NBA Playoffs best bets: 3 expert picks for 4/28

Knicks vs. 76ers

Sunday, April 28, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 19.5 PRA (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Maybe I'm off, but with Mitchell Robinson likely out — and even on the off chance he plays — we're expecting at least a partial minutes uptick from Isaiah Hartenstein, right?

OK — 19.5 PRA surprised me a bit. I know he's only gone over once this series, but let's look at the context.

In Game 1, Robinson straight up outplayed him. In Game 2, Hartenstein went over and played 30 minutes. In Game 3, he finished with 19 PRA despite foul trouble (five fouls but logged 26 minutes).

Robinson is hurt, so the expectation is that Hartenstein gets 30 or more minutes barring foul trouble. I like the opportunity to get his over here because of the likely increased workload, along with the fact that he's draining his floaters at will against Joel Embiid's heavy drop, and is still active on the boards and as a passer from the top of the key.

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 19.5 PRA

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Sunday, April 28, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Under 209.5 (FanDuel)

By Michael Fiddle

It is pretty crazy how far the total has dropped this series. The Game 1 opening price was 227, and there has been consistent sharp action on the Under. Game 1 closed at 221, Game 2 closed at 216, Game 3 closed at 213 and now Game 4 is at 209.5 and should finish around 208.

I still believe this is playable and not priced out.

The pace on these teams is very slow, and both teams have been playing really solid defense. On offense, the Mavericks and Clippers are relying on a lot of isolation basketball, which takes time to develop and is less efficient.

These teams have gone under every game, and I think we have one more under coming Sunday.

Pick: Under 209.5

Suns vs. Timberwolves

Sunday, April 28, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Timberwolves -5.5 & -19.5 (FanDuel)

By Maltman

I was wrong about the Suns-Timberwolves. This is just a matchup of being completely out=coached, unprepared, probably not healthy and not playing as hard. It was always going to come for the Suns, and I thought so before the season, but I just ignored it because of the matchup.

Now we are at Game 4, and the Wolves have won three straight, each by 10-plus points. Since the NBA expanded to a seven-game first round, nine other teams have won their first three games of a series by 10-plus points. Seven teams finished off the sweep in Game 4, and each of them won Game 4 by at least six points. The two teams that lost were coming off trips to the Finals the previous year, and were overconfident that the series was over and didn't care about coming home (2012 Miami and 2018 Warriors).

This Minnesota team isn't that. They want to win, they have all the advantages and are going to come out hungry. We all know this series is over.

Additionally, three of those teams won the clinching game by 20-plus points. In case you've forgotten, the last two series losses for the Suns have been demoralizing defeats of 25 and 33 points. At long odds, I'm willing to take the sprinkle on Minnesota blowing out Phoenix.

I'll be betting .4u on Wolves -5.5 at +158 on FanDuel (down to +145) and .1u on Wolves -19.5 at +1000 on FanDuel (down to +900).

Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 & -19.5