2024 Stanley Cup futures, odds and picks: Best bets for NHL’s second half

2024 Stanley Cup Futures Odds and Picks

Dallas Stars (+1300)

By Nicholas Martin

The Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks' surprisingly dominant first halves have hogged a lot of attention out West. The Edmonton Oilers' unbelievable turnaround has also garnered lots of attention. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and company dragging a middling Avalanche roster to a mark of 32-14-3 is another compelling angle.

What seems to be lost in the shuffle is that a Dallas Stars roster that already took the Cup champion Golden Knights to six games in the Western Final last season could be considerably improved this time around.

Dallas is 30-13-6 while receiving a team save % of only .897. A midseason injury to starter Jake Oettinger led to lesser play from an overworked Scott Wedgewood. Considering the elite potential of Oettinger, it should be a scary thought for the rest of the league that the Stars have been this good with below-average play in goal.

The Stars' 3.69 goals-for-per-game average ranks third in the league, and based on the current roster construction, that strength is no fluke.

An elite top-line center is arguably the most consistent theme of all Cup-winning teams, and Roope Hintz continues to prove he is exactly that with his elite two-way play down the middle. Dallas' newly formed trio of Hintz, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston have played to an 84.1% expected goals rating in 80.1 minutes together at even strength.

That unit might not exactly be a 1-1 match for what Central division rival Avalanche can offer in terms of all-world talent, but the Stars make up for that with more depth throughout the roster.

GM Jim Nill's signing of Matt Duchene to a one-year, $3-million-dollar contract is proving to be one of the best deals of the summer. Duchene has led one of the most effective second lines in hockey with 45 points in 48 games. A third line of Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn and Sam Steel offers significant scoring upside as well.

The more coach Pete DeBoer trusts Thomas Harley, the more Harley continues to excel. His ability to thrive in a heightened role on the blue line is a significant reason this year's team could get over the hump after consistently knocking at the door, going back to their NHL Cup Final loss in the 2020 bubble. Since Miro Heiskanen's return from injury, the two have formed a top pairing that owns a 70.9% expected goals share in 136.9 minutes together.

GM Nill can bolster his roster in several different ways ahead of the trade deadline. Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque lead the AHL in scoring, and they could realistically be useful NHL players this season if presented with an opportunity to play in the top nine. There may not be a rental on the trade market worthy of either of those two in a trade, but with that pair lying in wait, Nill should feel confident he can be aggressive with his other assets as desired.

More than many other top Western sides, I believe the best is yet to come for the 2023-24 Dallas Stars. They entered the All-Star break on an 8-2-1 tear, and they are well-situated to build upon that strong play in the coming weeks with Oettinger and Heiskanen healthy.

The Oilers are a worthy favorite out West, but I think we will see the Stars' number continue to shorten over the next month. There is value betting them to win the Cup at +1300, and I also like a smaller bet on them to win the Presidents' Trophy (most points/best overall record) at +1200.

The Picks: Dallas Stars to win Stanley Cup (+1300 at Caesars, DraftKings or BetMGM) | Stars to win Presidents' Trophy (+1200 at DraftKings)

Vancouver Canucks (+1400)

By Ryan Dadoun

Before the 2022-23 campaign, I listed Vancouver as my preferred long-shot bet to win the Stanley Cup. At the time, I felt the Canucks possessed the right components to be a major contender but had not yet been able to consistently put everything together. While they went on to have a rough season, they’ve shown this campaign what that core is capable of.

The big difference has been the goaltender. Thatcher Demko was burdened by injury last year and struggled mightily even when he was able to play. By contrast, he’s been one of the league’s top netminders this season with a 26-8-1 record, 2.44 GAA and .920 save percentage in 35 starts.

Vancouver already had a great offense last campaign, and it’s gotten even better in 2023-24, thanks in part to defenseman Quinn Hughes somehow finding an even higher level, providing 12 goals and 62 points through 49 games.

The result is that Vancouver ranks second in both offense (3.80 goals per game) and defense (2.55 goals allowed per contest). With that kind of dominance, it’s no surprise that the Canucks will exit the All-Star break leading the Western Conference with a 33-11-5 record.

Adding Elias Lindholm in a trade with Calgary on Wednesday should serve to make them even better. Lindholm can help the team at both sides of the ice while providing them with some extra offensive depth – an area they arguably lacked as their only forward before the trade with at least 25 points were J.T Miller (67 points), Elias Pettersson (64) and Brock Boeser (52).

Lindholm should also help Vancouver on the penalty kill, which is one of the rare areas the Canucks have been mediocre, ranking 15th with an 80.0 percent success rate.

It is fair to wonder how this team will perform in the playoffs as much of the core is light on postseason experience. The last time Vancouver reached the playoffs was in 2020, and that was in the weird COVID lockdown scenario in which the games were confined to two hub cities, the teams confined to a “bubble” and no fans in the stands.

It’s fair to say that what the Canucks will experience in this year’s postseason will be substitutionally different, and if Vancouver is going to make more additions before the deadline, acquiring complementary veterans might be wise. Either way, the talent here should have the capacity to overcome the challenges they’ll face.

The Pick: Vancouver Canucks (+1400 at FanDuel)

Vegas Golden Knights (+1500)

By Carol Schram

It’s time to change our thinking from "It’s virtually impossible to repeat as a Cup champion" to "Hey, we’ve had two repeat champions in the last eight years."

And while the Vegas Golden Knights defied tradition by hoisting the Stanley Cup in just their sixth year of existence, they did it with a well-balanced roster, a big, tough blue line, and better-than-expected goaltending.

Despite an epic summer celebration, Vegas showed no signs of a Cup hangover until they were bitten by the injury bug. And even with those absences, the Golden Knights have stayed competitive and remain virtually unbeatable on home ice.

In net, Adin Hill is now back after nearly two months on the sidelines and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. Jack Eichel is expected to be recovered from his knee surgery before playoffs begin, and he should be fresh.

Shea Theodore, the Golden Knights’ top offensive defenseman, is the biggest question mark. He has been listed as week-to-week since undergoing upper-body surgery in late November and has been sorely missed, but he could be back by mid-February.

With Vancouver, Edmonton, Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg all having strong seasons, the Western Conference playoffs are going to be a dogfight. If they can repeat their good fortune from last year and get healthy at the right time, Vegas’s experience could be the difference-maker.

The good news for bettors is that all that competition means the defending champs offer solid futures value at +1500 at ESPN BET. (You can also find +1400 odds at FanDuel).

The Pick: Vegas Golden Knights (+1500 at ESPN BET)

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Winnipeg Jets (+1500)

By Greg Liodice

I’m sure many are surprised to see how far the Winnipeg Jets have come. From a broken locker room to coach Rick Bowness ripping them a new one at the end of last season (which caught a lot of players off guard), the Jets are now a force in the Western Conference.

Currently, the team is going through some injuries, but the return of Kyle Connor helps majorly. Also of note, Winnipeg just traded for center Sean Monahan to bolster up the second line.

There’s a lot of depth on this roster. It can roll four lines on any given night, the defensive core is as solid as ever, and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is playing at Vezina-like levels.

Diving into the numbers, there’s no wonder why this team has been so successful. While special teams can use some reworking, the Jets are a top-10 team in both 5-on-5 offense and defense. Hellebuyck has also played to a league-leading 22.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) while backup Laurent Brossoit has a 5.1 GSAx.

Winnipeg is currently slated at +1500 to win the Stanley Cup, which is the 11th-best odds, which makes sense. Even though they’re 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, the Jets are going through some mid-season blues. They also have the 15th easiest remaining schedule, so I don’t see a problem in making the playoffs.

It’ll be a challenge to get through some Central Division powerhouses in Colorado and Dallas, but anything can happen in the NHL playoffs. I really like the Jets at +1500 and having the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993.

The Pick: Winnipeg Jets (+1500 at FanDuel or BetMGM)

Pittsburgh Penguins (+4500)

By Grant White

Parity reigns supreme across the NHL these days. We see it on the ice on a nightly basis, in the standings, and on the Stanley Cup futures board.

One team that you shouldn't look past, though, is the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Pens are clinging to the Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin-Kris Letang dynasty, and rightfully so. They remain one of the top analytics teams in the league. Coupled with a new GM who won't shy away from making moves, the Penguins are primed to make one last run at Lord Stanley's mug.

Crosby and company continue to churn out league-best metrics. They rank seventh in the NHL in expected goals-for rating, posting a 52.6% mark through the unofficial halfway point of the season; however, they look even more impressive when factoring in their special team analytics. Across all strengths, their rating jumps to 54.1%, fourth-best in the NHL.

Pittsburgh still possesses a winning pedigree. I'm expecting them to flourish in the second half, adding a few key pieces before the trade deadline.

That should push them over the edge and up the futures board, making them my preferred Stanley Cup futures play at +4500 odds, via bet365.

The Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins (+4500 at Bet365)