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Some early NBA trends to watch
Nov 5, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks in the first quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports USA TODAY Sports

Some early NBA trends to watch

The NBA has been back in our lives for over two weeks and this year is already more lit than even the most optimistic observers could have guessed. Fears of a joyless march to Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers III have proven greatly exaggerated. Instead, this season is already shaping up to be the most fun in recent memory. Let's check in on a few storylines.

The Wild MVP Race

As of right now, no one in Basketball-Reference's NBA MVP Award Tracker would have better than 50% odds of winning the award if voting were held today. That may seem obvious -- it's not even 10 games into the season -- but it's a stark contrast from last year's race. Although Wayback Machine doesn't have the page saved in November, the earliest version of last year's MVP odds, from December 1, have Stephen Curry over 90%.

That's probably not happening this year. The frontrunner is James Harden, who is averaging 30 points and 13 assists per game, mind-boggling numbers made possible by the whiz-bang offensive machine built by Mike D'Antoni.

If Harden can keep up the blistering pace, the award is probably his, but despite their record, the Houston Rockets are 7th in the West in Simple Rating System, behind the Los Angeles Lakers, and no one's ever averaged 30 and 13 in a full season. If he slips, the two best candidates are Chris Paul, who's numbers are a little under some of the contenders right now but is the best player for what looks to be the best regular season team so far, and LeBron James. LeBron's case is especially interesting to me. His scoring has taken a slight dip (he's averaging 22.9 PPG, which is his lowest mark since his rookie season), but he's contributing more in almost every facet of the game. He's closer than Russell Westbrook to averaging a triple-double at the moment (8.8 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game), and he's sporting an assist rate of 46.5%, something Magic Johnson only did three times.

Further down the ballot, there's Westbrook, who I think the model is underrating since it can't account for narrative factors like what happened to the Oklahoma City Thunder this offseason, as well as DeMar DeRozan. The model has DeRozan with just a 2.3% chance of winning the MVP award, which is crazy, but it's not impressed with his non-scoring contributions. Still, I imagine a lot of voters would be tempted by someone averaging 34.1 PPG and taking 24 field goal attempts per game.

Lastly, I want to give a little credit to someone who can't even crack the Top 10. Anthony Davis is absolutely putting numbers on the board at an MVP level. Unfortunately, the team around him is so bad that it doesn't seem to matter. Sorry, AD. You deserve a better pick and roll partner in the year 2016 than E'Twaun Moore.

Are the Warriors Coming Out to Play?

Yes, that pun is terrible and no, I won't apologize. There's never been as much consternation over a 7-2 team as there is over this one. Despite their record, the Warriors have dropped a couple surprises losses, including an opening night dismantling by the San Antonio Spurs, and they've also been in a lot more close games than expected.

These kind of early season kinks are to be expected for a team that made as many big changes as this one, but there are questions to be answered before the playoffs. Just watching them, my guess would have been with the playmaking, since the Warriors don't quite resemble the beautiful, zig-zag passing system of 2015-16. But, while Curry and Draymond Green's assist totals have dropped to the point that no one is averaging over seven per game, their team assists are actually slightly up from last season.

Instead, the problem is pretty much what everyone guessed it would be: their size, and the stats that correlate with that. Their rebounding is down 8.6%, their blocks are down 8.5% and their fouls are down 8.4%, the latter indicating, to me, softer rim protection, since opponents are scoring 2.6% more points per game.

The bigs this year just aren't cutting it. The team is 11.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Zaza Pachulia is on the floor and 29.8 worse with JaVale McGee. Interestingly, they're better with David West, but he's only played 90 minutes. More West is worth exploring, although I suspect Steve Kerr is trying to keep him fresh and rested for the playoffs.

Lastly, I'm not ready to push the panic button on Klay Thompson, but it's worth keeping an eye on. The team is only 3.8 points per 100 better with him on the floor, the worst mark of any death lineup player, and he's shooting 28% from three-point range. In order to keep Curry and Green together (their synergy was really the engine that powered last year's Warriors), Kerr has been playing a lot of lineups with Thompson, Kevin Durant, and bench players: the jury's still out on whether that's a good idea. Lineups featuring Durant and Klay are at +10.6, a full point worse than ones that feature Klay and Draymond or Klay and Curry. The lineup of Durant/Klay/Ian Clark/Andre Iguodala/David West, for example, was -27.1.

However, Kerr has found one that's working, with Livingston instead of Clark. Still, as Kerr experiments with the rotation, it might be worth experimenting with going to a a throwback unit of Klay, Steph, and Draymond, and then bringing in Durant when they rest to run an alternative version of last year's Thunder.

Big Surprises in the East

As for writing, the Cleveland Cavaliers are not in the first place in the East; the Charlotte Hornets are, on point differential. This may be surprising if you still think of the Hornets as the kind of plodding, defense-first team they were in Steve Clifford's first season, or only remember them from their first round exit against Dwyane Wade's Miami Heat, but Clifford has pushed the team into the future.
Over the second half of the season in 2015-16, the Hornets had the fourth best record in the NBA, two games ahead of the eventual champs. While they lost some role players, they brought back Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams and are benefitting from a returned and resurgent Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite essentially never having the ball in his hands (12.8% usage rate and 4.4% assist rate), getting MKG back has been a huge boost, thanks mainly to his defense (4.7 defensive Box Plus/Minus, a top 10 mark in the league).

Still, most of the credit should go to Kemba Walker. After taking a leap last season, he's done it again, adding three more points per game to go with a slight uptick in assists and steals. He's also shooting 43.5% from three, remarkable for a career 33% three-point shooter. While regression may be coming, Walker seems to have really developed as a shooter, and he could lead the Hornets deep into the playoffs.

Also shocking: the Chicago Bulls. Their offseason moves turned them into a bit of a laughingstock among savvy NBA fans, but it's the Bulls doing the laughing now. They have the fourth best offense in the league, by offensive rating, and the seventh best point differential. Still, there are warning signs. Their SRS is only 1.26, 12th in the NBA and more than three and a half points under their raw point differential. SRS isn't impressed with their schedule so far and, indeed, they've yet to test themselves against a truly impressive team.

That should change soon. They've got an upcoming road trip that will include showdowns with the Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, and Los Angeles Clippers. We should have a much better idea of who the Bulls are when they get back from the West Coast.

One surprise that hasn't been pleasant: the Boston Celitcs. Tipped to be the biggest challenge to a Cavaliers' three-peat, the Celtics are instead struggling. They're one game under .500 and stuck in the morass of Eastern Conference teams at or a little below .500. The situation may be even more worse than that paints; they're tied for 11th in SRS in the East.

The problems lay squarely at the feet of the defense. The Celtics have a defensive rating of 116.1, which is dead last in the NBA. That's a stunning turnaround a defense that was fourth in the league last year and added one of the best defensive players on the market in Al Horford. One problem: their defense around the arc. They've allowed 21.9% more three-point attempts and 40.3% more made threes. Some of that will regress from teams just missing shots, but if Boston doesn't defend these looks better, they're going to struggle to make the playoffs.

More must-reads:

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