Grading the Ivan Provorov three-team trade

With the NHL Draft a little more than three weeks away and free agency kicking off in less than a month, GMs of the 30 teams not currently alive in the Stanley Cup playoffs weren’t going to politely wait around for the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers to finish up. 

It was only of time before some major player movement happened, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, Los Angeles Kings and Philadelphia Flyers jumpstarted a potentially wild offseason with a whopper of a three-team trade Tuesday afternoon.

The Blue Jackets landed the marquee piece of the deal in defenseman Ivan Provorov. The Kings unloaded a pair of hefty cap hits in goaltender Cal Petersen and defenseman Sean Walker. The Flyers cashed in one of their top trade assets and took on salary while netting a first-round pick and respected prospect Helge Grans in the process, signaling a scorched-earth mentality to open Danny Briere’s tenure as GM.

How did each team fare on the three-way deal?

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

Receive:

D Ivan Provorov, 26, $4.725M cap hit through 2024-25 (Kings retain 30% of Provorov’s $6.75M cap hit)

While the hiring of Mike Babcock as head coach isn’t official, the idea of it suggested the Blue Jackets were attempting to flick the switch and become a competitor in the Metropolitan Division next season. Given all their horrific injury luck this past season coupled with their influx of young talent, it shouldn’t take much to improve. 

They were already slated to get a healthy Zach Werenski back, not to mention mega-prospect David Jiricek likely to push for a spot out of camp, and now GM Jarmo Kekalainen deepens his blueline further with centerpiece of the trade in Provorov. 

His moral character came into question this past season when he refused to wear a Pride jersey during warmup and started a chain reaction of teams and players backing away from Pride festivities. It was a bad look to say the least, but for the purpose of this exercise we’ll grade the acquisition from an on-ice perspective.

Selected seventh overall in the loaded 2015 NHL Draft, Provorov has been the Flyers’ workhorse No. 1 on defense pretty much since debuting in 2016-17. Across his seven NHL seasons, he led all Philly blueliners in games (532), goals (65), assists (152), points (217) and average time on ice (24:05). 

He has more or less delivered on his promise and become a reliable top-four NHL blueliner who does a little bit of everything, threatening with his offense and mixing in physicality.

But there’s a case to be made that Provorov is more of a name brand than a truly dominant NHL defenseman. He does a decent job driving the play on offense but is overrated in his defensive impact. 

Over the past three seasons, the Flyers have surrendered 55 percent of the goals with him on the ice at 5-on-5, giving him the third-worst mark among 10 Flyers defensemen logging at least 500 minutes over that span. The stat partially reflects Provorov taking on tougher assignments, but no No. 1 defenseman getting beaten for 55% of the goals is faring particularly well at his job.

With Provorov, the Blue Jackets clearly deepen their blueline with a viable minute muncher, replacing a lot of the minutes fellow left-shot Vladislav Gavrikov had given them. A D-corps including Werenski, Provorov, Adam Boqvist, Andrew Peeke, Erik Gudbranson and perhaps Jiricek looks much better than what Columbus trotted out there for much of last season. 

Provorov isn’t the needle mover he’s sometimes advertised to be, and he hasn’t become the perennial Norris Trophy threat many of us envisioned years ago. But the acquisition cost (a 1^st and conditional second, with 30% of Provorov’s salary retained) from the Blue Jackets’ perspective wasn’t too prohibitive. They already have a loaded youth crop and they’ll strengthen their pipeline further with the third overall pick in the 2023 Draft later this month.

Grade: B-

LOS ANGELES KINGS

Receive:

RW Hayden Hodgson, 27, $800,000 through 2023-24
D Kevin Connauton, 33, $762,500 through 2023-24
30% retained on Ivan Provorov ($2.025M through 2023-24)

This deal is clearly a means to an end for L.A. It was no secret the Kings had far too many right-shot blueliners and that they’d be shopping at least one this offseason; off goes Walker, checking item No. 1 off GM Rob Blake’s to-do list. 

The Kings also entered their offseason with the difficult mission of moving out Petersen’s cap hit. If they wanted any chance of (a) finding another goalie to pair with Pheonix Copley and (b) re-signing Gavrikov, they had to create significant cap space.

Blake has done just that. Factoring in the 30% retention on Provorov, the Kings freed up $5.625M on Tuesday and now have more than $13M to play with. That’s enough to work something out with Gavrikov and chase a high-impact goaltender acquisition, be it Connor Hellebuyck, California boy Thatcher Demko or a mid-tier starting option.

The Kings did surrender a promising prospect in Grans, whom they’d picked in the second round of the 2020 Draft. a big, mobile right-shot blueliner who came over from his native Sweden starting in 2021-22 and already has two AHL seasons to his name. 

Keep in mind, however, the right side of the D-corps was an area of extreme surplus for the Kings; just among their prospects, let alone their NHL roster, Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence were ahead of Grans in the pecking order.

The Kings are clearly prepping for a bigger move, and the price they paid to clear up cap space was reasonable.

Grade: B, with potential for a higher or lower grade depending on what Kings do with their cap space

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Receive:

2022 1^st round pick (22^nd overall from CBJ, originally belonging to LA)
2024 2^nd round pick (from LA)
2024 or 2025 conditional 2^nd round pick (from CBJ)
G Cal Petersen, 28, $5M cap hit through 2024-25
D Sean Walker, 28, $2.625M cap hit through 2023-24
D Helge Grans, 21, $847,500 cap hit through 2024-25 (ELC)

Well, then. that is how you arrive on the scene as an NHL general manager, Mr. Briere. The changing of the guard in Philadelphia’s front office with Chuck Fletcher’s firing reset the contention timeline, meaning Briere could shift the team’s thinking and think (very) long-term. 

Two more seasons of Provorov weren’t going to do much besides keep the team more competitive that perhaps it even wants to be right now; in shipping him out, they create a hole in the lineup that should prove difficult to fill, and that’s likely the point. The Flyers aren’t contenders and would be better off bottoming out in 2023-24.

In exchange for subtracting the underachieving Provorov and taking on Petersen’s cap hit, the Flyers got quite the haul. Landing the extra first-rounder means they’ll pick twice among the top 22 picks later this month. 

Walker’s contract expires at the end of 2023-24, so he’ll be useful as a flippable piece, perhaps at the 2024 deadline. Grans gives the Flyers some long-term upside on what is a pretty barren right side of their D-corps.

What’s not to like here for the Flyers? They strengthened their draft capital significantly, added a solid prospect and picked up another tradeable veteran asset for down the road. 

Given Grans and the draft picks are theoretical assets more so than bankable ones, I’ll stop short on the A+, but Briere’s first trade was about as impressive it comes.

Grade: A