefty Fried, who is entering the final year of team control prior to free agency, has several similarities to Wheeler, most notably a career 3.03 ERA that beats Wheeler's Phillies markof 3.06. 

But owing to Wheeler's durability - he's made over 30 starts twice in three full-length years (so excluding 2020), including leading all of MLB in innings in 2021 with 213.1, Wheeler was seen at the top of a deep free-agent class of starting pitchers this offseason. 

Now with Wheeler coming off the market, demand for those remaining starters is expected to increase. As of now, Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes figures to be the top available arm, with Fried slotting in as the second-best option ahead of Cleveland Guardians righty Shane Bieber.

And with the rise of spending on pitching - four of the five highest AAVs in baseball at the moment are pitchers, as well as seven of the top twelve - both removing one option from the market and it happening at an extremely high price will only serve to increase the potential contract Fried could receive. 

Remember, free agency is all about leverage. And with one more top-end option off the board, Fried just got more leverage over his potential suitors. 

In their projections this morning, published before the news of the Wheeler extension, The Athletic's Tim Britton has Fried receiving $195M over seven years, good for an AAV of $27.9M.   

Philadelphia shouldn't see a dropoff for a while

The Phillies, who have a veteran-laden roster that's made deep playoff runs in the last two seasons, don't stand to suffer any sort of significant dropoff for a while. 

Their position player roster, anchored by two-time MVP Bryce Harper, are all in the upper-20s or early-30s and shouldn't begin suffering age-related declines for at least a few more seasons. 

And Philadelphia has shown a willingness to spend in recent years on pitching, both paying to retain Aaron Nola last offseason ($24.5M, less than Atlanta's reported $27M AAV offer) and now to retain Wheeler. They also paid $18M AAV on Taijuan Walker and have four different relievers each making over $5M annually. 

But Philly's still not perfect

If there is one area where Philadelphia's spending has impacted the club, it's in what those large-dollar free-agent investments have done to the club's depth. Philadelphia was forced to give guaranteed major league contracts to Kolby Allard and Spencer Turnbull, players who profile as typically receiving minor league deals or as having similar contributions come from minor leaguers. 

As the core continues to age, there's a question about both the club's financial ability to replace them and what a diminished farm system, ranked in the bottom half of baseball by FanGraphs, can do to supplement the big league roster. 

Additionally, both the Nola and Wheeler deals show an issue that the New York Mets dealt with last season - increasing spending solely to retain their players, ones that have a strong likelihood of age-related decline during the duration of their deal. 

New York paid a hefty sum to re-sign Brandon Nimmo ($20.25M AAV) last offseason, one year after paying to retain an aging Starling Marte ($19.5M) and Jeff McNeil ($12.5M). The trio of position players, hampered by injuries and poor performance, missed a combined 64 games and hit a combined 39 homers (with 24 coming from Nimmo). 

Does Atlanta strike now to retain Fried? 

Spring training is extension season, after all. Both Fried and Alex Anthopoulos, Braves president of baseball operations and general manager, have not given away much about the discussions to this point. 

But the time to retain Fried is now, not after the season in free agency. If Atlanta decides to make the commitment and the two parties can agree to a financial number that makes sense for both, a contract extension could happen. 

I wouldn't hold your breath, though.