Friday NHL bets: Let's head to the weekend with some wins

It appears Tristan Jarry is making his return tonight after getting hurt in a Jan. 2 game against Boston. Jarry's season stats are solid on the year —  2.75 GAA, .918 SV% — but he wasn't too dominant in his past few appearances. Ignoring the game in which he got hurt in the first period, Jarry's past three starts have yielded 12 goals, with a save percentage of .889 or worse in all three. 

As of this writing, it appears Anton Forsberg will be in goal for Ottawa, but we have yet to get confirmation there. I'm open to either Forsberg or Cam Talbot getting the nod. Forsberg has allowed 3.25 goals per game this season and has seen 13 goals against him in his past three appearances. Talbot was in net against the Penguins on Wednesday and let in four goals on just 19 shots.

The true takeaway from Wednesday's meeting may be the sheer amount of penalties. Pittsburgh had nine and Ottawa committed five. The Penguins went 2-5 on the power play and the Senators went 4-9. While we should not expect that same volume, Pittsburgh has been one of the most heavily-penalized teams this season and their penalty kill has been a problem. I like Ottawa to find themselves another PP goal here.

Thoughts

• Goals to be scored
• Ottawa to lead the way with shots

Plays

Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 SOG (+110 DK)
DeBrincat has gone over this number in four of his last five, including last game against the Penguins in which he finished with four SOG. On the road, DeBrincat has been even steadier, notching 4+ shots in six of his past eight games. I like how steady DeBrincat's volume has been, averaging 6.2 attempts per game over his last five games (6.6 in his last five on the road). In his last two games against the Penguins, DeBrincat has 12 shots on goal.
 
Josh Norris point (-108 FD) 
Norris made his return last game, and it was nice to see him immediately get involved, getting off five attempts. As I've said before, I'm a sucker for an impact player in his second game back from injury. Norris got the rust off and I find these odds to be just tremendous in a game I like goals to be scored. In two meetings with the Penguins last year, Norris logged three points. 

Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks

The Avalanche are rolling. They've won three straight games, scoring 17 goals in the process. I certainly expect that success to continue here against Vancouver.

The Canucks have allowed 4.1 goals per game in their last 10 at home and have seen four or more goals scored against them in five of their last six games overall.

I know that Colorado just lost to Vancouver 4-2 at the beginning of January, but they're clearly playing better now, and the return of Valeri Nichushkin should not be understated. I like the Avs to keep on scoring here; it doesn't matter who is in net for Vancouver.

On the other end, I think the Canucks should at least be able to chip in some shots. Colorado has allowed 34.4 shots per game on the road in the past 10 games, and a few players in particular have been so steady shooting the puck for Vancouver.

Thoughts

• Colorado wins and scores 4+ goals
• Vancouver to log 32-25 shots on goal

Plays

.5u: Mikko Rantanen goal (+105 CZR) 
Rantanen loves facing Vancouver, scoring seven goals in his past six games against them. He's fresh off a two-goal effort and has scored a goal in seven of his past 10 on the road. In two games against the Canucks this year, Rantanen has 13 SOG, which has certainly helped translate to goals.
 
.5u: Valeri Nichushkin goal (+185 CZR) 
I've been on Nichushkin's shots since he returned from injury and has yet to disappoint me through two games. Val has nine SOG on 13 attempts, but hasn't yet buried a goal. In fact, Nichushkin hasn't scored in 10 games, and I'm sorry but that's just too long of a stretch to go without scoring. His shots are becoming a bit too juiced at -165, so I'm opting for the goal in a game I think the Avs find plenty.

JT Miller over 2.5 SOG (-117 CZR) 
Miller has 4+ SOG in four straight games and has gone over 2.5 shots in six straight at home. The attempts look like a staircase, with 5-6-7-9 in his past four games. He's hit this number in both meetings with the Avalanche this season.
 
Elias Pettersson over 3.5 SOG (+115 DK) 
Pettersson is letting them rip lately, averaging 9.0 attempts per game over his last five, with five games of double-digit attempts over his past seven. He has covered 3.5 SOG in all five of those games in which he hit 10+ attempts, and interestingly, he has at least six shots each time. That would include a January 5 meeting with Colorado in which he logged seven SOG. This is the type of volume I can't pass up on.