NHL best bets: Betting on Hurricanes shots for Game 1 of Florida-Carolina

The Eastern Conference Finals get going Thursday night in Carolina between the Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. We discussed the series at more length earlier this week, and now we turn to the prop market with the game finally upon us.

There are a few player props I like Thursday night, but my favorite bet of the evening is actually a game prop on one team.

Before we get there ...

Initially, my intention was to bet on Sergei Bobrovsky's saves. I actually wrote out most of the reasoning you'll find below as support for that exact bet. Unfortunately, Bobrovsky's line opened up at 31.5, and considering the shots market available to us on Barstool, I'm pivoting there. If you don't have access to Barstool, by all means, look to Bobrovsky saves at 31.5. I just find this two-shot difference between Bobrovsky saves and Carolina shots to be the better play. If Bobrovsky has a 32-save shutout, I will of course feel quite dumb. Bobrovsky has logged 33+ saves in all five of his road starts this postseason.

Here's some goalie data you may find convincing, that I originally had below in support of Bobrovsky saves. In Round 1, Ilya Sorokin exceeded 32+ saves in all three of his starts in Carolina, averaging 33.67 saves/game. The Hurricanes successfully forced the Devils to go to their bench in net in each of the first two games, but the one home game last round they saw a goalie throughout was Game 5. Akira Schmid finished with 36 saves that night.

Carolina Hurricanes over 33.5 shots on goal (-112 Barstool)

The numbers tell a relatively clear story of what we might be able to expect tonight from the Carolina end. The Hurricanes have averaged 34.5 shots per game at home this postseason, while the Panthers have allowed 39.14 shots per game on the road this season.

Want to throw out that 53-shot performance from Toronto in Game 5 last round? I don't see why, but fine — I'll play along. Even with that game not in the picture, Florida is still averaging 36.83 shots allowed per game on the road on their playoff run. They've allowed 36+ shots in all but one road playoff game this season, and the Canes are right in line with that number, tallying 36+ shots on goal in five of six at home.

A look back at the regular-season meetings between these two only further solidifies my belief that Carolina shots are coming. In three meetings, the Canes averaged 36.67 shots per game against Florida, never once going below 34 team shots. 

Again, I do love Sergei Bobrovsky's saves tonight, but this feels like the right pivot to me.

Enjoy the game, bring on the shots!