NFL Week 13 matchups: An insiders' guide

SUNDAY

Tennessee (6-5) at Indianapolis (6-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Titans numbers: Ryan Tannehill has been outstanding, posting a 114.9 passer rating over his five starts. Since Week 7, that ranks third best among the 26 quarterbacks with at least four starts. In Week 13, Tannehill has a chance to become the first quarterback in Titans history to post a passer rating of 130.0 or better in three consecutive games. 

Inside Titans roster: Although future “Hall of Very Good” icon Cameron Wake produced 2.5 sacks in Week 1, Tennessee’s investment in the longtime Miami sack dynamo has not worked out. Wake, who did not record a sack since his Titans debut, has just four tackles and is now on IR. The 37-year-old linebacker’s three-year, $23 million deal calls for an $8.6M 2020 cap number. That might be too pricey after this season.

Inside Colts numbers: Indianapolis has under 200 yards in five consecutive games. Jacoby Brissett has one touchdown pass over his past four games and only four passes in the red zone during that span. Mustering long drives will be especially difficult against a Titans defense allowing the sixth-fewest red-zone trips per game (2.8). 

Inside Colts roster: On the heels of his 14-touchdown season, Eric Ebron will finish this one on IR after scoring just three. The Colts appeared to be caught off guard by what the sixth-year tight end described as a nagging ankle injury, one that rarely limited him in practice. They must deal with another injury to a pass-catching corps that’s missed both receiver starters for much of the season. Seventh-year veteran Jack Doyle will become Indianapolis’ primary tight end, and with Ebron heading to free agency under these circumstances, it will be interesting to see if the Colts pursue a reunion.

N.Y. Jets (4-7) at Cincinnati (0-11), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jets numbers: With a sack in four consecutive games, safety Jamal Adams has 12 over his three-year career, the most for a defensive back through his first three seasons. With 6.5 sacks in 2019, Adams is 1.5 shy of Adrian Wilson's season record for a defensive back, set in 2005 with the Cardinals. 

Inside Jets roster: New York’s sack distribution looks interesting. Behind Adams’ surprising total, outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins has five. But no other member of the Jets’ pass-rushing contingent has more than 1.5. And DE Leonard Williams did not register any before being traded to the Giants. Gregg Williams’ unit did well to mow down the Raiders in Week 12, doing so with only one sack, but Gang Green will still need to zero in on pass rushers (again) in the offseason.

Inside Bengals numbers: Bengals fans will not miss watching rookie Ryan Finley, who posted a 47.1 completion percentage (league average 64) and just two touchdown passes over his three starts, in which Cincinnati averaged 11 points. Andy Dalton, who ranks 33rd of 34 qualifiers in passer rating (79.2), may not be much of an improvement. 

Inside Bengals roster: Going back to Dalton feels like a face-saving move for Cincinnati, which may hurt its big-picture outlook by benching the less effective Finley. While avoiding 0-16 is relatively important, Dalton is competent enough to cost the Bengals the No. 1 overall pick – in a pursuit featuring the Dolphins’ rich man’s XFL roster. It has taken the No. 1 pick to secure the top quarterback prospect in four of the past five drafts. The Bengals are trapped until they land a better passer, and it’s strange to see them risk the top pick in order to win games in a lost season.

Washington (2-9) at Carolina (5-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Redskins numbers: The offense is brutal, ranking 32nd in points per drive (1.16). If it maintains its current average of 13.1 points per game, this would be the lowest-scoring Redskins team since 1961 (12.4 points per game). 

Inside Redskins roster: For all the problems this organization is facing, it did well to extend defensive end Matt Ioaniddis when it did. Washington’s three-year, $21.75 million deal in April has paid off. Had Ioaniddis tested the market in 2020, he would have likely been in the market for much bigger contract. The former fifth-round pick has already eclipsed his tackle-for-loss high (now at seven) and has 11 QB hits and a team-high 5.5 sacks – including one of Washington’s six against Detroit in Week 12.  

Inside Panthers numbers: This is not the tough Carolina defense of old, as the Panthers rank 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed (19), 30th in yards per rush attempt allowed (5.0), and 28th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (64.1 percent). To save the Panthers' season, and potentially Ron Rivera's job, the defense must prove it can dominate a Redskins rushing attack ranked 25th in EPA.

Inside Panthers roster: Carolina came into this season with a high-profile defensive line, but with Dontari Poe now joining Kawann Short on the Panthers’ IR list, only summer acquisition Gerald McCoy remains from that trio. The Panthers signed ex-Raiders and Redskins defensive tackle Stacy McGee, but a defense already struggling to stop running backs with Poe will be more vulnerable down the stretch. That will not do hot-seat coach Ron Rivera any favors as owner David Tepper evaluates his future.

San Francisco (10-1) at Baltimore (9-2), 1 p.m. ET

Inside 49ers numbers: San Francisco leads the NFL in sack rate (11.8 percent) and fewest net yards per pass attempt allowed (4.0). End Nick Bosa is a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year, leading the league in pass rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate) with 54 pressures (eighth most) over 282 rushes.

Inside 49ers roster: Arik Armstead is delivering one of the best contract years in recent memory; his status as the 49ers’ fourth-highest-profile pass rusher illustrates the stacked defensive line they’ve built. The 2015 first-round pick had 10 sacks in his first four seasons; he has a 49ers-best 10 in 11 games this season. Players like this are why the franchise tag exists, and while the 49ers are projected to have less cap space (barely $16 million) than what it will cost to tag Armstead, the 6-foot-7 power rusher’s work this season should force the team to do what’s necessary to at least keep him through 2020.

Inside Ravens numbers: Lamar Jackson has posted a passer rating over 139 in three consecutive games, tied for the longest streak in league history with Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Roger Staubach. He is already just 176 yards shy of Michael Vick's quarterback rush yardage record (1,039 yards), and is on pace to beat it by 235 yards.

Inside Ravens roster: Amid one of the decade’s most explosive midseason stretches, Baltimore lost center Matt Skura to a season-ending injury. Taking over at center after Ryan Jensen’s 2018 defection to Tampa Bay, Skura had not missed a snap since the start of last season. The Ravens hold an insane-looking edge in rushing, with their 210.5 yards per game sixty-five better than anyone else’s, and rookie UDFA Patrick Mekari is set to be the next man up. Mekari did not earn first-team All-Pac-12 honors while at Cal and never started at center in college, working primarily as the Golden Bears’ left tackle.

Tampa Bay (4-7) at Jacksonville (4-7), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Bucs numbers: Coordinator Todd Bowles' defense is excellent against the run, ranking second in fewest yards per rush allowed (3.5) and third in rush defense EPA. Safety Jordan Whitehead ranks sixth at his position in run stop percentage, picking up a stop (a run that constitutes negative value for the offense) on 6.2 percent of his run defense snaps. 

Inside Bucs roster: If Arik Armstead looks like a 49ers franchise tag candidate, Shaq Barrett is a classic tag option in Tampa. The longtime Broncos backup has 12.5 sacks and five forced fumbles, doing a strong Von Miller impression for his new team. Signed to a one-year, $4 million deal due to minimal interest, Barrett is already sixth on the Bucs’ season sack list and 3.5 away from Warren Sapp’s 19-year-old record. The approximately $16M franchise tag (if Barrett is classified as a linebacker) would represent a major raise for Barrett, an ex-UDFA, and give the Bucs time to work out an extension.

Inside Jaguars numbers: The Jags struggle to create room for Leonard Fournette, who averages the fifth-fewest yards before contact per carry (1.44) among running backs with 100-plus attempts. After averaging 102.1 rushing yards per game on five yards per attempt through Week 7, Fournette is averaging 59 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per attempt over his past four games. 

Inside Jaguars roster: Jacksonville showing its 2017 run to the AFC title game to be fluky should not bode well for Doug Marrone and GM Dave Caldwell. Tom Coughlin’s clash with CB Jalen Ramsey may even make the executive VP and former Jaguars head coach vulnerable. The Jags are 9-18 since the start of last season. Having seen his team blown out by AFC South rivals in consecutive weeks, owner Shad Khan will surely be pondering a full-scale overhaul.

Cleveland (5-6) at Pittsburgh (6-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Browns numbers: Baker Mayfield has been one of the league's top-10 quarterbacks, according to QBR, in three consecutive games. That is tied with the Jets' Sam Darnold and trails only Baltimore's Lamar Jackson (six games) for the longest active such streak in the league.

Inside Browns roster: Not one of the flashy names on Cleveland’s roster, Joe Schobert has been indispensable in his contract year. The fourth-year linebacker has 97 tackles – 50 more than any other Brown – and a career-high four interceptions. A 2017 Pro Bowler, Schobert and the Browns have engaged in extension discussions. Such a deal would be interesting given the Browns’ expensive off-ball linebacker re-ups in recent years. With the Jamie Collins and Christian Kirksey deals – the latter still on the Browns’ books – not working out, Schobert talks could become a bit more complicated.

Inside Steelers numbers: Pittsburgh's pass rush is dominant at Heinz Field, leading the NFL with a 12.7 percent sack rate and an average of five sacks per game. Linebacker T.J. Watt has nine sacks, four forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries over just six games in Pittsburgh.

Inside Steelers roster: If Mike Tomlin steers this Pittsburgh team further into playoff contention, he should be on the Coach of the Year radar. The Steelers starting Devlin Hodges – a Division I-FCS prospect who was not on their Week 1 roster – may torpedo the franchise’s hopes for Mason Rudolph, on whom the team reportedly placed a first-round grade last year. This team already has more wins than the 2018 Jaguars, who had an experienced quarterback limiting a menacing defense. The oft-criticized coach should not enter 2020 on a remotely warm seat.

Green Bay (8-3) at N.Y. Giants (2-9), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Packers numbers: The offense is prone to poor performances on the road, putting up no more than 11 points or 213 yards in three away games (at Chicago, L.A. Chargers, and San Francisco). Green Bay averages 18.8 points per game on the road, more than only Pittsburgh among teams currently in playoff position. 

Inside Packers roster: Another knee injury for Bryan Bulaga will limit Green Bay’s offensive line, but fortunately for Matt LaFleur’s group, the 10th-year right tackle did not suffer ACL damage. Backup Alex Light allowed 7½ combined pressures to the 49ers’ Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead in Week 12, and while the Packers’ schedule does not feature another pass rush like this, LaFleur suggested he may reshuffle the line to put a better right tackle option out there. Bulaga’s right MCL sprain is at least not in the same knee that required ACL reconstructive surgeries in 2013 and ’17, but this stalls potential momentum for another extension.

Inside Giants numbers: QB Daniel Jones' fumbling is a chronic issue, as he leads the NFL with 10 lost fumbles and 14 total fumbles. Jones is on pace for 21 fumbles, which would tie the rookie record shared by Tony Banks (1996) and David Carr (2002).

Inside Giants roster: Although Evan Engram has a chance of missing a third straight game because of a mid-foot sprain, the Giants still face a fairly easy decision on the tight end’s fifth-year option. The Giants must decide in May whether to pick up Engram’s 2021 option, but even with the 2017 first-rounder having missed nine games as a pro, tight end production is in a rough place. This is the Giants’ most productive tight end since Jeremy Shockey, and he stands to help Jones’ development. Securing an extra year of rookie-contract control should not be an issue.

Philadelphia (5-6) at Miami (2-9), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Eagles numbers: Philadelphia is coming off of its first stretch of back-to-back home games with 10 points or fewer since 2013. Carson Wentz has regressed, dropping to 20th in passer rating (89.6) after ranking seventh (102.2) in 2018. Injuries to the receiving corps have made life tough on Wentz, as the Eagles are tied for seventh in drops (21) and own the league's fifth-worst team receiving grade at Pro Football Focus. 

Inside Eagles roster: GM Howie Roseman’s recent wide receiver moves have not worked out, and the position will be a glaring draft need. The Eagles appear to have erred by giving Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson the contracts they did. Jeffery’s one-year deal in 2017 helped the Eagles’ Super Bowl team, but Roseman authorizing the $13 million-per-year extension later that year will hurt future Eagles editions. The declining wideout is not a cut candidate until 2021, and even then, it will be costly. At $9M per year, Jackson resides in the same boat.

Inside Dolphins numbers: Miami averaged 6.5 points over its four games prior to its bye. The Dolphins have scored from 14 to 26 points in each of their seven games since the bye week, averaging 19.6 points over that span. WR DeVante Parker's resurgence has helped stabilize things, as he is averaging career-bests in receiving yards (63.2) and first downs (3.4) per game. 

Inside Dolphins roster: With Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain on IR, Miami’s secondary consists of former Patriot Eric Rowe and a host of DBs certain fantasy owners know because of receivers’ recent stat lines against them. The Dolphins will have offseason needs nearly everywhere, but it’s possible they’ll need at least three new secondary starters. McCain, extended under GM Mike Tannenbaum’s watch last year, may not be a lock to be back. That would create four first-string needs. Rowe is a free agent at season’s end, leaving the Dolphins with a critical position group to address next year.

L.A. Rams (6-5) at Arizona (3-7-1), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Rams numbers: Jared Goff has been a liability since signing his new deal, ranking 30th in QBR (38.4) and 31st in passer rating (80.3). Los Angeles is 20th in points per drive (1.80), after placing third in each of head coach Sean McVay's first two seasons. An injury-plagued offensive line is the primary reason for the regression of Goff and the offense. 

Inside Rams roster: Did the Jaguars trade CB Jalen Ramsey to a sinking ship? The contracts given to Goff, RB Todd Gurley and WR Brandin Cooks look like three of the league’s worst, and Ramsey’s impending deal – which will likely be a major markup for the cornerback market – will only further plunge the Rams into strange territory. The Rams’ mega-extensions created significant challenges even if the big-ticket players were playing well.

Inside Cardinals numbers: Kyler Murray looks like the real deal, ranking ninth in QBR (62.8) at just 22 years old. Averaging 245.7 passing yards per game and a 91.2 passer rating, Murray is on track to join Baker Mayfield as the only rookie quarterback to post a 90-plus passer rating and average over 240 passing yards per game (minimum 10 starts).

Inside Cardinals roster: Given where the pass rusher market has gone, Arizona did well to secure Chandler Jones at $16.5 million per year. Signed through 2021 at this now-middle-class rate – behind the likes of Olivier Vernon and Frank Clark – Jones has made the largely infallible Patriots’ decision to trade him for a second-round pick look shaky. The 29-year-old edge defender’s 12.5 sacks and five forced fumbles match the Bucs’ Shaq Barrett for the league lead. Jones has not missed a game in three Cardinals seasons and is well within reach of his second sack title in that span.

L.A. Chargers (4-7) at Denver (3-8), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Chargers numbers: Los Angeles has lost seven games by one score, tied for the second most in league history over a team's first 11 games of the season. The Chargers have lost the turnover battle 17-8 over their seven close losses.

Inside Chargers roster: Philip Rivers’ swoon has put the Bolts in a bad spot. They look likely to end up with a mid-first-round pick and do not possess any additional Day 1 or Day 2 choices that could be used as trade-up capital. Investing in Rivers’ age-38 season may still be where this goes for the Chargers, unless the Panthers make Cam Newton available. Moving on from Rivers for Andy Dalton (Bengals) or Teddy Bridgewater, if he’s even willing to leave his mid-career Saints internship, would be a bad look for a franchise that’s already in a weird place since leaving San Diego.

Inside Broncos numbers: Despite a weak offense  (27th in points per drive), Denver's defense has remained strong. The Broncos rank seventh in fewest points allowed per drive (1.71) and have allowed the second-lowest red-zone touchdown rate (40.6 percent). After a slow start, LB Von Miller ranks second in the league with 52 pressures since Week 3. 

Inside Broncos roster: In non-Drew Lock news, Denver must give Justin Simmons an eight-figure-per-year contract to keep him off the market. It will cost the team far more than it paid T.J. Ward or Darian Stewart to retain Simmons, who rates as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 safety. Simmons notched his third INT in Week 12 and is a Pro Bowl candidate. Although GM John Elway has let high-priced free agents walk in recent years – from Julius Thomas to Malik Jackson to Matt Paradis – it would behoove the GM to extend one of his 2016 draftees, given the hit his reputation has taken since Super Bowl 50.

Oakland (6-5) at Kansas City (7-4), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Raiders numbers: The Raiders are horrendous on the road, owning a league worst average point differential of -13.0. Their defense allows a league-high 32.2 points per game on the road. Oakland's pass defense is awful on the road, allowing the league's highest passer rating (120.2) and touchdown pass rate (8.4 percent) and recording the lowest sack rate (2.9 percent) and interception rate (0.6 percent). 

Inside Raiders roster: Hunter Renfrow played a big part in helping Oakland field a capable passing attack after the Antonio Brown debacle. If the slot receiver’s rib and lung issues do end his season, as Jon Gruden fears, the Raiders’ depth problem resurfaces. TE Darren Waller has shattered expectations, and nominal No. 1 wideout Tyrell Williams has played well given his post-Brown role change. Trade acquisitions Zay Jones and Trevor Davis need to step up; their contributions to date do not leave much room for optimism as the Raiders enter the biggest game of the second Gruden era.

Inside Chiefs numbers: Patrick Mahomes is on pace to post back-to-back seasons with over 300 passing yards per game and a passer rating of at least 110.0. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers have each accomplished that once, but nobody has done it twice.  

Inside Chiefs roster: GM Brett Veach signing Sammy Watkins for $16 million per year was viewed as an overpay in real time; it has gotten worse since the former top-five pick put on a Chiefs uniform. Watkins (55.6 YPG as a Chief) has not remotely justified his price and is on pace for another sub-1,000-yard season – which would be his fifth in six years. With the Chiefs saddled with an unreliable defense and run game, and residing in a conference with two superpowers, they need their high-priced target to produce. They are likely to cut Watkins in 2020, so this stretch will double as an audition for him.

New England (10-1) at Houston (7-5), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Patriots numbers: The defense has allowed 9.5 points per game since yielding 37 in Baltimore, and remains atop the league in points per drive (0.65), red-zone touchdown rate (40 percent), and third-down conversion rate (18.9 percent). New England has held its opponent to 14 points or less in 10 games, tied for the most in league history through a team's first 11 games of the season. The last team to do that was the 1977 Denver Broncos. 

Inside Patriots roster: A cornerback has won the Defensive Player of the Year award twice in the past 38 years – Deion Sanders in 1994 and Charles Woodson in 2009. Stephon Gilmore has a chance to join them; a strong nationally televised showing against DeAndre Hopkins could thrust him into the lead. In a Week 12 win over Dallas, Gilmore got his fourth interception and shut out Amari Cooper, the NFL’s fourth-leading receiver. The Patriots’ rare high-priced foray into free agency has made a massive impact.

Inside Texans numbers: Houston's defense must be significantly better in clutch situations, as it currently ranks 31st in third-down conversion rate allowed (47.1 percent) and 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (65.2 percent). The offense is unusually pedestrian in the clutch, ranking 17th on third down (37.3 percent) and 25th in the red zone (47.8 percent).

Inside Texans roster: J.J. Watt’s injury has accelerated Houston’s third-down struggles; the Texans’ pass rush has not been the same since the future Hall of Famer’s exit. Whitney Mercilus, the top Texan rush threat after the Jadeveon Clowney trade and Watt injury, produced 5.5 sacks with Watt in the lineup and zero in the four games since the injury. The Texans ranked 12th in QB hits with Watt; their work over the past month sits 32nd, per The Athletic. The Watt-Clowney-Mercilus trio was arguably the best position group in Texans history; it should be unsurprising Houston hasn’t recovered.

MONDAY

Minnesota (8-3) at Seattle (9-2), 8:15 p.m. ET

Inside Vikings numbers: Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with a 114.8 passer rating, and has tossed just one interception since Week 3. He has developed a tremendous connection with WR Stefon Diggs, who leads the NFL in touchdown receptions of more than 20 yards (5).

Inside Vikings roster: A question mark after a down 2018 season, Everson Griffen has thrived in his 10th NFL campaign. After taking an offseason pay cut, the veteran defensive end ranks top five in QB hits and pressures. The soon-to-be 32-year-old pass rusher has re-established his value to some degree while fortifying Minnesota’s top-tier edge-rushing tandem as Danielle Hunter’s overqualified sidekick. Griffen is on the way to hitting incentives that would allow him to void the rest of his through-2022 contract, which contains no more guaranteed money.

Inside Seahawks numbers: Seattle's defense has a bend-but-don't-break style. The Seahawks have struggled to keep teams from moving the ball, placing 20th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (6.4) and 22nd in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.5). However, they have made up for that by ranking third in takeaway rate (17.7 percent), ninth on third down (35.2 percent), and 11th in the red zone (54.1 percent).

Inside Seahawks roster: RB Chris Carson has fumbled seven times – three more than any non-quarterback. Rashaad Penny averages 5.9 yards per carry and is coming off a 129-yard relief effort against the Eagles in Week 12; the Seahawks should give their 2018 first-round pick a bigger share of their ground game. While Carson has played well over the past two years, rushing for 2,030 yards in the past 25 games, it is a bit strange how much leeway Seattle’s staff has given a 2017 seventh-round pick.