Yardbarker
x
Inside the (underrated?) NFL Hall of Fame class of 2016
Getty Images

Inside the (underrated?) NFL Hall of Fame class of 2016

by Jonah Gardner

There's no shortage of big names in the 2016 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class, as legends like Brett Favre, Marvin Harrison, and Tony Dungy head to Canton. But despite the star power, statistically and historically, this year's crop of Hall of Famers can seem a little lacking.

Favre's best season was 60th all-time in passing yards, behind predecessors like Dan Marino, contemporaries like Drew Bledsoe, and, of course, the next generation of star quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Harrison's game lacked the electricity of Randy Moss or the showmanship of Terrell Owens. Dungy always seemed to be outfoxed by his rival, Bill Belichick. Since 1990, 40 defensive players have made more All-Pro First Teams than Kevin Greene.

The game has changed at such a rapid pace that it's diminished some of the raw statistics by this year's Hall of Fame class. But make no mistake, these are some of the greatest players of all-time. Perhaps even better than you remember. Let's take a look.

Brett Favre:

Brett Favre played a lot of football. No one spent more seasons as a starting QB in NFL history, had a longer streak of 3,000-yard, 18-TD seasons, or played more games (regular season and playoffs combined) with a passer rating over 100 than Favre. But this cuts both ways. In examining whether Favre was one of the top 5 QBs of all-time, he can seem more like a compiler, finishing at or near the top in just about every statistical measure for his career, even while his single-season numbers are lacking. In addition to the aforementioned passing yards ranking, his best season in passer rating is 24th all-time and his best season in passing touchdowns is tied with 6 other QBs for 12th.

By adjusted net yards per attempt, a stat that adjusts yards per attempt to account for touchdowns, interceptions, and sack yards, Favre's best season (7.63 in 2009) would only rank 4th in 2015. His career average of 5.93 would rank 24th, barely ahead of Ryan Tannehill.

With the dawning realization of the importance of efficiency among QBs, and the growth of spread passing attacks, Favre's numbers have started to look tarnished. Here's a table that might give any Favre supporter serious pause:


That's Favre and Cutler's strikingly similar per game numbers through age-32. But the case against Favre ignores his era. Fortunately, we don't have to. Pro-Football-Reference publishes a series of Index stats for QBs. If you're familiar with baseball stats, you may know about OPS+ or ERA+, which compare a player's OPS or ERA to the rest of the league, putting them on a scale where 100 is league average.

The concept behind these advanced passing stats is the same. The player's numbers in categories like completion percentage or yards per attempt are compared to the league average over the three-year period with that season in the middle to see how many standard deviations away from league average they were. They're then converted to the index, with 100 equaling exactly league average.

If your eyes glazed over in that last paragraph, here's the point. In 2000, Brett Favre had a passer rating of 78.0, while in 2014, Jay Cutler's was 88.6. Yet both have a 100 in indexed passer rating (Rate+), because their QB ratings were, more or less, exactly league average.

These indexed stats help us see Favre's accomplishments in a different light. Favre only cracked 7.0% in Touchdown Percentage once in his career, but he had 5 seasons with a TD%+ over 130, the most of any QB. Despite his reputation as a gun-slinger, his career Cmp%+ of 111 is actually better than Tom Brady's.

But these index stats also complicate some of Favre's claim to greatness. He did finish with a below average INT%+ for his career, not a good look for someone making a claim as a top 5 all-time QB. And remember that season he was 24th all-time in passer rating? Well, by Rate+, it was 66th all-time (though a different season came in slightly higher, at 60th).

But here's the crazy thing about that season: it was 2009, when Favre was 40 years old. By most measures, that year was Favre's 2nd or 3rd best season and, again, it came at an age when very few athletes can even still continue to play, let alone produce at an elite level. Given the weird circumstances that brought him to the Minnesota Vikings, it was hard to appreciate at the time, but Favre's 2009 is a truly rare accomplishment. It was almost certainly the best NFL season by a player in his 40s and looking across basketball, hockey, and baseball, there are few other examples of a player producing at an MVP level at that age.

In the end, Favre's case as one of the greatest ever to play is padded and riddled with holes. But it's still quite a case.

Marvin Harrison:

Like Favre, everyone recognizes Harrison as a great player while largely putting him a tier below all-timers. Jerry Rice, of course, is in his own tier, but contemporaries like Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Tim Brown, and Terrell Owens are often rated ahead of Harrison, largely because Harrison had the good fortune to spend his career alongside one of the greatest QBs of all time.

The numbers do bear this out somewhat. Harrison's pre-Manning numbers (4.3 receptions per game and 53.2 yards per game), don't necessarily foreshadow a Hall of Fame career.

But guess what, it turns out you need a good QB to be a great Wide Receiver. You can play this game with almost any great WR: Randy Moss averaged 3.5 Rec/G and 53.7 Yrd/G in Oakland, Cris Carter averaged 3.2 Rec/G and 45.3 Y/G until Warren Moon showed up. The key is to make the most of a good opportunity, which Marvin Harrison certainly did.

Harrison had the most seasons by a WR with an Approximate Value (a catch-all stat for measuring player production, regardless of position) over 15 and the most consecutive seasons with 1,000 receiving yards and 10 receiving TDs. Only 4 players have two of the Top 20 receiving yard seasons ever and Harrison is one of them.

You may want to knock Harrison for getting lucky, but he certainly made the most of his chance to play with a future Hall of Famer.

Kevin Greene:

Kevin Greene got sacks. He's 3rd all-time in sacks, the 3rd player to have 10 10-sack seasons, and the 3rd most 2-sack games ever. If you're talking sacks, you're talking about Reggie White, Bruce Smith, and then Kevin Greene.

But Greene's legacy is a little more complex than that. While he was on 5 Top 5 defenses, he was also on 5 bottom 5 defenses in his career. And no player had more seasons with double-digit sacks, but a single-digit AV than Greene.

There's much more to defensive success than one player, but perhaps Greene's average tackle numbers indicate a more limited defensive player than his eye-popping sack numbers would point to. Or maybe I'm over-thinking this and Kevin Greene was still really, really good.

Orlando Pace:

You know who else was really, really good? Orlando Pace. The Greatest Show on Turf's equivalent of a 5th Beatle, Pace has never gotten enough credit for doing the dirty work that kept one of the most beautiful machines in NFL history running.

Not only does his 2000 season rank as the best tackle season ever by AV, but Pace is the only T to have two 20-AV seasons. He played the most important offensive line position while Kurt Warner had the best yards per attempt season in NFL History, per Y/A+.

Even with the weighty expectations that come with being a #1 draft pick, Pace impressed. He tied Terry Bradshaw for the 4th best #1 pick ever, according to weighted AV. All the fun you had watching Kurt Warner chuck bombs and Marshall Faulk break 50-yard runs? You have Orlando Pace to thank for that.

Tony Dungy:

Tony Dungy got off to an inauspicious start as an NFL head coach, going 6-10 in 1996 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dungy must not have enjoyed losing because he was in no rush to do it again. Dungy never had another losing season after that first one, and only finished at .500 one time.

He may not be considered an innovator, but Dungy knew how to build a defense. He coached 12 Top 10 defenses, either as Head Coach or Defensive Coordinator. He showed a unique ability among coaches to evolve and improve as needed, coaching top 3 defenses 14 years apart, in the wildly different offensive contexts of 1993 and 2007.

That improvement went to the offensive end too. Dungy never had an offense finish above 15th in Tampa, but as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, he presided over 6 Top 8 offenses. And even if the reason for that was handing over the offensive keys to Peyton Manning, that shows a remarkable about of trust (and lack of ego) that's rare among head coaches.

Dungy's easy-going personality and conservative play-calling are traits we don't usually find in a Hall of Fame head coach. But if the main role of a head coach is to enable great players to be great, Dungy was one of the best to ever do it.

Ken Stabler:

If Favre's case is one largely based on longevity, Stabler's is all peak, baby. A product of a different era, it may be fitting that Stabler's only now making the Hall of Fame, since his peak reflected a lot of the qualities we look for in today's QBs. Take a look at Ken Stabler's 1976 index stats side-by-side with Tom Brady's 2007 ones:


Stabler threw too many picks, but otherwise, those seasons are strikingly similar. That year, Stabler posted the 6th best single-season TD%+ ever and, even if you prefer raw numbers, he's one of 3 players post-merger to have a TD% over 9.

Stabler posted these eye-popping numbers despite not really throwing that much comparably. In fact, he's the only person to throw over 25 TDs on under 300 attempts and only person to throw over 20 on under-300 twice.

As you may know, Stabler (and owner Al Davis), liked the bomb. In that epic 1976 season, Ken Stabler averaged 9.41 yards per pass attempt, becoming the first QB post-merger to do that. No one would beat that mark for two decades (and only three QBs in total have ever hit).

Dick Stanfel:

A Guard from the 1950s might not be the most exciting inductee, but Dick Stanfel has quite the resume. He's tied for the 14th most All-Pro 1st team appearances by a Guard and a member of the Pro-Football-Reference All-1950s team.

Edward DeBartolo, Jr.

Lastly, we step in the owner's suite. DeBartolo owned the San Francisco 49ers for 23 years and presided over one of the greatest runs of success by any NFL team, and perhaps even any American sports franchise. From 1980 (the first year Bill Walsh served as head coach) to 1998 (the last year Steve Young started double-digit games), the Niners had a point differential of +2,598.

Not only was that the best in the NFL, it was nearly triple the point differential of the second ranked team, the Dallas Cowboys (+876). Their winning percentage in that time was an eye-popping 72.1%, which is roughly 11.5 wins per year in a 16-game season. He also presided over 16 straight seasons of 10 or more wins, the longest such streak in NFL history. It's safe to say DeBartolo had one of the most fun ownership experiences ever.

So while none of this year's inductees can really be considered the best or even Top 3 to play their positions, they still bring an impressive statistical record with them to Canton.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

+

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.