The
Ultimate Fighting Championship is holding
nothing back for its tentpole event to cap off International Fight
Week on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. A dozen important
and relevant matchups fill out its all-killer-no-filler” lineup,
and the betting spread provides a veritable buffet of wallet
padders. The
UFC 276 edition of Prime Picks wheels out a reasonable option
in a hypercompetitive title fight, a pick-’em that should not be
close to a pick-’em, an old lion who still has plenty of bite left
and a potential rude awakening for an unbeaten Irishman.
Down 0-2 against the reigning champ in his weight class, Holloway
finds himself between a rock and a hard place. While the option
always exists for “Blessed” to bless himself with 10 more pounds in
a shift to the lightweight division, if
Alexander
Volkanovski wins their co-main event, the Aussie could move up
there to face additional challengers there, as well. Volkanovski
has made his intentions known of seeking a second belt at 155
pounds, and the worst nightmare for Holloway would be for him to
lose to the champion, move up and find Volkanovski holding that
throne, too. With both of their fights close— the second saw
a majority of scorers side with Holloway—the Hawaiian should
not lose faith that a third try will not go his way. The betting
line should be much closer, and as a result, Holloway as the
significant underdog is quite tantalizing.
Both fighters have improved since their last meeting nearly two
years ago, with a pair of wins under the belt of each featherweight
great. While Volkanovski has staved off hungry challengers in
Brian
Ortega and
Chan Sung
Jung—he ran roughshod on the latter in a way few others could
imagine—Holloway displayed two radically different skill sets in
his performances. The boxing clinic put on Calvin Katter was one
that reshaped several record books, and his victory over
Yair
Rodriguez was surprising for a different reason. Leading into
the match with “El Pantera,” Holloway had landed five takedowns
across 24 appearances. Against Rodriguez, he grounded the
high-flying Mexican striker three times. This new wrinkle in
Holloway’s game could give Volkanovski a new angle to think
about.
The success of “Alexander The Great” has been nothing short of
remarkable, with his 11-0 record inside the Octagon allowing him to
come out most matches unscathed. Ortega placed him in submission
danger twice, but his calm demeanor allowed him to not fall victim
to anything. The only fighter who has been able to match his volume
and pace has been Holloway, who still fell short on the significant
strike tallies in both meetings. His use of leg kicks to take a bit
of the sting out of Holloway’s hands is paramount to his success,
and even one check from the challenger could make a big difference.
Even if Holloway wins, the promotion will find itself in a bit of a
pickle, as the future challenger will hold two memorable wins over
the champion, and a fourth—or even fifth, depending on the
result—meeting could be on the table. For this matchup
specifically, Holloway at high plus money is more valuable than the
odds-on favorite. At the very least, he is a better play than
either of the two men in the main event ahead of them. If one wants
to be safe, the line that the fight lasts longer than 3.5 rounds at
-275 or prop bet of the clash going the distance at -225 are both
decent, even if they may be juicier as part of a parlay.
For all of his bluster, banter, awkward political asides and
comments, Strickland is unquestionably an intelligent fighter. His
approach to fights rarely varies even if microphones find
themselves before him, and his in-cage performances reflect this,
as well. Some maligned Strickland for “playing it safe” in his
matches with
Uriah Hall
and
Jack
Hermansson, but the undiscussed upside was that even though he
absorbed plenty of strikes, he took little noticeable damage.
Somehow, the technical boxer has been able to stand in arm’s reach
of an opponent while constantly putting his hands in their face
without fear of reprisal. It may sound like a bold strategy against
a powerful kickboxer, but he has already passed that test in this
division. With other tools at his disposal that
Alex
Pereira does not likely celebrate, Strickland should be more
heavily favored than he is currently.
“Poatan” will be the taller man with the longer reach, and that is
something he should capitalize on and use to his benefit. Keeping
to his own range and not the one Strickland will impose on him will
be essential to Pereira getting his hand raised. If allowed to
unleash his blistering body kicks and lash out with some to the
head, Pereira has a solid chance at victory. He will have to do so
against an opponent who can push a five-round pace behind
frustrating pressure and a stifling jab that few others in the
division maintain. Strickland does also have a fallback option
should he get cracked—his ability to take the fight down if need
be. An underrated asset in his toolkit, Strickland can make the
Brazilian concerned about the takedown to set other strikes up and
otherwise fluster the powerful kickboxer. It would not be
surprising for smart money to come in this week tipping the
outspoken middleweight in favored territory, so get him at
practically even money while the opportunity exists. If one wants
to take a risk on a very reasonable result, look no further than
the stellar prop of Strickland by submission at +900.
The fire truly appeared back in September 2021, when Lawler snapped
a lengthy losing streak at the expense of old rival
Nick Diaz. The
two, up a division at middleweight, traded hands in furious fashion
for almost 11 hard minutes until Diaz had reached his limit.
Lawler, 39 years old at the time, appeared to have his mojo back,
with a chin that could still take punishment and the fists that
were willing to dish it back out. Depending on one’s perspective,
the UFC may or may not be doing a disservice to Lawler by matching
him with fellow brawler
Bryan
Barberena. On the one hand, Lawler will almost certainly absorb
more blows and take damage. On the other, “Bam Bam” is the ideal
opponent to match him with at this stage in his legendary career—a
tireless yet defensively flawed striker who would be happy to stand
and bang.
Barberena should also be thanking his lucky stars for drawing an
opponent like Lawler while on a two-fight winning streak in his
division. In his last four bouts, Barberena’s foes have grounded
him a
combined 22
times, and he has not reciprocated even once. Lawler will have
none of that, securing exactly
one single
takedown in his last 10 outings, and that one was memorable:
the fireman carry slam of
Ben Askren.
This should be almost exclusively contested on the feet unless one
man gets dropped, and of the two, Barberena has had his legs give
way more often than Lawler of late. Even with more miles for a
career that began over eight years before his adversary, this
version of Lawler should still have enough to get past Barberena.
If they play their cards right and their beards hold together, they
could also stare down potential $50,000 bonus checks for what
should be a wild one.
The shine of an unblemished record can blind some bettors, who
simply bet on the zero to stick around no matter the opponent. On
extreme rare occasions—in cases like
Philip
Miller and
Khabib
Nurmagomedov—that may pay out until the bitter end. For the
lion’s share of other fighters to ever set foot in a ring or cage,
a loss is inevitable and can even make that competitor better in
the long run. In this occasion, the 9-0
Ian Garry
celebrates a lavish record with two-thirds of his wins coming by
stoppage, but this step up in competition might be too much to
surpass. The value is substantial in an underdog Green, whose
overwhelming volume may be too much for the youngster from Ireland
to handle.
Green’s lone loss in the Octagon came in his promotional debut to
future contender
Daniel
“D-Rod” Rodriguez and he put together a great accounting for
himself even though he slowed as Rodriguez got the better of him.
Two subsequent outings in big performances over
Philip Rowe
and
Yohan
Lainesse cemented Green as a striker to watch, as he has proven
to not be afraid to absorb one to land two. On the other side,
before he himself got sniped with a right hand,
Jordan
Williams had Garry on the ropes. A more polished practitioner
like Green can unquestionably achieve what Williams could not by
pressuring the Irishman and forcing him into bad situations where
he has to sacrifice offense for getting himself off the cage or
staving off takedowns. Green is well-rounded enough to threaten in
every stage of the fight, and at plus money, a “Gifted” pick might
seem like a gift to some savvy bettors.