What Should Travis Konecny’s Next Flyers Contract Look Like?

General manager Danny Briere and the Philadelphia Flyers have their first big decision to make with this ‘New Era of Orange’ in the coming offseason. Star winger Travis Konecny is going to be eligible for a contract extension on July 1.

How much money Konecny gets is going to be the main point of debate, for both fans and the two sides negotiating the deal. According to NHL insider Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast, “It’s going to be a big number.”

The good news is that past precedent gives us an idea of what to expect… for the most part, anyway.

At the time of this writing, Konecny is 31st in the NHL in goals over the last two seasons with 55. Amongst right wings only, he’s seventh in that category, leaving David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, Nikita Kucherov, Clayton Keller, and Adrian Kempe as the only six with more goals. It’s also worth noting that Konecny is 54th in the NHL, and ninth amongst right wings, in points-per-game during that span with 0.95.

The one issue with finding a definitive contract comparison for the Flyers and Konecny is that there aren’t too many players of Konecny’s caliber that have signed big extensions recently. Indeed, as good as Konecny has been, he’s still not on the level of a Pastrnak or a William Nylander, for example.

The New Jersey Devils signed two of the league’s best wingers – Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier – to lucrative, long-term contract extensions last offseason. Bratt, 25, has scored 52 goals, 76 assists, and 128 points over his last 131 games. He’s well over a point-per-game pace this season and is in line for his third consecutive season of 70 or more points.

Meier, 27, has scored 49 goals, 36 assists, and 85 points over the last two years but has notably struggled in a Devils uniform. He’s also a volume-shooting power forward. As much as Konecny plays like that at times for the Flyers, he’s not that.

Bratt’s contract is an eight-year, $63 million deal that carries an AAV of $7.875 million. Bratt has a no-movement clause that starts in 2024-25, and submits a 15-team no-trade list for 2028-29 that stays in effect through the end of the deal.

Meier’s contract is an eight-year, $70.4 million deal with a whopping AAV of $8.8 million. He has a no-movement clause that starts in 2024-25, and, like his teammate, submits a 15-team no-trade list for 2028-29 that stays in effect through the end of the deal.

Konecny’s agent is likely to ask the Flyers for a number somewhere in the middle of $8.8 million and $7.875 million, though Meier – the less productive player – is making more than Bratt. On the other hand, arguing that Konecny has played better for the Flyers than Bratt has for the Devils is going to be a close debate. Konecny has never scored 70 points for the Flyers, and has played north of 70 regular season games once since the 2018-19 season.

The good news for Konecny is that he’s likely to do that this year, though it still doesn’t establish much of a precedent.

The Flyers, obviously, would love a number in the $7 million range. I think that’s the most realistic and the most fair, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.