Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Edmonton Oilers: 2^nd Pacific Division, 104 points

Los Angeles Kings: 3^rd Pacific Division, 99 points

Schedule (ET)

Monday, May 2, 10 p.m.: Los Angeles at Edmonton (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, ESPN2)
Wednesday, May 4, 10 p.m.: Los Angeles at Edmonton (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, ESPN2)
Friday, May 6, 10 p.m.: Edmonton at Los Angeles (TBS, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 8, 10 p.m.: Edmonton at Los Angeles (TBS, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Tuesday, May 10, TBD: Los Angeles at Edmonton (TBD)
*Thursday, May 12, TBD: Edmonton at Los Angeles (TBD)
*Saturday, May 14, TBD: Los Angeles at Edmonton (TBD)

The Skinny

One team, the Edmonton Oilers, fired their coach mid-season, caught fire under rookie head coach Jay Woodcroft and will hit the playoffs trying to shake off years of underachievement and the feeling they have been wasting generational talents Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The other team, the Los Angeles Kings, are led by a former Oiler coach in Todd McLellan and have refused to quit in spite of a vast array of injuries to key personnel throughout the season. The Kings are looking for their first playoff series win since their Stanley Cup vicotry in 2014 thanks to the emergence of a core of talented young players and key off-season additions Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson and Alex Edler, while the Oilers are looking for just their second series victory in the McDavid/Draisaitl era.

Head to Head

Edmonton  3-1-0

Los Angeles 1-2-1

Nevermind the wins and losses, as the two teams sawed each other off, scoring 12 times apiece in the season series. The Oilers managed not to score a power-play goal against the Kings during the regular season.

Top Five Scorers

Edmonton

Connor McDavid: 123 points

Leon Draisaitl: 110 points

Zach Hyman: 54 points

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 50 points

Evan Bouchard: 43 points

Los Angeles

Anze Kopitar: 67 points

Adrian Kempe: 54 points

Phillip Danault: 51 points

Viktor Arvidsson: 49 points

Trevor Moore: 48 points

X-Factor

On paper this is a decided mismatch. The Oilers of course boast two of the greatest players of this generation in four-time scoring champion McDavid and former scoring champ Draisaitl and the team has been red-hot under Woodcroft, going 19-4-2 through the last quarter-plus of the season. The Kings are still led by captain Anze Kopitar and former captain Dustin Brown, who will retire at the end of this playoff run, although Drew Doughty won’t be around thanks to a season-ending injury. The Kings have been decimated throughout the season by injury, so learning to win with a “next man up” mentality is part of their DNA. It’s a classic David and Goliath, but the pressure is always on Goliath and history has shown this Edmonton team to be ill-equipped to deal with these kinds of stakes as it has won just one playoff round since McDavid’s arrival. They were swept by Winnipeg a year ago and the year before that were shocked by lowly Chicago in the play-in round. The Kings, ahead of their rebuild curve, are playing with house money, and sometimes that’s enough to tilt the scales even though it might not look possible on paper.

Offense

This is the key part of the matchup. Can Los Angeles slow down an Oiler offense that is really clicking under Woodcroft and/or can the Kings keep pace with their own offense? Evander Kane has blossomed since Woodcroft took over and has provided an imposing presence on the left side of McDavid’s line, finishing the season with 22 goals and 39 points in 43 games. The Oilers are seventh in the league in goals per game since the March 21 trade deadline, while the Kings are a pedestrian 18^th. The Oiler power play is fifth during that time period while the Kings are 20^th. While the offense clearly runs through the two future Hall of Famers, Draisaitl and McDavid, the Oilers have been better at generating offense from lower in the lineup this season and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has worked his way through injuries to chip in 50 points in 63 games while Zach Hyman more than earned his keep after signing a whopper seven-year deal with the Oil in the off-season, chipping in a career-high 27 goals. For the Kings to stay close, they are going to have to continue to get scoring from up and down the lineup as they have all season. We spoke with a scout recently who raved about Trevor Moore a late bloomer who has clicked playing most of the last half of the season with Danault and Arvidsson, whom head coach McLellan described as ‘trust in’ players as they knew they could rely on them to be consistently good players night in and night out. (McLellan also included veteran defenseman Edler in that group when we spoke last month.)

Defense

Both teams have been difficult to play against during the last half of the season, and even though the Kings won’t have Doughty, they have learned to get along without the future Hall of Famer for a large chunk of the season, so his absence isn’t really a factor. The Oiler defense, though, has shown dramatic signs of improvement since the coaching change – they’re sixth in goals allowed per game since late March – and their penalty kill has been dynamite down the stretch too, third in the league. So, at best for the Kings, who are 10^th in goals allowed since the deadline, this is a wash if not a slight advantage for the Oilers, who added a nice complementary D-man in Brett Kulak from Montreal at the trade deadline.

Goaltending

This will be a fascinating battle of the greybeards, pitting two-time Cup winner and one-time playoff MVP Jonathan Quick, 36, against the ageless warrior Mike Smith, who turned 40 just after the trade deadline. Quick has seen his game come around – he was one of the weekly stars leading up to the final week of the regular season – but there have also been a few hiccups along the way. Had Cal Petersen been more consistent – he finished with an .895 save percentage compared to Quick’s .910 mark – it might be a different story in goal for the Kings. But Smith has been nothing short of incredible through the last quarter of the season and hits the post-season riding a nine-game personal winning streak with two shutouts mixed in for good measure. If that’s the Smith the Oilers get starting this week, then Quick is going to have to be vintage Quick or the Kings are in trouble. If there is a red flag, it’s the fact Smith has struggled with his durability and Mikko Koskinen does not generate much confidence as a Plan B.

Injuries

The Kings have been like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail: hacked to bits but still fighting. But all the pieces that are going to be available to them are now back in good health. Defenseman Mikey Anderson was the last to return to action, and he played in the Kings’ final two regular season games. Doughty won’t be back and neither will Sean Walker, so the kids that got them here, along with Edler, will be the kids to carry them forward. The Oilers were without minute-machine Darnell Nurse on the back end with a lower-body (ie. leg) injury and there remains some concern he might not be ready to start the series, which would be a huge loss for the Oilers and something the Kings would be wise to try and exploit vis a vis putting pressure on the Oiler defense corps. Jesse Puljujarvi missed some time with illness but was back in the lineup at the end of the regular season.

Intangibles

With all due respect to the Kings, who are one of the surprises of the season this might be one of the most lopsided of the eight opening-round NHL series in Edmonton’s favor. On paper, of course. So, surely this is the year that the Oilers get out of their own way and start to take advantage of their treasure trove of world class talent. Isn’t it? Given the Oilers’ past playoff foibles, it behooves the Kings to rile up the Oilers early in the series in the hopes of getting in their collective kitchens. We know it won’t take much to plunge Oilers nation into panic, which means the opening games are critical if the Kings are going to keep their David-like season on track and topple the Oiler Goliath. Still, there is something about this Oiler team and the adversity they have faced seemingly making them better prepared for the rigors of playoff life.

CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION

The Kings have the experience and resiliency to put a scare in the Oilers and steal a game or two. But the talent discrepancy is pretty wide here. It will win out. Oilers in 6