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Which NHL goaltenders have been the best against high-danger chances in 2023-24?
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve followed this sport long enough, you’ve probably seen the gradual shift away from evaluating goaltenders based on their surface-level stats.

Standard save percentage still matters, but wins or goals against average should never be used to dictate someone’s performance. They’re team stats, plain and simple. Take Alexandar Georgiev, for example. He leads the league with 24 wins, two above Connor Hellebuyck and Thatcher Demko. But Georgiev’s save percentage is below the league average at .897, while Hellebucyk (.925) and Demko (.919) are out there chasing the Vezina Trophy.

But then you go a bit deeper and see someone like Tristan Jarry with a 12-12-4 record, a 2.48 GAA and a .916 SV. That suggests he’s doing some heavy lifting on a midpack team that’s not giving him adequate support each night, as opposed to someone like Georgiev who’ll get the win, but won’t always make it easy for the team in front of him.

None of this is groundbreaking. But the NHL’s release of its EDGE puck tracking data this year made it more accessible for fans to get a closer look at what’s actually happening. And that’s especially true when it comes to save – and goal – location, and how it impacts goaltenders across the league.

The NHL breaks shot location into three distinct categories: high-danger, mid-range and long-range. For high-danger, it’s shots within 29 feet of the center of the goal line – essentially shots from within the slot. A good example can be seen above.

For mid-range chances, everything from the slot to around the middle of the two offensive-zone faceoff dots qualifies. Everything else is considered long-range. You want to be good no matter what, but being a standout from high-danger chances in close – rebounds, tips, dekes, etc. – can be crucial in snagging wins.

And that’s something you’ll notice here. Of the top five goaltenders leading in the stat, Jacob Markstrom and Andrei Vasilevskiy are the stars. And there’s a reason for that – they’re so good when it matters. Adin Hill also has been dominant ever since the 2023 Stanley Cup final, so that’s not surprising. But nobody likely saw Martin Jones or Connor Ingram coming anywhere near this list, that’s for sure.

Here’s a look at which goaltenders have the best high-danger save percentages at the halfway point of the 2023-24 NHL season:

Martin Jones, .866 (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Blown leads aside, Jones has been excellent for a Maple Leafs team that needs all the help they can get in the crease. He was originally signed to be the team’s third-stringer who could mentor Dennis Hildeby in the AHL and play pinch duty whenever needed. Given the recent health history of both Joseph Woll and Ilya Samsonov, it made sense from the get-go. But nobody could have seen the 34-year-old making just over the league minimum coming in and playing as well as he has. He’s 8-4-1 with two shutouts and a surface-level save percentage of .922. His .866 save percentage in high-danger situations tops any goalie with at least 10 games played, and he has a perfect 1.000 save percentage from long-range chances. Difficult third periods have been a challenge for Jones this year, but the stats don’t lie: this is the best hockey he has played in nearly a decade.

Jacob Markstrom, .863 (Calgary Flames)

Another injury has put Markstrom on the sidelines for now, but he was on an absolute heater over the past 10 games. He’s 7-3-0 in that span, with all his losses coming in one-goal decisions. He’s no stranger to heavy workloads and typically does better when the pressure is on. His .863 HDSV is excellent, and he’s better than the average in just about every other meaningful capacity. The Flames need Markstrom to stay healthy if they make a run at the playoffs because he’s been a valid MVP candidate for this squad all season long.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, .858 (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Even though we haven’t seen vintage Vasy this year, he’s always been one of the best goaltenders in high-danger situations. His actual save percentage is .898, by far the lowest of his career, and a big step down from the .915 last year in what was even then considered more of a down season by his standards. He’s been average to below average in almost every other category, too. But the 29-year-old does well in close-proximity opportunities, with the mid-range level being his sore point, for the most part. After missing a large chunk of the season due to injury, look for Vasilevskiy to bounce back in a big way next season.

Adin Hill, .857 (Vegas Golden Knights)

Hill is proving last year was no fluke. He hasn’t played since suffering an injury in early December, but he still has a 10-2-2 record with two shutouts and a .933 save percentage in 15 games. His .857 SV% in high-danger situations is a significant step up from his .804 from last year which narrowly bested the league average of .802. But you can tell that the Cup run benefited Hill’s confidence, going from the team’s backup in a crowded crease to becoming one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. Hill was in the Vezina Trophy conversation before his injury, so we’ll see what happens when he eventually returns.

Connor Ingram, .854 (Arizona Coyotes)

Has there been a better story in net this year than Ingram? From nearly retiring a few years ago to becoming the backbone of the Coyotes this year, Ingram has lived up to the expectations that once made him one of the best goaltender prospects in the world. He has five shutouts and a 15-8-1 record to put him near the top contenders for the Vezina Trophy. Across the board, he’s in the upper echelon of save percentage in all situations. If the Coyotes end up making the playoffs, you can bet the 26-year-old will be the biggest reason why.

This article first appeared on Daily Faceoff and was syndicated with permission.

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