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Nathan Ake of Manchester City. New(Photo by Gareth Evans/News Images/Sipa USA)s Images

Premier League best bets: Who will survive the mid-week fixture pile-up?

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 4/23/24

This is the moment where we'd normally welcome you to the next Premier League matchday — 35 of 38, in this case — and give you some color about how we got here. Not today. Matchday 35 will roll around next Saturday as usual, but before we get there, we've got some unfinished business to handle in the middle of the week: six unplayed fixtures left over from Matchday 29 in March.

How did this happen? Blame England's FA Cup. It hosted its quarterfinal round concurrently with Matchday 29 and took precedence over those fixtures. Six Premier League teams — Wolves, Man City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Man United and Liverpool — skipped out on their league games in order to battle it out for the Cup. (Only Man City and Man United were successful; they'll contest the final at Wembley Stadium in late May.)

Each of those six teams, along with the league opponents they ghosted, must now return to play the games they missed. This is the double-edged sword of deep tournament runs in soccer: they provide money, visibility and trophy-winning opportunities, but they destroy domestic seasons by creating fixture pile-ups like this one. (Spare a thought for poor Arsenal in all of this. It didn't make a deep FA Cup run, but its Matchday 29 opponent did, so it's getting dragged into this mess without any real reward. Brutal. When it faces local rival Spurs this coming weekend, it will have played three more games than Spurs did since its last Premier League fixture.)

But where are the best bets in this mid-week chaos? We think they're here:

Everton vs. Liverpool, Wednesday, April 24, 3 p.m. ET. Everyone loves a good derby, and the Merseyside Derby is one of the best around: both Everton and Liverpool bring plenty of history to the table. This year, they're bringing storylines, too, albeit conflicting ones. Everton must win or draw to keep from getting sucked into the relegation zone, while Liverpool must win or draw to stay competitive in the title fight.

Everton undoubtedly enters this match with more to gain and more to lose. It would love nothing more than to rain on Liverpool's parade —especially if doing it seals its own Premier League survival. And while there's a clear talent gap between the two sides Everton is coming off a big victory over Nottingham Forest that should see it brimming with confidence.

We still think Liverpool will take this one in the end, but we expect it to be closer than the odds suggest. We like the look of a Liverpool win with at least one Everton goal at +175.

Manchester United vs Sheffield United, Wednesday, April 24, 3 p.m. ET. Oh, Man United. Even when it wins, it loses. Case in point: last weekend's wild FA Cup semifinal, where it gave up a three-goal lead to second-division Coventry City before eventually winning on penalties. The whole world was rooting for Coventry by the time the shootout started, and though United's eventual victory was deserved, the over-the-top celebrations from United's winger Antony were deemed tone deaf and childish.

United has labored for just about every win it's delivered in 2023/4, so you've got to think it's looking forward to this game against last-placed Sheffield United: if any victory should come easily, it's this one. Add in the fact that United's facing second-to-last-placed Burnley next weekend and things start to look even rosier for the Red Devils. Not only is a win all but guaranteed, it shouldn't need its best players to get it done.

With that in mind, let's look to United's bench for a potential goalscorer, since coach Erik Ten Hag is likely to rotate his team heavily against Sheffield United. We've got our eyes on the aforementioned controversial celebrator Antony. Why? We'd love to tell you it's because he hasn't started for United in the league since early April and that this could be a prime opportunity for Ten Hag to give him a few sympathy minutes. It would be true! But it's also true that calling Antony out as "not one of United's best players" will make him seethe ... and if we can place a logical bet while making the contemptible Antony mad, you'd better believe we will. He's at +210 as an anytime goalscorer.

Brighton vs. Manchester City, Thursday, April 25, 3 p.m. ET. It's been a long time since these two last met in the league: the return fixture was all the way back in October. (City won it 2-1 and Manuel Akanji received an uncharacteristic red card at the end.) Plenty has changed for both teams since then, but one thing remains the same: the two teams' styles mesh beautifully and should make for a wildly entertaining game.

City is under pressure here, with Arsenal and Liverpool chasing it for the title, and City doesn't tend to buckle under pressure. It does, however, tend to get pretty physical when the going gets tough. Dutch defender Nathan Ake will likely be the man facing Brighton's tricky right-sided attackers Simon Adingra and Pascal Groß ... with that in mind, betting on him to commit at least two tackles feels reasonable at +150.

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