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St. Louis Blues 2023-24 Player Projections: Kasperi Kapanen

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Owen Singh | Last updated 9/22/23

After posting 20 goals in his first full NHL season with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018-19, Kasperi Kapanen‘s career has unexpectedly failed to reach or exceed such heights, with the plague of inconsistency in his career not only more notable but perhaps more tragic, in a player with the physical ability often reflected through his game.

Despite some encouraging play with the St. Louis Blues after being claimed off waivers from the Pittsburgh Penguins in February last season, the recent publicization of his arrest in his native Finland has again reset the general public perception of him. For Kapanen, who is now on his third NHL team after being drafted by the Penguins in 2014, the ability to move beyond this off-ice blunder and inconsistent career could prove difficult.

How Kapanen Approaches the Play

Once part of the Maple Leafs’ skill revolution after the 2016 NHL Draft, Kapanen’s inability to match his early success at a consistent level results from a massive deficiency created through his own play, which somewhat suffocates the many appealing attributes he possesses. He is an excellent open-ice skater, bolstering his agility and power through incredibly mobile edges, allowing him to drive into the zone with great energy and forcing defenders back on the rush. He has a proficient ability to generate opportunities while directing momentum toward the goal, applying forceful impact on the puck. Despite initiating a high rate of rushes, they are largely uncontrolled, indicated by a controlled entries percentage slightly below average (per AllThreeZones). For Kapanen, this lies in his inability to directly attack the play on the rush through the middle with the puck and, more notably, without the puck.

Poor off-puck play manifests into the entirety of Kapanen’s play; namely, his faulty play-reading in the defensive zone results in approaching pucks at disadvantages compared to defenders, preventing him and his linemates from exiting the zone, limiting rush opportunities and creating instability in the number of chances Kapanen can generate per game. Generating offense becomes a more significant challenge with Kapanen’s lack of work rate through dangerous areas of the ice, preventing him from being productive. With this unstable source of offensive production and generation, Kapanen’s number of rush opportunities varies greatly by game, which is the most fundamental factor of his inconsistencies, which are well documented at this stage in his career.

With an above-average shooting and passing ability, Kapanen’s lack of sustained offense became particularly apparent with the Penguins last season when he was deployed with a defensively inclined Brock McGinn and an admittedly sluggish Jeff Carter across most of his total 5v5 time. Unstable structures, between the inability to retrieve pucks and move them effectively, as well as the inability to transport the puck with speed aside from Kapanen, culminated in a pitiful pace-of-play performance from that line and an expected goals share of 39.6 percent in 163.48 minutes of 5v5 ice time last season (per Evolving-Hockey).

Potential Improvements with St. Louis

However, these metrics improved with the start of his Blues tenure, where his most common linemates had greater offensive ability than those in Pittsburgh. After injuries forced the Blues to make frequent abnormal adjustments to their lineup later in the season, Kapanen saw significant minutes alongside Pavel Buchneivch and notable minutes with Jakub Vrana and Sammy Blais.

Especially with Vrana, Kapanen began to present more encouraging results, potting 14 points in 23 games with the Blues after just 20 in 43 with the Penguins, including one more goal in the 23-game stretch than in the 43 games in Pittsburgh. Kapanen’s most problematic feature, his poor off-puck play-reading, was subdued on the wing but, unfortunately, prominent at center, making an already unstable defensive structure on the Blues worse with him in the middle.

Now entering the new season, Daily Faceoff projects Kapanen to play alongside Brandon Saad and Brayden Schenn, but he could easily play alongside Kevin Hayes and Blais, depending on how Vrana will be used within the forward core. Kapanen can mobilize a line but will not produce consistently without more dynamic and forceful offensive play from his linemates, which can be provided through an aging Hayes, who has continued to perform at a high-end level in a middle-six role.

Blais, a strong possession player alongside Kapanen and Hayes will provide the Blues with a high-speed, possession-based third line with productive potential at 5v5 and a central role in destabilizing defensive cores, indirectly aiding the top six in the flow of offensive opportunity. Combined with the principle efficiency of the Blues’ offensive motor, such as high-end puck-moving talents like Robert Thomas and Torey Krug, the Blues can realistically obtain a scoring rate equivalent to that of last season; for reference, their shooting percentage of 9.69 percent (per Evolving-Hockey), last season ranked second league-wide.

Holistic Projection for Kapanen

A full season in St. Louis should serve Kapanen well, given the performances in his short sample size last season. Greater offensive stability will open more opportunities to the passing-attuned Finn, which could allow Kapanen to access a greater source of production while ensuring a more sustainable impact and minimalizing his defensive deficiencies. Estimating a 15-20-goal and 40-55-point season is reasonable for a player likely to see third-line minutes in a healthy Blues lineup.

Overall, Kapanen’s career has been marred by inconsistency, amplified by the prestige of his draft status entering the league and high-end skill. Once again, he has been forced to reset with a new club after a promising start and a furiously frustrating end at a previous club. Now, Kapanen is on the horizon of a new opportunity to detach from the patterns plaguing his career and enjoy the success the career has always alluded to in some fashion. With training camp officially underway, Kapanen is alongside a set of players who have faced struggles in recent seasons; these players are geared alongside a team eager and equipped to return to the postseason after a painful absence last season.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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