Ranking the five-year windows of every NBA franchise

Say, for the sake of argument, that LeBron James decides to embark on a second homecoming in the summer of 2021 in an attempt to save the Cleveland Cavaliers once more. He turns 37 years old in December of that year. Even the King can’t escape Father Time.  Early returns on the backcourt duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland aren’t  promising. Odds are Cleveland will have more coaches than championships over the five-year window. 

The nicest thing one can say about the Washington Wizards in December 2019 is that rookie forward Rui Hachimura could be something to build around over the next decade. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton  wrote, the Wizards can’t trade Bradley Beal until 2020, and nobody knows what John Wall will or won’t be once he returns from a ruptured Achilles. Fans looking for a light at the end of the tunnel can hold on to the hope the Wizards have tradable assets that could help the club form a competitive roster by 2022. 

The Charlotte Hornets lost Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb for nothing instead of trading either or both, and the front office responded to those departures by handing guard Terry Rozier arguably the  worst contract given to a player during the 2019 offseason. 2018 second-round selection Devonte' Graham  was a nice story over the first two months of the campaign, during which the guard led the Hornets in scoring. We’re not sure a general manager out there would risk his job on entrusting his team’s future to Graham, Miles Bridges and Malik Monk. 

As of the typing of this sentence, Gar Forman and John Paxson are still running the Chicago Bulls circus. The  GarPax duo  has given zero indication it can assemble even a .500 roster over a five-year window. Maybe an upgrade from head coach Jim Boylen would help further develop Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, and Coby White, but  probably not. Chicago trading Kris Dunn had better be inevitable. Should the Bulls also shop Markkanen? 

Ask us to rerank the Detroit Pistons once the club moves on from Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Until then, Detroit is in the worst kind of basketball purgatory, as it’s a team on the verge of having money to spend but also one with no track record of attracting first-class talent. During the second half of the 2010s, franchises such as the Cavs and Hornets understood why tanking was the right move. Detroit needs to follow in their footsteps. 

How weird is it to see the San Antonio Spurs so low? Legendary head coach Gregg Popovich is  hinting at retirement . Both LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan mean more to the Spurs as trade assets than winning players. San Antonio isn’t a market that attracts current or future MVPs outside of the draft. Dark days are coming for what was one of North American professional sports’ most stable franchises over the first 19 years of the 2000s.

The Orlando Magic are the NBA franchise version of a shrugging emoji. Forward Aaron Gordon remains an incredible athlete who can jump out of buildings but who also isn’t taking a career leap and who probably  needs a new home. Expectations are so low for Markelle Fultz  that analysts are gushing over him averaging 12 PPG. Those who don’t live in the Orlando area may have forgotten Mo Bamba is still in the Association. Trading to put an All-Star (*cough* Kevin Love *cough*) alongside Nikola Vucevic (when Vucevic is healthy) would open Orlando’s five-year window beyond a crack. 

A gamer playing a version of "2K" would love to start a franchise mode using the New Orleans Pelicans. Far more questions hover over the franchise in real life as of December 2019. As ESPN’s Andrew Lopez  explained, the Pelicans are already planning to manage rookie Zion Williamson’s workload once he makes his official debut. Until Williamson becomes a full-time starter, fears he could flame out as a pro match his upside and All-Star potential. 

Second-year big man Deandre Ayton earning a  25-game suspension  in the infancy of the 2019-20 season was but the latest black cloud to cast a shadow over the Phoenix Suns. Devin Booker is a high-volume scorer, but the absence of a secondary All-Star means he can carry the Suns to only a 41-41 record at best. Even if the Suns pull off a transaction before the trade deadline, that won’t prevent the team from a quick postseason exit. Phoenix still can’t escape its losing culture. 

A wide gap separates the idea of liking the partnership of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. and loving it. Morant is the runaway leader for Rookie of the Year honors heading into 2020, and Memphis can soon  dump expiring contracts one way or another. The second half of the team’s five-year window is more promising than the first. 

Eventually, some superstar is going to want to play in the Big Apple and save the New York Knicks, right? That coupled with the fact the franchise theoretically can spend boatloads of cash by 2021 is all we’ve got for Knicks fans this holiday season. One can’t help but wonder if RJ Barrett is already planning his escape from New York. 

When you have to sign Carmelo Anthony in the fall to bolster your offensive output, your five-year window isn’t all that promising. Rodney Hood  suffering  a ruptured Achilles in December was the latest blow to hit a Portland Trail Blazers side that can’t seem to locate any good fortune with winter looming. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are closer to 30 years old than to 25, and no evidence suggests Portland’s backcourt can lead the team past a No. 1 seed in a postseason series.  Sam Quinn of CBS Sports suggests Portland needs a full reset.

The Sacramento Kings weren’t built to advance deep into the playoffs for the 2019-20 season before both De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III missed action due to  injuries. We remain optimistically high on Sacramento’s future even if fans of the team have been hurt before and have also seen this movie in the past. Will paying both Fox and Buddy Hield, moves the Kings have to begin considering, actually prevent them from becoming a top-four side in the Western Conference if doing so keeps them from signing a proven commodity during the early 2020s? 

The John Collins  suspension was a bummer, no doubt, but the Atlanta Hawks nevertheless can be in a spot to chase an NBA Finals berth by the end of a five-year window that begins on Jan. 1, 2020. Trae Young is an All-Star, averaging over 28 PPG his sophomore season. As Brad Rowland of Peachtree Hoops wrote, the Hawks will have some tasty future draft picks. Money won’t be an issue for Atlanta down the road. Patience is a virtue for the Hawks this Christmas. 

Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  has been as good, if not better, than the Oklahoma City Thunder could’ve hoped for since the team acquired him during the necessary roster restructuring that came as part of the franchise trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook. OKC currently holds the rights to over a dozen first-round draft picks, per  Rodger Sherman of The Ringer, and that gives the Thunder all kinds of leverage ahead of every trade deadline over the next few years. This could be a top-10 side by 2022. 

We’re tempted to put the Minnesota Timberwolves higher in five-year window power rankings since Andrew Wiggins  is in the middle of a Most Improved Player season. Then we remembered it’s only December, and Wiggins still has a lot to prove. Karl-Anthony Towns deserves to be in  MVP conversations as of Christmastime even if he won’t win the award next spring. If Wiggins’ turnaround is the real deal and not just the latest tease of his career, he and KAT give Minnesota an imposing one-two punch that could allure a third championship-level talent to the city. 

All of the questions anybody had about the Indiana Pacers on Oct. 1 exist two months later. Indiana playing Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis alongside each other has gone  about as expected . The Pacers can only hope Victor Oladipo will be as good as before whenever he returns from a  ruptured quad. Winning a trade that involves Turner would help the Pacers be more than a playoff team that loses to a top seed. 

The Utah Jazz were a roller coaster ride of wins and losses over the first two months of the season, but that doesn’t change the fact the team is ready to win big right now. Basketball, like life, is harsh, and the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic will have to get past the loaded Lakers or Clippers in the spring of 2020 to reach the Association’s summit. Mitchell’s continued development will determine where the Jazz sit in power rankings at the end of this five-year window.

Guard Kendrick Nunn , who went undrafted in 2018, playing at a Rookie of the Year level for the Miami Heat this fall is one of the best NBA stories of the opening quarter of the campaign. The Heat can and will add a max player to join Jimmy Butler in  2021, and All-Stars love taking their talents to South Beach and calling Miami home during the winter months. We considered ranking the Heat higher, but then we remembered Butler could grow tired of his surroundings at the flip of a switch.  

The Philadelphia 76ers are a fun team to watch during the regular season but also one that could cause fans to pull their hair out in May. Joel Embiid’s long-term health, or lack thereof, is concerning. Embiid and others  within the organization have essentially admitted Ben Simmons needs to add a jumper to his arsenal if this Sixers roster is going to win more than handfuls of non-playoff games. Philadelphia  trading Simmons could become a viable option as soon as 2020. 

We don’t think the Toronto Raptors will repeat as NBA champions, but Toronto has pieces in place to return to the Finals at least once over the next few years. Nick Nurse is an early Coach of the Year candidate this fall. Pascal Siakam is no one-year wonder. Toronto is already planning to go big-game hunting in  July 2021 . The front office and coaching staff has proved it will accommodate a star such as Kawhi Leonard by managing his workload. Could this be a hot NBA destination next decade?

The only reason the Dallas Mavericks aren’t already in the top five is that Kristaps Porzingis is still finding his legs and form in his new offense. Luka Doncic went from being the greatest 19-year-old in NBA history to playing  better than any 20-year-old ever has in the Association. A logical person wants to say Doncic will eventually come back to earth, won’t average a triple-double his second season and won’t be the LeBron James of the 2020s. How much more does Doncic need to accomplish before we crown him as the league’s next King?

The Houston Rockets didn’t bring Russell Westbrook to town so James Harden could win another scoring title while averaging over 38 PPG. As  Andy Bailey of Bleacher Report wrote, the jury remains out on whether Westbrook makes Houston a better postseason team. Westbrook’s shooting woes have worsened in his 30s, and his inefficiency could cause this experiment to explode in the front office’s face right as Harden’s prime begins to dwindle. 

Who could have guessed the Boston Celtics would be better off without Kyrie Irving? Oh, right.  Everybody associated with the Celtics. Kemba Walker is the scorer and star Boston needed but without any headaches that came with you-know-who, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown  have taken career leaps under coach Brad Stevens. Boston began December in an interesting position, as it could either pursue a trade to try to win it all next June or play the long game and hope to sell a free agent on featuring for the storied franchise (and nine figures).

Remember that this is about a five-year window and not just the spring of 2020. Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t dedicated any time past the 2020-21 season to the Bucks, and every month he doesn’t do so gets him a little closer to  free agency. What if the Bucks come up short in the playoffs once again and the Greek Freak responds by informing Milwaukee he has no intentions of signing with the club? That would drastically change the team's window and alter the league.

The Denver Nuggets could rise a spot or two in five-year window power rankings if Michael Porter Jr. reaches his precollege ceiling and manages to stay healthy as an every-night player. Per  Mike Singer of the Denver Post , teammate Will Barton believes the 21-year-old was “just scratching the surface” after his first 12 pro appearances. Nikola Jokic suffering a slump in the fall may scare some, but the Nuggets have the lineup and depth to hang with any Western Conference team in a postseason series. Denver and Paul Millsap parting ways in 2020 will help the club’s financials for the  short-term future. 

Don’t mourn the death of the Golden State Warriors dynasty just yet. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will eventually return to the lineup healthy and motivated, and D'Angelo Russell still has plenty of trade value attached to his status. Don’t forget that the Warriors likely also believe they could make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021.

Throughout this five-year window, the Brooklyn Nets will (eventually) have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the same lineup. Even without another star, they can take any team to a title. Kyrie and K.D. are, well, unique personalities who may ruffle a few feathers and get on the nerves of some inside of the locker room. Winning cures all, though, and we expect these two to win a lot starting in October 2020.

As of the middle of December, Anthony Davis  has not yet agreed to remain with the Los Angeles Lakers past June 2020. We’re not saying he will or won’t, but nobody should pretend LeBron James has always been a peach of a teammate and locker-room leader. Ask certain individuals who played for the Cleveland Cavaliers from the fall of 2014 through the spring of 2018 about that. Relationships go through peaks and valleys, and millionaire athletes often change their minds suddenly and without much notice.

As of the posting of this piece, no team is more on-paper ready for a seven-game playoff series than the Los Angeles Clippers. Either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George could earn Finals MVP honors, and those two combined with Patrick Beverley could make for the top defensive unit in the postseason. Once again, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are battling for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. Even if the Clips truly only have a three-year window, that’s enough for them to sit atop the list at the end of 2019.