How the Patriots should handle their key outgoing free agents

The New England Patriots look like a new organization just a few weeks into the offseason. New head coach Jerod Mayo is conducting a complete overhaul of the staff, and the roster will be next once free agency opens March 13.

In light of the rebuilding, it will be important for Mayo to keep his locker room together by retaining key free agents.

New England's free agents include tight end Hunter Henry, tackle Trent Brown, running back Ezekiel Elliott and safety Kyle Dugger. How Mayo handles these players could determine the outcome of the 2024 season.

Tight end Hunter Henry

Of New England's free-agent class, Henry is one of the most important names for Mayo to consider.

As a team captain who also led the team in touchdown receptions (six), Henry is a staple to the team on and off the field. The work Henry has done in the red zone since joining the Patriots in 2021 places him as one of the better tight ends in the league.

Even under a new head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback for the 2024 season, Henry still has the tools and talent to flourish like he has for the past three seasons. There has been little to show that he can't meet the expectations placed before him.

Based on Kansas City Chiefs elite tight end Travis Kelce's average annual salary ($14.3 million), Henry's contract could be around $8 to $10 million a year, which the Patriots are capable of handling. 

Allowing Henry to walk would mean having to find a new starting tight end, incorporating him into the offensive system and adjusting him throughout the season. Mayo's plate is already full with offensive, defense and special teams coordinator interviews. Re-signing Henry saves headaches and potential disaster.  

Tackle Trent Brown

The Patriots need someone who is motivated and wants to play for the team at tackle, which is why they should let Brown walk.

Per Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald, in September 2023, Brown received over $2 million in incentives to stay on the field, but the Patriots had trouble "keeping him motivated over the final weeks of the season." 

Brown also stirred controversy after openly sharing free-agency plans, presumably in front of teammates and coaches, per a different Boston Herald report. 

“Brown had dealt with knee and ankle injuries in late October, and had his mind on free agency. After a surprising upset at Pittsburgh, Brown openly discussed plans to play for an NFC team in the team locker room." 

The Patriots have had frustrating quarterback issues for the last three seasons, and this could be the offseason they fix it. New England should not trust someone like Brown — who has made his feelings about the organization clear — to protect the blindside of the franchise’s most important player. 

Running back Ezekiel Elliott

Elliott’s 2023 campaign was nothing short of a gritty masterpiece, and he deserves another shot with a more competitive Patriots offense.

Playing for perhaps the the worst offense in franchise history, Elliott picked up 955 total yards (642 rushing yards, 313 receiving yards) and five touchdowns. He did all of his work in the face of immense criticism and proved that he was more than a shadow of his former self. 

Elliott was also quiet and humble amid the Patriots’ frustrating 2023 campaign. His discreet appearance to the media was relieving, and it is a personality trait that head coach Jerod Mayo must reward. Elliott should be atop New England’s priorities.

Safety Kyle Dugger

As much as Dugger was a force for disruption during his Patriots career, his price tag is too hefty and there are too many unanswered questions for there to be a clear direction.

Dugger’s asking price should be reflective of a top-10 safety — which, in the current market, means over  $12 million per year — and it is unclear whether that price makes sense considering the current state of the Patriots. 

New England has been known for its stellar defense for dozens of years. Former head coach Bill Belichick specialized in crafting and coaching a defense that could thwart any opposition that came its way. Once he parted ways with the organization, there were concerns that the move could severely set back the defense.

To an extent, Mayo’s experience in a Belichick system both as a player and coach diminishes the concern that the defense will decline. Letting a versatile and experienced player like Dugger leave, however, will not help to further decrease doubt surrounding the defensive unit. 

If they find the right replacement, the Patriots can probably afford to let Dugger go. If the Patriots whiff on a replacement, however, then the defense could take a severe hit: the last thing a team with a rebuilding offense needs.

At this point in the offseason, it is murky about what the best course of action is. If Mayo crafts a defensive staff that specializes in player development, then drafting a cheap, high-caliber player early in the draft is the smart move. For now, the Patriots should sit on their hands and see how other things play out before pulling — or not pulling — the trigger on Dugger.