Insider says James Harden to Houston is a 'real possibility'

On The Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN's Tim McMahon suggested that the 76ers guard could leave for the Rockets this summer after he likely declines his player option. Houston dealt Harden to Brooklyn in January 2021, then Harden forced a trade to the Sixers the following season. Now, rumors are flying that Harden wants to be a Rocket once again.

McMahon explained that even after being traded, Harden continues to live in Houston during the offseason, where he even works out at the Rockets' facility. And when reporters asked Harden about the possibility of returning to Houston, he didn't technically deny it.

"I'm here," he told reporters in December. "We're playing very well and I don't know where that report came from, but I'm excited to be here."

"I'm here" is very different from "I want to be here" or "I'm planning to be here." While he hasn't shown the obvious unhappiness he felt in Brooklyn, he also has no contractual commitment to Philly after June.

Harden took less than his maximum possible salary to re-sign with Philadelphia last summer. He declined a player option worth $47.4 M and signed a two-year deal with a player option instead, for only $33 million in 2023. That discount allowed Philadelphia to add Harden's old teammates P.J. Tucker and Danuel House.

The Sixers are playing well, but on the same podcast, ESPN's Tim Bontemps predicted that if Philadelphia were to lose in the first two rounds, "A lot could happen."

"There's immense pressure on the Sixers," Bontemps said. "At the end of the day, if they lose in the second round for the fifth time in six years, this thing could go sideways really fast."

Why would Houston want Harden? First, they'll have over $60 million in cap room this summer and a team with just one player over the age of 22 under contract through next year, 27-year-old Jae'Sean Tate. While Harden plays the same position as 2021's No. 2 pick, Jalen Green, and there's certainly room for them to coexist.

It's also Houston's last year to tank. They have a 14 percent chance at the top pick this year, presumably French big man Victor Wembanyama, and a 52 percent chance at a top-four pick. But starting next year, the Oklahoma City Thunder can swap first-round picks or get Houston's pick outright through 2026. That's due to the Russell Westbrook-Chris Paul trade.

Houston still has many first-round picks coming from Brooklyn in the original Harden deal, but they won't control their own pick again until 2027. So after three years of tanking, they suddenly have no more incentive to lose. And if they want to build around Harden, they'll have plenty of young players and picks to trade to do so.

It seems absurd that Harden would want to swap from a title contender to a lowly Rockets team, but if he's never relocated from Houston, it makes it much easier to go back.