Week 13 NFL mismatches: Why Mahomes, Jackson may sizzle on Sunday

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson vs. 49ers run defense

Why 49ers are overmatched: San Francisco boasts a historically great pass defense, but its run defense is average. The 49ers are 16th in rush defense DVOA, 16th in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.3), and 23rd in rush defense EPA. In each of their past five games, the 49ers had few answers against teams ranked in the top half of rush offense DVOA. San Francisco yielded more rushing yards than the league average (111.5) in each game, and allowed an average of 5.3 yards per rush attempt (league average 4.3). Opponents averaged 18.4 points across those games, nearly double the 9.5 points per game San Francisco allowed over its first six games.

The 49ers have two major issues in run defense: quarterbacks and big plays. Coordinator Robert Saleh's defense has allowed the fifth-most yards per rush attempt (5.8) and ninth-most rushing yards per game (17.9) to quarterbacks, as Kyler Murray (Cardinals) and Russell Wilson (Seahawks) have given the Niners problems recently. San Francisco has also allowed nine runs of 20-plus yards, tied for fourth most in the league. Murray is responsible for three of those. Baltimore might have a quarterback capable of exploiting these weaknesses.

Why Ravens will dominate: The Ravens, who will face the 49ers at home, run more effectively than any team ever has. In a pass-first era, they are on track to set Super Bowl-era records for yards per rush attempt (5.7) and rushing yards per game (210.5). Jackson is at the center of that success, ranking ninth among all players in rushing yards (876). He is on pace to smash Michael Vick's quarterback rush yardage record (1,039 yards in 2006) by more than 200 yards.

In Week 12 against the Rams, the best run defense the Ravens have faced this season, Baltimore rushed for a season-best 285 yards. That's the fifth-best mark in franchise history and Baltimore's second best on the road.  Jackson ran for 95 yards on a season-best 11.9 yards per attempt. If Aaron Donald and the elite Rams run defense couldn't stop Jackson, can anybody?

Fantasy impact: Jackson is the top quarterback in standard scoring (27.9 points per game) and just about any other format out there. San Francisco's defense is not quite as good as the New England D, which Jackson shredded for 28.6 points in Week 8.

How Jackson does it: No play better exemplifies Jackson's elusiveness than this 47-yard touchdown run against the Bengals. The moves he puts on display here are Madden-esque. There might not be a skill position player in the NFL capable of pulling this off, let alone a quarterback.

Vikings pass rush vs. Seahawks offensive line

Why Seahawks are overmatched: MVP candidate Russell Wilson has been pressured on 41.4 percent of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Wilson has been knocked down 6.5 times per game, seventh most in the league. Pro Football Focus ranks the Seahawks 31st in pass blocking, ahead of only the Dolphins.

The top issue on the line is right tackle, where Germain Ifedi leads all tackles with 41 pressures allowed. Tight end and running back are also problematic. Despite missing five games, Jacob Hollister is tied for third among tight ends in pressures allowed (5). Chris Carson is tied for second among running backs in pressures allowed (9).

Why Vikings will dominate: Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen form the most terrifying duo of edge rushers in the NFL. Hunter leads the league in pressures from the left side (69), Griffen leads from the right (58). Both are also strong against the run. Griffen is tied for sixth among edge defenders in run stops (plays that constitute negative value for the offense) with 17; Hunter is tied for 17th at the position (14).

In Week 14 last season against the Vikings, the last time he played against Minnesota, Wilson posted career-lows in passing yards (72), yards per attempt (3.6), and passer rating (37.9) despite playing at home.

Fantasy impact: Wilson is on a minor cold stretch, with one touchdown pass and an average of 216 passing yards in his past two games. Both games were on the road against top-seven DVOA defenses (San Francisco and Philadelphia). The Vikings, whom Seattle faces at home on Monday night, rank 10th in total defense DVOA and 16th against the pass.

Home-field advantage will be key for Wilson, despite what happened in 2018. Minnesota has allowed a 105.0 passer rating, 8.2 yards per attempt, and eight touchdown passes over its past three road games. Wilson has averaged 28.3 fantasy points at home versus 18.2 on the road. Hunter and Griffen will likely dominate, but Wilson is an MVP front-runner because he has succeeded despite heavy pressure. 

How Hunter and Griffen do it: The following sack by Hunter against the Giants showcases two major problems the Seahawks will have. First, they will have to block the man who leads the league in pressures from the left with a right tackle who has given up the most pressures on that side. Second, they will need to help Ifedi out and  handle Minnesota's blitzes with skill-position players who have blocked poorly.

The Vikings pick up a crucial fourth-down sack on this play, putting pressure on the running back to execute an important block. Anthony Barr (#54) blitzes the B-gap and draws a one-on-one against Elijah Penny (#39). Barr easily clears him, forcing Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones to scramble right. Hunter (#99) is waiting for him there, having already walked Mike Remmers (#74) into the pocket.

Seattle's Carson and Ifedi, who are among the worst pass protectors at their respective positions, will be in those spots. This matchup looks bleak for Seattle.