Where did it all go wrong? A post-mortem for the Western Conference first round

Great Expectations: The Thunder went into the playoffs with the story of the season, triple-double machine and presumptive MVP Russell Westbrook. Megastar Kevin Durant left, but the Thunder tried to compensate surrounding Brodie with young lottery picks — Victor Oladipo (#2), Enes Kanter (#3), Domantas Sabonis (#11), Steven Adams (#12) — and a collection of players who could D up and rebound. Maybe they didn’t have the firepower of Houston, but they did have a bunch of athletic studs, plus a human Tasmanian devil in their backcourt. 

Drop That Nene: If you just look at the percentages, it seems like OKC did a decent job defending the dynamic Rockets offense. They were only 10-33 from three, and while 26 foul shots isn’t ideal, it’s not back-breaking either. Aspiring Sixth Men of the year Lou Williams and Eric Gordon combined for only 19 points. But just like Pam from Martin, the Thunder simply couldn’t deal with Nene. Nene Hilario was 7-8 for 15 points. Overall he was 28-33 in the series, just dominating the Thunder in bench lineups. In part because… 

Steven Adams Will Never Leave Russell Westbrook: There’s plenty of reasons why Billy Donovan might tether Steven Adams to Westbrook, who rarely played without the guard on the floor. Maybe he likes the synergy between them. Maybe after Durant’s departure, Donovan wants to assure Russ that this seven-footer won’t leave his sight, much less the state of Oklahoma. Maybe it’s more sinister, and the Thunder were using Adams to bolster Westbrook’s MVP case: Adams would block out so Russ could rack up rebounds, and with Adams always off the floor when Westbrook is, the on/off numbers would look tremendous.

This was true to a lesser extent for Victor Oladipo, who really should have handled the ball whenever Russ sat. Instead, journeyman Norris Cole was playing meaningful minutes in the playoffs, and the Thunder bench got torched over and over again when Russ sat. Which is one reason why...

Russell Westbrook Took 18 Shots In A Quarter: Kobe Bryant still has a copy of the Game 2 box score taped up in his muse cage, when Westbrook forgot he had teammates for the final 12 minutes of the game. He was 13-25 going into the 4th, and OKC led by three points. Then he shot 4-18 in the 4th. He had 14 misses, the same as the highest number of attempts any teammate had all game. Granted, “shoot your way out” is the strategy that led Oklahoma City to the playoffs in the first place, but it’s also the strategy that got Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid killed.

The Rise of Taj: Down 2-0 and returning home, Westbrook took a pedestrian 24 shots, in part thanks to Taj Gibson. Acquired at the trade deadline with Doug McDermott, both players were somewhat lost in the pageantry of Triple Double Fest 2017. Gibson was 10-13 for 20 points. And like a good teammate, he limited his rebounds to two so Russ could still triple-double.

Adios, Dipo: The remainder of the series followed the same pattern: the Thunder would play wonderfully for three quarters, and then the Rockets would slowly and inexorably crush them in the fourth. Some of it was Westbrook missing shots, but a huge amount of blame should fall on Oladipo and his 4-17 performance in Game 5. The inaccuracy even spread to his passes, as even simple dishes to teammates went flying into the stands near the end.

Despite all this criticism, the Thunder lost their last three games by a combined 14 points. They were very close to a very good team. Enes Kanter and Oladipo have long-term deals, but it’s not clear they’re the ideal fit for Russ. The question is whether they can get Westbrook more help, and if he can accept it. Because triple doubles are sweet, but single-round playoff appearances for the MVP leave a bad taste in your mouth. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Great Expectations: Memphis continually looks like their window is about to close. One of their stars gets hurt mid-season, there’s a losing streak where it looks like they’ll never break 100 points again, and then April rolls around and they’re the 7 seed again. This year it was Mike Conley breaking his back, Marc Gasol spraining his ankle and bruising his foot, and Chandler Parsons hobbled all season after getting knee surgery from Dr. Nick Rivera.

Ours Is Not To Stop Kahwi, Ours Is But To Do Or Die: In Games 1 and 2, Kawhi Leonard slaughtered the Grizzlies. He made 19 of his 28 field goal attempts, and all 28 of his free throw attempts. He also rebounded, distributed the ball, and stole a recipe for barbecue sauce. Zach Randolph and Vince Carter looked old, and just like the famous light brigade, Memphis simply didn’t have the shooting you need in a battle. Coach Fizdale called Kawhi a robot who "bleeds antifreeze," and he's not necessarily wrong.

Take That For Data: “Take that for data!” was the weirdest rallying cry, and perfect for Memphis. They exist in an odd NBA space: Their aesthetic is extremely blue-collar, grit-and-grind, yet they hired John Hollinger, your classic pocket protector-wearing numbers guy to work in the front office. Fizdale himself is like this: he wears huge thick glasses and has a voice that’s somehow deep and nasal at the same time — yet he’s got tattoos and a supermodel-esque wife. Fizdale got fined $30,000 for his rant, but he probably made up for it in t-shirt revenue alone.

And his complaint worked! Kawhi Leonard shot more free throws than the entire Memphis team in Game 2; in Game 3 he shot 4. When the coach takes a fine, when the manager gets himself thrown out a game, it shows the players he’s ride or die. They understand that everywhere, but especially in Memphis.

We Don’t Believe You, You Need More People: The series as a whole was a reminder to America of the greatness of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They play hard, they play smart, and they play tough. But part of smart basketball is hitting the open man, and Memphis just had too many open men that were afraid to shoot. They mixed and matched: Wayne Selden, James Ennis III, shuffling Zach Randolph into the starting lineup. But it felt like they were constantly plugging one leak to open another. Memphis couldn’t make threes in Game 5, and when they played better shooters in Game 6, the Spurs killed them on the offensive glass. It’s another disappointing exit for Memphis, yet it still feels like they’re a stretch power forward away from being a Finals contender. I’m not a numbers guy, but I think that adds up.

Los Angeles Clippers

Great Expectations: The story is the same it’s been the last six seasons: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan are all-NBA talents who have a supporting cast of old dudes past their prime, plus the coach’s son. They play good defense, they slow the game down, and they hope for some breaks that will get them out of the second round. This year is only different in that Paul, Jordan, and J.J. Redick are all free agents this summer, so it could be the end of an era! Or the continuation of the same era, which is both wildly disappointing and the greatest run of success in franchise history.

The Farm Systems: Doc Rivers and the Clips suffer from what seems to be a pathological reluctance to develop young players. The last Clippers draft pick to contribute to the team is Blake Griffin, who was drafted eight years ago. In Game 2, the Jazz got 25 quality minutes from late first-rounder Rodney Hood. The Clippers got 26 mediocre minutes from Paul Pierce and Raymond Felton. And the Jazz got 33 quality minutes from Joe Ingles, a player that the Clippers cut in training camp. If you’re under the age of 32, the only way you can crack the Clippers rotation is by being a blood relation of Doc Rivers.

The other reason for Clippers pessimism comes from their current edition of State Farm commercials. Previously, it was the combination of basketball savant Chris Paul, along with his twin Cliff Paul, excelling similarly at insurance and basketball. This year, the twin has been excised, and the commercials instead featured Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan destroying their house and getting punked by a band of feral skunks. If you can’t stop the motion offense of a group of skunks, how were they going to stop Gordon Hayward in Utah’s motion offense?

Be Careful What You Wish For: When Rudy Gobert got hurt mere seconds into Game 1, it seemed like the kind of break the Clippers never get. Usually it’s their guys getting banged up. Without Gobert, they managed to take advantage thanks to going small and the valuable playmaking ability of Blake Griffin.

This also happened last year, when the Clippers got their hopes up after Steph Curry suffered an MCL sprain in the first round. Another team’s injury was going to be their ticket to the Finals! And then the injury luck boomeranged around and hit them in the nuts, like a Chris Paul right hook. Last year it was Paul breaking his hand and Blake injuring his quad. This year? Blake suffered the worst stubbed toe of all time, and might miss up to 8 months.

ISO Joe: It seems ridiculous to say this in 2017, but the Clippers were derailed because they couldn't stop Joe Johnson. He hit the game-winner in Game 1, and scored 28 points in the Jazz Game 4 win. He rebounded, he scored, and he hit the open man. Joe Johnson is clearly Doc Rivers Kryptonite, because he's an Eastern Conference All-Star from ten years ago. Doc can't deal with that! Maybe if the Clippers had Gerald Wallace, or Antawn Jamison, or Richard Hamilton, then they could have survived the slow, iso onslaught. But they didn’t. And worse for Clippers fans, this will validate Doc’s belief that the only scouting tape he needs is footage of the 2009 playoffs.

Fifth Time's The Charm: The Clippers took a 2-1 lead in the series, but that's no guarantee of success. In fact, the Clippers had lost four straight series where they had a lead. With their backs against the wall in Game 6, they took a ten-point lead with a minute and a half to go. Then they blew almost the entirety of the lead, and escaped when Joe Johnson missed at the buzzer.

Even the office in Glengarry Glen Ross held leads better than the Clippers!  A Clipper ship is what they call a boat that crashes whenever it gets within sight of destination. Having saved their bacon in Game 6, the Clippers decided the best way not to blow a lead in Game 7 was to never take one at all. A 24-24 tie was as close as they got, and they lost their fifth series lead.

La La Land: The omens were all there, but the Clips were helpless to avoid them. As we learned at the Oscars this year, Los Angeles is helpless when it comes to Jazz.