Five NHL goalies primed to rebound in 2023-24

The goaltending carousel nearly spun off its axis this offseason as NHL teams jockeyed to improve in the crease. Signings were made. Trades occurred. Reclamation projects were undertaken, and several big-name netminders – think Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson – are still available on the trade market.

No doubt some of the teams that made changes will reap the benefits, but I also think there’s a handful of teams expecting improvement to come in-house. With that in mind, I’ve got five NHL goaltenders primed for a bounce back 2023-24 season.

Thatcher Demko

I still can’t believe Demko managed to post a save percentage above .900 during the 2022-23 campaign. Vancouver was abysmal defensively for the majority of the year, and Demko battled through injury. But toward the end of the season, under new head coach Rick Tocchet, Demko’s fortunes started to change. He ultimately finished with a .903 SV%.

For me, Demko’s technical ability and measured approach to goaltending make him one of the league’s most consistent performers, but he needs structure in front of him to show it. I think that’ll happen this year with Tocchet in charge.

Demko was 58th in moneypuck.com’s goals saved above expected rankings last year, but in the previous two seasons, he was well inside the top 20. With a better team surrounding him, and the confidence that comes with it, I think Demko should be near the top once again.

Philipp Grubauer

Here’s the thing with Grubauer: His traditional numbers from the 2022-23 season are somewhat misleading. The 31-year-old from Germany posted a less-than-stellar .895 save percentage, but his advanced metrics are better. Grubauer was 34th in goals saved above expected, one spot behind Golden Knights All-Star netminder Logan Thompson.

Grubauer can be over-aggressive at times, which leads to problems getting his feet set, but I think he made strides last season, just like the Kraken as a whole. It’s not easy to walk into a new setting – much less an expansion team – and crush it in the first year. Yet that’s what Grubauer was tasked with in 2020-21.

Last season, once the calendar turned over to 2023, Grubauer started to play better, and I liked his performance during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Grubauer produced a .903 save percentage in 14 games. Most telling, his goals saved above expected was 2.7 – the first time Grubauer has posted a positive rating since his last season with the Colorado Avalanche in 2020-21. As Seattle continues to improve as a team, so will Grubauer.

Kaapo Kahkonen

Let’s face it: The San Jose Sharks won’t be good next year. Kahkonen will have his hands full playing behind a depleted lineup, but I think his second full campaign in teal should be better than his first.

Why? Toward the end of the 2022-23 season, Kahkonen began to overhaul his game. Goaltending coach Thomas Speer implemented several key changes aimed at keeping Kahkonen in control and square to the shooter, which I think will pay dividends.

The key element is that Kahkonen was aware of his shortcomings and willing to make changes. I saw it toward the end of the 2022-23 season when Kahkonen started to play deeper in the net, with a more upright stance. It didn’t show up in his numbers – a lowly .883 save percentage and 3.85 goals against average – but Kahkonen did show progress.

The Finnish netminder has loads of natural talent. He just needs to streamline it. I like his attitude. Speer has a strong track record, working previously with Dustin Wolf – the AHL’s top goaltender for two consecutive seasons – in the Calgary Flames organization. If he can replicate that work with Kahkonen, I expect to see improvement.

Jacob Markstrom

The perception is that Calgary’s goaltending has gone from the team’s strength to its Achilles heel, and while the numbers aren’t in Markstrom’s favor, I think that assertion is a step too far. Yes, the 6-foot-6 puckstopper from Sweden had a down year. His save percentage dropped from a .922 during the 2021-22 season to an .892 last year.

But here’s why I think he’s due to bounce back: Since Markstrom became a full-time NHL goaltender in 2015-16, it was the first time his save percentage dropped below the 90 percent threshold, and while Markstrom has had a few mild seasons previously, he’s always rebounded.

It’s not just a confidence thing with Markstrom. I think teams have figured out his tendency to get low and wide in tight, which hampers his lateral mobility. The good news is that the Flames are aware of the changes that need to be made. Markstrom is, too.

The big Swedish netminder has reinvented himself a few times during his career, and his work ethic is outstanding. I think he’ll make technical changes, but more than anything, I think Markstrom needs to find a way to relax. I think he puts so much pressure on himself that it can stifle performance. There’s a happy medium, and I think the long offseason will be good for the Flames netminder.

Alex Nedeljkovic

Nedeljkovic is the lone goaltender on my list to switch teams, and he’s also the biggest long shot for a rebound season. Pittsburgh is loaded up with four goaltenders – Tristan Jarry, Casey DeSmith, Magnus Hellberg and Nedeljkovic – earning money on one-way NHL contracts, and Jarry was just signed to a five-year, $26.875 million deal.

I think the key with Nedeljkovic is that, among the goalies behind Jarry, he’s got the highest ceiling. He was lights out with the Carolina Hurricanes during the 2020-21 season, posting a .932 save percentage in 23 appearances, but his game fell off the past two seasons behind a porous Detroit Red Wings defense.

I’m a believer in Nedeljkovic. Much like Jarry, he skates well, and he’s an excellent puck handler. The two are very similar, but Nedeljkovic is going to need a big training camp to nail down a roster spot in Pittsburgh. If he does, I think the Ohio-born puckstopper could surprise.