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Five outrageous predictions for Championship Sunday
Can Cam Newton lead the Carolina Panthers to just their second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history? Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

Five outrageous predictions for Championship Sunday

There are generic predictions we can make regarding the upcoming conference championship games. Will Tom Brady lead his Patriots to yet another Super Bowl appearance? What team will earn its franchise's second Super Bowl trip in the NFC?

Those predictions are fine and dandy. They are likely created with an understanding of the overall matchups within each game. This is to say scribes simply aren't blindly throwing darts at a dartboard.

But what about predictions within the games themselves? Can a quarterback lead his team to a win even if he throws multiple interceptions? Will the road teams sweep Championship Sunday for just the third time in the past two decades?

These are among the five outrageous predictions for the conference championship bouts set to take place this weekend.

1. Both games will be decided by less than a touchdown

The point spreads for these two title bouts currently stand at just three. This seems to be an indication that Vegas is expecting close games. And for good reason.

Of the 12 combined losses by the four teams playing this weekend, less than half (five) were decided by more than one score. This means these four squads have remained relatively competitive, even in defeat.

The idea that both games will be close doesn't necessarily match up too well with history. A total of 10 of the past 13 AFC Championship games have been decided by multiple scores. In the NFC, the past eight conference title games have been decided by one score.

This makes us want to look a bit more at the AFC than the NFC when it comes to a potential blowout. Considering Carolina and Arizona lost a combined two games by more than one score, this makes even more sense.

The New England Patriots aren't going to get blown out. That's rarely happened during the Tom Brady era. In fact, he's lost only four games by more than one score over the past five seasons.

One of the interesting things to look at here is just how poorly Peyton Manning has performed in Denver losses over the past few years.

In the nine regular-season games he's lost since joining the Broncos back in 2013, Manning has thrown 16 touchdowns compared to 18 interceptions. Despite his negative touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Broncos have lost those nine games by an average of less than nine points per game.

That's the thing. If Manning does throw interceptions, he has the defense to be able to hold the other squad out of the end zone. Whether that rings true against an elite Patriots offense remains to be seen.

Either way, it's highly unlikely we are going to see a blowout come this weekend. In this, the expectation has to be that both games will come down to the wire.

2. Two quarterbacks with multiple-interception games

Of the four quarterbacks starting this weekend, only Carson Palmer put up multiple interceptions in the Divisional Round. The other three signal callers combined for three touchdowns and zero picks.

Considering Palmer's questionable decision making against an average Green Bay Packers defense last week, the expectation here has to be that he's going to have a hard time avoiding the turnover bug against an elite-level Carolina Panthers defense that yielded the lowest opposing quarterback rating in the NFL during the regular season.

With just one interception per 50 passes during the regular year, Cam Newton was among the best in the business at avoiding interceptions. It is, however, interesting that over half of his 10 interceptions came at home.

All said, Newton has thrown just one pick in his past 250-plus pass attempts. Let's go ahead and eliminate him from contention here.

The obvious choice to throw multiple picks in the AFC Championship game is Manning. While Newton went an average of 50 pass attempts for every interception he threw this year, Manning threw a pick every 19 times he threw the ball.

Taking on a Patriots defense that picked off just 12 passes during the regular season, Manning might have an easier go at it. That's until we realize that one quarter of his 24 postseason interceptions have come against the Patriots.

He seems to tense up in matchups against Brady — a clear indication that something could go horribly awry come Sunday.

None of this means that the Broncos and Cardinals are guaranteed to lose should their quarterbacks throw multiple interceptions. We have definitely seen stranger things happen.

3. Both road teams will come out on top

The last time both road teams won on Championship Sunday was back in January 2013, when Baltimore and San Francisco came out on top. Interestingly, Baltimore's win was against the Patriots.

Overall, this has only happened two times over the past 20 years and just three times since 1970. Needless to say, road teams sweeping the Conference Championship Round has been rare.

New England is favored over the Broncos in Denver. As the defending champions and boasting a quarterback who's had more postseason success than any other of his era, this shouldn't be much of a surprise.

We can point to the Broncos' vastly superior defense. We can also point to this game being played in Denver. None of that changes the fact that New England possesses a quarterback who's leaps and bounds better than his counterpart at this stage of their respective careers.

While we want to preview this game from all different aspects, one thing stands out above the rest. The better quarterback has usually finished on top in the AFC Championship game over the past decade.

From Ben Roethlisberger taking out Jake Plummer and the Broncos in the 2005 title game to Brady defeating Andrew Luck last January, this has been a common happening in recent years.

It also doesn't help here that Manning is making just his second start since Week 10. Whether it was in fact due to his foot injury or simply performing at a low level, he wasn't on the field during the Broncos' run to the playoffs.

Can Manning do what's needed here to keep his team afloat and give it a shot to win? Based off his recent track record (13 touchdowns, 24 interceptions in his past 15 starts), we can't be too sure of this.

In the NFC Championship game, the clear advantage at quarterback has to go to Cam Newton. He's coming off what should end up being an MVP performance from the regular season.

He's also been playing at a level rarely achieved by quarterbacks in recent league history. Including last week's victory over Seattle, Newton has tallied 27 total touchdowns compared to one interception in his past nine starts. He's also posted a ridiculous 116.0 quarterback rating and 66.2 completion percentage during that span.

The issue here for Carolina is that Arizona might just be the better all-around team. And in reality, the difference between quarterbacks is nowhere near as vast as it is in the AFC.

Let's say Josh Norman can find a way to shut down Larry Fitzgerald, who is going to stop John Brown and Michael Floyd from producing at high levels? Floyd is coming off a two-touchdown performance against Green Bay last week. Meanwhile, Brown put up 1,000 yards as a sophomore during the regular season.

We can't honestly believe a 31-year-old corner in Cortland Finnegan and a 33-year-old safety in Roman Harper will be able to keep the back end of Carolina's defense in front of these two studly young receivers.

We also have to take into account Carolina's lack of weapons on the outside. Ted Ginn led all Panthers wide receivers with 44 receptions during the regular season. He also caught just 44 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. That's not necessarily a recipe for success against Patrick Peterson.

Sure, Greg Olsen should find himself producing at a relatively high level at tight end, but the Cardinals also have players to match up against him, mainly linebacker Kevin Minter and safety Rashad Johnson.

If the Panthers' passing game falters here, the primary issue will be getting some balance on the ground. Jonathan Stewart did perform at a high level last week, scoring two touchdowns against a top-ranked Seattle run defense. He did, however, suffer an ankle injury. Knowing Stewart's checkered injury history, it's hard to assume he's going to be 100 percent come Sunday.

Add in the fact that Arizona ranked in the top six of the NFL against the run, and that has to be an area of concern for Carolina.

These are all indicators that the Cardinals should come out on top Sunday. And even if Palmer does throw an interception or two, the rest of the team should be able to pick up the slack.

4. New England Patriots will gain more rushing yards than the Denver Broncos

This is completely out of left field, isn't it? Patriots running backs combined for 21 yards on seven attempts against Kansas City in the Divisional Round. Heck, the team threw on all 11 passes during its game-opening, touchdown-scoring drive.

Meanwhile, Denver racked up 109 yards on 33 attempts against an elite-level Pittsburgh Steelers run defense.

So what gives?

As we have seen throughout his tenure in New England, Bill Belichick has continually found a way to scheme his team in order to take into account how a game is trending. That's why Brady put it up all 11 times in the opening drive last week.

Denver boasts the league's best pass defense. It is most definitely going to be playing the pass early and often come Sunday. This will leave the box open for the likes of Steven Jackson and potentially even Brandon Bolden to run through.

How quick Denver's defense is to react to New England's change of philosophy could dictate just how successful the Patriots are on the ground.

Denver's rushing game has performed at a much higher level recently. Including the 109-yard performance last week, it has put up 100-plus yards in seven of the team's past eight games.

There are, however, two thing we have to take into account here. Denver averaged just 77 rushing yards when Manning started during the regular season. Compare that to the 157 it averaged with Brock Osweiler under center, and one thing is readily apparent. Opposing defenses simply don't respect Denver's passing game with Manning under center.

This means the Broncos are likely going to face a stacked box come Sunday with New England forcing Manning to beat its defense. That's an indication the Broncos will struggle on the ground.

5. No 100-yard rusher

We already know that the NFL has been trending to pass-first offenses over the past several seasons. Just look who will be under center come Sunday. Carson Palmer, Cam Newton and Tom Brady are the top three likely MVP candidates. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has won five MVP awards by himself.

Carolina and Arizona both ended the regular season with top 10 rushing attacks. Though, it's important to note that Newton accounted for well over a quarter of the Panthers' rushing yards. Meanwhile, a rookie in David Johnson absolutely dominated on the ground for the Cardinals after Chris Johnson went down with injury.

The issue here for both top-flight rushing attacks is that they are also taking on top-end run defenses. Carolina finished fourth against the run with Arizona coming in sixth overall. In fact, Carolina has allowed just 100 rushing yards once in its past 10 games.

The AFC Championship game boasts two anemic rushing attacks. New England finished 30th in the NFL in rushing while the Broncos were ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in that category. As we mentioned above, Denver's stats are a bit skewed based on the success it had running the ball with Osweiler under center.

All this seems to be an indication that Sunday's conference title games will represent much of the same from a league that's been leaning heavily toward the pass in recent seasons.

Check out Vincent’s other work on eDraft.com and follow him on Twitter. His work can also be seen on MSN, Fox Sports and Forbes.

Can you name every team to have never won a Super Bowl?
SCORE:
0/12
TIME:
2:00
AFC
Cincinnati Bengals
AFC
Buffalo Bills
AFC
Cleveland Browns
NFC
Arizona Cardinals
AFC
San Diego Chargers
NFC
Atlanta Falcons
AFC
Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC
Detroit Lions
NFC
Carolina Panthers
AFC
Houston Texans
AFC
Tennessee Titans
NFC
Minnesota Vikings

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