Wild facing uphill battle to re-sign longtime defenseman

The Minnesota Wild’s 2022-23 season ended with yet another first-round playoff loss last week, beginning the offseason work of general manager Bill Guerin. Guerin has a tall task ahead of him, as his mandate is to build a Stanley Cup contender around superstar Kirill Kaprizov. He must do so with the cap penalties charged for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts set to rise to nearly $15M combined.

One of the first cap casualties the Wild are anticipated to face due to the cost of those buyouts regards blueline staple Matt Dumba. The five-year, $6M AAV contract Dumba signed in 2018 is set to expire, leaving his future in Minnesota in uncertain territory. Yesterday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the "32 Thoughts" podcast that it is “much more likely than not [Dumba] tests the market” when the new league year begins in the summer.

While Dumba may not reach the $6M on his next contract that he earned on his last, it seems as though the Wild simply will not have the financial bandwidth to offer him a market-rate contract. Friedman did add that the Wild are not yet closing the door on finding a way to retain Dumba, due to how much they respect and appreciate the player, but that his return has to be considered highly unlikely.

The upcoming class of free-agent right-shot defensemen isn’t exactly overflowing with talent, and Dumba fits in as one of the top names set to be available, next to teammate John Klingberg and New Jersey Devils rearguard Damon Severson. While Dumba’s play has definitely declined since his 50-point peak in 2017-18, and his offensive production hit career-lows this past season, the 28-year-old still gave head coach Dean Evason more than 21 minutes per night, including nearly two minutes short-handed.

His 21 minutes per night is, to be fair, a noticeable decline from the past few years as Dumba hadn’t averaged below 22 nightly minutes since he was in his first few seasons as an NHL regular. As a result, this decline in tangible returns for Dumba’s play (the decrease in ice time, points production) has left the 28-year-old’s ultimate value in a relatively nebulous place.

Is he still the dynamic, at times game-changing blueliner he was in the past? Can he still reach that point on his next contract?

Or is he a defense-only blueliner at this point in his career, and if that’s the case how much value in his own end will he bring?

Those are the questions teams will have to answer for themselves when they ponder extending Dumba a contract offer in the offseason.

It’s unclear at the current moment the level of wider leaguewide interest there is in Dumba, but it’s worth noting that all it really takes is one “believer” for Dumba to get a nice payday on his next deal.

Based on the fact that the Wild remain passionate supporters of Dumba’s overall value, and the fact that the team is still reportedly holding out hope it can find a way to retain him despite its dire cap situation, it’s entirely possible that another front office holds Dumba in a similarly high regard. If that’s the case, though, then his time in Minnesota (which has thus far lasted nearly 600 games played) is likely over.