The best fits for a Juan Soto trade

There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33M salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440M offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.

It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.

What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?

Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

Best Fits

• Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24M shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
• Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50M below the tax threshold. They’re within $7M of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25M south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
• Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator that they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4M below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25M away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
• Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18M south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
• Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52M shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
• Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40M south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.

Longer Shots

• Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
• Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
• Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
• Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7M projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
• Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).

Payroll Questions

• Astros
• Brewers
• Guardians
• Marlins
• Pirates
• Rays
• Twins

While a $33M salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and is already right around its reported target area.

Other Priorities

• Cardinals
• Reds
• Tigers

Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that makes them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.

The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.

Wrong Competitive Timeline

• A’s
• Nationals
• Royals
• White Sox

The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.