Week 5 AFC East predictions: Patriots' struggles continue

The AFC East went 1-3 in Week 4, with the Buffalo Bills taking the division lead while the New York Jets earned the only loss worth being proud of. Here are predictions for Week 5’s slate: 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-1): Coming off a convincing 48-20 win over the previously undefeated Dolphins, Buffalo heads to London to take on the Jaguars. Unlike the Bills, Jacksonville won't have to deal with jet lag as it is staying in London this week after beating Atlanta 23-7 at Wembley Stadium.

Josh Allen and the Bills are on a roll, averaging 40 points over their last three games, with the star quarterback posting 882 yards of total offense and 10 touchdowns during that span. While everything is clicking, it's worth noting that they're going against their toughest test yet. The Jaguars defense, led by their own Josh Allen, has allowed the fewest total yards (1,332) and forced the most turnovers (nine) than any unit Buffalo has faced this season. 

Even so, Jacksonville's offense has been inconsistent to start 2023, and it's difficult to imagine it putting up many points on the Bills defense, as Buffalo has recorded a league-high 11 takeaways and 16 sacks this season. With All-Pro OLB Von Miller hinting that he could make his season debut, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence may not have enough time in the pocket to be effective and lead Jacksonville to a win.

PREDICTION: Bills, 28-24

New York Giants (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-1): The loss to Buffalo was a gut-check for Miami, but there might not be a better opportunity to turn things around, especially for the defense, than facing a Giants team that surrendered 11 sacks in their last game. 

After being held to 58 and 46 yards, respectively, last week, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are poised to rebound as they're slated to face two rookie cornerbacks. Additionally, veteran Raheem Mostert and third-round pick De'Von Achane will continue their success on the ground, seeing as the Giants defense has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards this season (535). 

New York's offense should get a much-needed boost with Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley likely to play after missing the last two games with a high ankle sprain. Nevertheless, it's uncertain whether he will make much of an impact, considering he probably won't be at full strength and is running behind a terrible offensive line. 

As their season hangs in the balance, expect the Giants to come out with urgency but ultimately fail to keep pace with Miami's explosive offense. 

PREDICTION: Dolphins, 35-17

New Orleans Saints (2-2) at New England Patriots (1-3): It's time for the Patriots to panic in the wake of their 38-3 loss to Dallas, the largest margin of defeat for Bill Belichick in his career as an NFL head coach. The addition of OC Bill O'Brien hasn't panned out so far, with New England averaging the third-fewest points per game (13.8), and it's unlikely the situation will improve against the Saints, whose defense is allowing 19 points per game. 

Despite Saints quarterback Derek Carr's shoulder injury, New England's defense will likely have trouble against New Orleans' skill-position players now that LB Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez are out indefinitely. Judon led the Patriots with four sacks this season, while Gonzalez's one interception represents one of just two turnovers the defense has forced.

It may not be a great offensive display, but New Orleans should be able to get the job done and extend New England's home losing streak. 

PREDICTION: Saints, 20-14

New York Jets (1-3) at Denver Broncos (1-3): Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett returns to Denver for the first time since being fired as the Broncos head coach last season with a 4-11 record. Although the hype surrounding this matchup has subsided since Sean Payton ripped Hackett for what "might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” in July, it's a must-win game for each team. 

The Broncos bounced back from their 70-20 loss to Miami, edging out the Bears 31-28 in Week 4, but allowed Chicago's Justin Fields to rack up 335 passing yards and four touchdowns, which are career highs. If quarterback Zach Wilson plays anything like he did in last week's 23-20 loss to Kansas City, where he threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns, New York should win handily.

However, if Wilson struggles, the Jets should still have confidence as long as they lean on running back Breece Hall, who is officially off a snap count. Denver has allowed 176 rushing yards per game and seven touchdowns, both of which are the most among defenses this season.

PREDICTION: Jets, 24-20