Free-agent profile: Nick Ritchie

This belief has played a big role in free agent winger Nick Ritchie’s career. It helped make him the tenth overall pick back in 2014 by Anaheim. It played a role in Boston trading for him in 2020. It played a role in Toronto giving Ritchie a 25% raise on what his qualifying offer would have been after the Bruins non-tendered him. Some player types are ones that teams are more willing to take a flyer on and Ritchie is one of those.

That makes it a little interesting that the 27-year-old remains unsigned as we’ve reached the four-week mark of free agency. While his game-to-game performances can be inconsistent, he’s a safe bet to reach the double-digit mark for goals and assists (as long as he stays healthy) while he’s averaging over 2.8 hits per game over the last two seasons. 

He has only surpassed 30 points once and his benchmark for goals is 15 so the ceiling is fairly low but the floor is still decent. Generally speaking, those players have some value despite Ritchie having a career profile that has been a bit underwhelming relative to his draft stock.

Sure, he might not be the prototypical fourth line grinder despite what a passing glance at the numbers might suggest but Ritchie nevertheless remains one of the more intriguing forwards still available on the open market.

Stats

2022-23: 74 GP, 13-13-26, -21 rating, 53 PIMS, 120 shots, 218 hits, 47.1% CF, 13:33 ATOI
Career: 481 GP, 84-102-186, -29 rating, 483 PIMS, 834 shots, 1,259 hits, 50.3% CF, 13:38 ATOI

Potential suitors

There are two types of teams that stand out as possible fits for Ritchie. 

The first is a rebuilding team that wants to add a bit of grit to their bottom six and perhaps have a late-season trade asset on their hands. The other is a playoff-bound squad that would rather get a full season out of Ritchie over flipping a draft pick or prospect to get him as a rental at the deadline.

In the East, Detroit still has ample cap space to work with and they have made several changes up front already. If they want some of their prospects to have more development time in Grand Rapids, Ritchie could fit on their fourth line. Buffalo has a short-term opening with Jack Quinn set to miss the first couple of months at least and GM Kevyn Adams’ moves in recent months have been made with an eye on making the team bigger and more physical. Philadelphia added some grit already this summer in Garnet Hathaway and could look to bring in Ritchie as a younger, cheaper version while also allowing for a prospect to spend a bit more time in the minors.

Out West, Edmonton will be looking for some upgraded depth on the fourth line but Ritchie would only fit if he’s open to signing for the league minimum as the Oilers don’t project to have much, if any, cap space at their disposal once they re-sign their restricted free agents. 

San Jose fits from the standpoint of being a fit for Ritchie to play a bigger role than perhaps just a fourth line one which could give him a bit of value closer to the deadline when playoff teams are looking to add some grit. Colorado has reshaped its bottom six group this summer after it struggled last season but Ritchie would be a further upgrade while they still have some LTIR room from Gabriel Landeskog at their disposal.

Projected contract

If Ritchie is looking to land with a playoff-caliber team, most of those are limited to contracts that are basically at or around the league minimum. But if he’s open to being in a similar situation as he was last season with Arizona, there are a few teams out there that could give him a deal in the $1M range with an eye on flipping him (perhaps with retention) at the deadline. 

It’s a matter of when, not if, Ritchie signs somewhere but regardless of where he goes, he’ll be facing a significant pay cut.