The Matt Chapman Trade After One Season

While the book is closed on the 2022 season, he appears to have made some adjustments at the plate in Toronto, and with one season until he reaches free agency, we may finally see him put everything together. 

The one surprising factor for Chapman, however, was that his defense seemed to suffer this past season, collecting just two Defensive Runs Saved on FanGraphs. That is the same total he put up over 37 games during the shortened 2020 season before missing the rest of the season with a hip injury, and the only other time he's been in single digits by this metric. 

Savant's Outs Above Average (OAA) tell the same story, however, with him accumulating just one OAA in 2022, the same as his 2020 total. Something is either still bothering him physically (but there have been no reports of him needing surgery after the season), or the turf in Toronto could take some getting used to, because there is no way that the Matt Chapman that A's fans had become accustomed to is just putting in an average defensive season without a legitimate reason. 

So with all of that in mind, how did the A's do with their return package? 

Let's start off with Kevin Smith, who ended up being the A's Opening Day third baseman in place of Chapman. 

To call Smith's year "a tale a two seasons" would be an overstatement, because it really wasn't until the final month that he got going offensively--and that was in Triple-A Las Vegas. 

Smith batted .164 with a .212 OBP with the A's until the middle of June when he was optioned down to Vegas. Entering September he was still only batting .224 with a .298 on-base in the minors, so the demotion wasn't serving as the wake-up call that the A's had hoped it would. 

Then in the final month of the minor league season, Smith hit .365 with a .405 OBP, 11 home runs, and an 1.184 OPS. That final month, coupled with the stellar defense that he played while in the big leagues (5 DRS, 3 OAA in 47 games) could have him getting a shot at the A's third base job again when Spring Training rolls around. 

Kirby Snead had a poor season with the A's, but I wrote about him being a potential breakout candidate in 2023 due to the movement on his pitches, among other reasons. He finished the season with a 7.05 ERA across 44 2/3 innings, but for him, the game is all about getting swings and misses with how much his stuff moves. He wasn't getting ahead in the count terribly often, so nailing down that first pitch strike could go a long way for him to get those whiffs as he continues to develop.

Zach Logue, 26, got into 14 games in Oakland and started ten of them, finishing the season with a 6.79 ERA over 57 innings. Home runs were a big issue for Logue, giving up 13 in the big leagues, and another 25 in 78 2/3 innings with Vegas. Certainly not the season that Logue or the A's were hoping for. 

Coming into the season, he was one of the guys in the mix for a rotation spot, but it feels as though Adam Oller and Adrián Martínez have pulled ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Finally, the headliner of the Chapman trade, 22-year-old Gunnar Hoglund. When the A's acquired him, he was still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and it wasn't until August 6 that he made his A's affiliate debut with the Stockton Ports, going three innings, allowing three hits, one unearned run, one walk, while striking out one. The run he allowed came on a balk in the first inning. This was also Hoglund's only appearance with an A's affiliate outside of Rookie Ball this season.

While the return in this deal currently doesn't look great for someone that A's fans hold in such high regard, there are a lot of question marks that could turn into exclamation points in this deal, too. 

We haven't seen much from Hoglund, and it'll probably be a couple of years before he's knocking on the door to the big leagues, but MLB Pipeline still has him rated as the A's #8 prospect, even with limited reps in pro ball while coming off of Tommy John. 

If Kevin Smith figured something out in that final month, then we could see a new side of him in 2023 and beyond. Kirby Snead could be another solid lefty out of the bullpen. If Zach Logue figures out the home run issue, then he has a chance to become a contributor as well. 

It's too early to say whether the A's have won or lost this trade, but there is some hope that it won't be as lopsided as the Donaldson deal at the very least.