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It looks like we have some more northwest wind swell on the way for the weekend. Another storm system, currently in the Gulf of Alaska, is set to move down the West Coast and give us some wind swell on Sunday. The difference this time is that the actual storm system itself will track further to the south compared to last time. This means that rain could be on the menu for Saturday and Sunday.
If we do see rain, it looks like it'll stay light and remain mostly concentrated north of Los Angeles. I think San Diego will go completely unaffected by any precipitation that this system may bring with it. Overall, this weekend doesn't look too crazy despite the rain chances. We'll start Friday off with lingering wind swell from earlier in the week. This swell gradually fades and leaves behind nothing but a background Southern Hemisphere swell in its place for Saturday.
As we round Saturday night into Sunday, things appear to stay on the quiet side. Models are showing the next round of wind swell moving in Sunday mid-morning although historically these systems have moved in earlier than what models anticipate. I would expect waves to begin increasing before the sun comes up on Sunday. It looks like this swell will peak sometime Sunday afternoon or evening with the largest waves being around 4 feet near San Diego.
Periods look mostly poor this weekend other than on Saturday when we experience nothing other than the background Southern Hemi ground swell. Other than this, the rest of the weekend will be characterized by wind swell so expect periods to stay just under 10 seconds for Friday and Sunday. Friday and the first half of Saturday also start off with light and variable winds but this will quickly change as a moderate onshore breeze picks up Saturday afternoon and sticks around through Sunday evening.
Best Bets
- Sunday afternoon will see the largest waves at about 4-feet in size off the coast of San Diego. This is from a wind swell so periods will stay under 10 seconds and a 10-15 mph onshore breeze is expected.
- Friday morning should see slightly smaller waves for San Diego and Ventura but winds will be much less of an issue. Periods still look poor at under 10 seconds.
- Saturday morning should see much better conditions with 14 second periods and light winds along southwest facing shorelines. A 2-foot southwest ground swell is expected around this time.
FRIDAY
Friday morning looks fairly peaceful across the shore with waves generally staying between 1 and 2 feet. The only real exception to this is San Diego where 3-4 ft waves could be present due to a lingering wind swell from earlier in the week. Thankfully, the winds associated with this wind swell will be long gone by this point. Light and variable winds will be in place with speeds around 5 mph. Periods, however, stay short with most averaging under 10 seconds for Friday morning.
Things don't change by very much as we progress into the afternoon. Waves continue to decline as the wind swell backs off further. San Diego should return to 3-foot and under waves by this point with anything over becoming unlikely. Winds remain light and variable through Friday evening. Periods stay short in areas that see the biggest waves with south facing shorelines seeing a return to 14 seconds.
SATURDAY
The wind swell almost completely disappears by this point with everyone, including San Diego, seeing a return to just 2-foot waves. The good news is that as the wind swell becomes obsolete, periods increase to 14 seconds across the entire region for Saturday morning. Winds stay mostly light and from the southeast through the morning hours with rain holding off until the afternoon.
The next wind swell approaches the area Saturday evening and with that, rain chances increase for spots north of Los Angeles. Any rain should be light but it could end up ruining surf opportunities for places like Ventura and Santa Barbara. On top of the rain, a moderately strong onshore wind is expected to develop with speeds around 15 mph north of LA and around 10 mph for areas south. The incoming wind swell lags behind the winds and rain so we should finish Saturday with 2-foot waves still in place for everyone.
SUNDAY
Waves increase overnight Saturday and by Sunday morning, we should start to see 3-foot heights pop up along our west facing shorelines. In particular, Ventura and San Diego will see the larger waves with Manhattan Beach largely missing out on the new wind swell. Periods drop back below 10 seconds along our west facing shorelines with the onshore winds continuing. Winds look strongest south of LA at around 15 mph for Sunday morning.
Rain is still a possibility all day Sunday although most of it should stay concentrated north which means that San Diego will most likely stay dry through the weekend. Waves increase by about another half-foot or so from the morning to the afternoon. San Diego, and possibly Ventura, will top 4-feet in wave height with periods remaining under 10 seconds for the afternoon. The onshore wind persists all day long with speeds ranging from 10 to 20 mph.
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